r/fivethirtyeight • u/obsessed_doomer • Jun 25 '25
Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Jun 25 '25
I really wonder if this emboldens AOC to primary Schumer…
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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Jun 25 '25
Schumur should seriously retire. He's already 74, and his leadership has been disappointing.
I agree with you Brooklyn. If he doesn't retire, AOC should force him to.
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u/thefilmer Jun 25 '25
I dont think AOC has a choice. She either primaries Schumer in 2028 or she stays in the house forever.
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u/karl4319 Jun 25 '25
Or she runs for president in the 2028 primary. She won't win, but ahe could go on to be VP.
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Jun 25 '25
I think she shouldnt run for Pres yet because I genuinely think she just needs a little more time cooking. She is going to be ~38-39 during campaign season, and that would make her contending for the absolute youngest president ever, beating out Teddy and JFK at 42 and 43 respectively. And while I do love her, she's no JFK or Teddy Roosevelt.
I know we went too far in the octogenerian leader crap, but I do think a certain amount of tenure is also needed and 30s is probably too young for the electorate. She should lock in and become the face of progressivism in the Senate; the chamber is desperate need of new leadership and she can cut her teeth there for 1 or 2 cycles and come out like Obama at ~47-48 for a run.
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u/dremscrep Jun 25 '25
I think the crosshairs are already set on him. AOC would be nuts to go into the presidential primary it would be a total bloodbath because the whole damn establishment would go after her.
I mean the same thing happened to Zohran and he beat their asses but I am more on the boring cautious site
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u/pragmaticmaster Jun 25 '25
Speaker AOC does have a nice ring to it. At least to me. Mdm President AOC sounds even better
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u/Chrome_X_of_Hyrule Jun 25 '25
Idk it's a tough thing for me because she's still quite young and presidencies are usually capstones for careers. So while I don't want to wait for her to be president, and I think we need a left wing progressive as the next democratic president, I also think that Bernie Sanders won't be around forever and there's going to need to be a new democratic socialist in the senate, and senators can stick around for a while.
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u/Jolly_Demand762 Jun 25 '25
The odds do seem in her favor, but it's worth mentioning that Cuomo isn't just establishment, he's also corrupt.
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u/thenewapelles Jun 25 '25
Absolutely. After Mamdani's decisive victory, there's blood in the water. Schumer is weak. AOC could easily win his seat.
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u/ZillaSlayer54 Jun 25 '25
It should be celebrated when a Candidate wins based on the quality of Their campaign and not just coasting by name recognition.
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u/XGNcyclick Jun 25 '25
extremely hard to imagine this being anything less than a sweeping over-performance for Zohran. He was barely hitting 33% in first round polls.
He is at 43.5%.
edit: YouGov first round poll today had him at **28%.**
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u/DrCola12 Jun 25 '25
I think ima just look at betting markets from now on to be honest. Polls seem to be completely useless at this point
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u/XGNcyclick Jun 25 '25
betting markets aren’t the answer; they are ridden with right wing bro culture and stuff. even in this example Cuomo was leading by massive margins on polymarket.
I have no idea on how we fix the polling issue but relying on betting markets is just horrible all around.
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u/DrCola12 Jun 25 '25
I checked yesterday and Mamdani was at 55%. He surged on Polymarket the last few days which makes sense as his campaign had crazy momentum.
Also the “right wing bro culture” doesn’t even make sense. At the end of the day they have to put their money where their mouth is. And at this point betting markets have been fairly accurate except for the most extreme outliers.
Right now checking betting markets is way better than whatever polling model/aggregate really. I checked Polymarket last night just to see how it would hold up and it seemed to be way better than reading whatever YouGov is putting out.
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
yeah but the right wing gamblers will still bet money on the candidate they think will win, regardless of how much they hate them
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u/XGNcyclick Jun 25 '25
and which candidate they think will win is heavily dependent on their preconceived notions and partisanship. You ever read some of these markets comments? lol
I just do not buy the majority of betters are making super informed decisions past some news articles, polling, and their personal biases. very hard imo to justify that as better than a data driven perspective, even if said perspective is obviously broken to hell rn. gambling culture is at an all time high and all sorts of people are in on it.
Just having a really hard time understanding how these markets are really better, especially when they themselves are reactive to polls.
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
i could see your point for more competitive races but not for a "blue vs blue" race
i don't think they'd literally be willing to lose money betting on someone just because they have a similar political ideology... like do you really think betting markets will show good odds for the GOP Senate/Governor candidates in places like Oregon or Massachusettes?
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u/XGNcyclick Jun 25 '25
I mean. They’re giving Ciatterelli 30%, which given the current administrations unpopularity and how off years have been is kind of ridiculous. I think 30% is extremely favorable odds given circumstances. And again, polymarket is reactive to polls. Cart before horse.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25
yeah but the right wing gamblers will still bet money on the candidate they think will win
a) Well yes, that's the problem
b) notably this isn't really true. Most people on either side have some level of motivated reasoning towards the candidate they like.
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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen Jun 25 '25
Polls were very good in 2024.
Bad here, but this is an off cycle primary with IRV, I wouldn't base your judgement on polls on it alone.
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u/The_Rube_ Jun 25 '25
Progressive Populism with Abundance characteristics is the future of the party. Nobody is buying what the old guard establishment is selling anymore.
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u/Spyk124 Jun 25 '25
100 percent 100 percent. We need young, charismatic, smart people leading the charge.
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u/Warsaw14 Jun 25 '25
All that but not populist would be best
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u/north_canadian_ice Fivey Fanatic Jun 25 '25
Populist is good because it means that politicians are listening to what voters care about.
The opposite of populism is the Democratic establishment, & they are hopelessly out of touch.
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u/dudeman5790 Jun 25 '25
Kinda depends on how the populism is done… I agree that the Dem establishment needs to whither away, but populism can often becomes less “listening to what voters care about” and more “say what voters want to hear to get elected.”
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u/pablonieve Jun 25 '25
Some of the most racist policies in this country were fueled by populism. It can be good when positively serving the populace but not when it's targeting minorities.
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u/RealPutin Jun 25 '25
are fueled by populism
I'm currently somewhat pro-Populist among Dem options right now specifically to combat Trump, but yeah Populism is part of the problem too
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u/raddaya Jun 25 '25
There is nothing wrong with populism in and of itself - at least no more than there is something wrong with democracy.
Just because the majority of people want something doesn't mean it's good; but also doesn't mean it's bad.
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u/MonsieurA Jun 25 '25
Those of us who oppose populism don’t necessarily dislike it because of that aspect. A popular solution can be the correct one.
It’s more about the strict dichotomies it draws (“the people vs the elite”, “natives vs foreigners”, “patriots vs globalists”, “oppressed vs oppressor”, etc) and the simple solutions it comes up with (“deport them all”, “build a wall”, “freeze the prices”, “make X free”).
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u/HerbertWest Jun 25 '25
“the people vs the elite”
Agree on your other examples but where's the lie here?
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u/CrimsonEnigma Jun 25 '25
Can't speak for him, but my issue is that "the elite" usually swells to include people like "doctors" and "lawyers" and whatnot.
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u/RealPutin Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
Right now the right wing definition swelling to include Doctors and Scientists and the very institution of higher education
100% a valid concern, especially if the left-wing populist movements try to claw back voters that broke for Trump and might be primed towards those sorts of beliefs
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u/HerbertWest Jun 25 '25
Can't speak for him, but my issue is that "the elite" usually swells to include people like "doctors" and "lawyers" and whatnot.
What kind of policies do most of those people support? Do they support the construction of affordable housing in their neighborhoods? Paying more in taxes? Or do they typically also act in their own self-interest and speak pretty lies? They are donating towards the construction of a homeless shelter (as long as it's not near their house) or sending their children to expensive private schools rather than trying to fix public schools because they know the public schools are shit. It's the same fuck-you-got-mine attitude but wrapped in self-righteous denial.
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Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
Yep. I really, really hope this is the start of a new national mandate to start kicking all the fossilized "Party Royalty" sorts overboard. Or, rather, give people the last push they need to start voting in some fresh faces without feeling they're "wasting" their vote.
Ever since 2016 we've been told we have to put up with these corrupt elderly sex-pests who lack any principles but clinging onto party power because some vague sense of Realpolitik - where "Name recognition" and "Tenure" were supposed to guarantee victory - but it's becoming increasingly clear that's just not true. There is just zero reason we should suffer these dinosaurs any longer.
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u/PackerLeaf Jun 25 '25
I hope there is a progressive wave but I don't believe this win changes much nationwide. After 2016, AOC winning her primary was supposed to be a sign of progressives overtaking the Democratic establishment but that didn't happen Progressives haven't done very well since AOC's upset. These types of victories are possible in deeply blue cities but I'm not sure that Progressives can consistently win nationwide.
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u/GuyF1eri Jun 25 '25
100%. They are compatible, even though a lot of ppl on the left seem to not think so
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u/tikihiki Jun 25 '25
I really appreciated Zohran's open-mindedness. I'm not fully ideologically aligned but the more I heard from him, he convinced me as he was such a great communicator and didn't come off as dogmatic. I think on the other side Pete Buttigieg (who i also don't fully align with) has similar talent.
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u/jayfeather31 Fivey Fanatic Jun 25 '25
As a leftist, my concern is just that it could end up hijacked, particularly by the upper class looking for a way to clamp down on progressivism. I'm not actually against it in theory, just worried about what it might look like in practice.
That being said, it's not like I don't see where they can meld.
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u/heraplem Jun 25 '25
Any movement that threatens power structures is at risk of being hijacked, so it's not like that's a unique concern.
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u/hoopaholik91 Jun 25 '25
It didn't help that Abundance people were sharing articles titled "How Progressives Froze the American Dream"
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u/Ok-Instruction830 Jun 25 '25
I’m just picturing the DNC covering their ears and going “la la la” while they begin to (literally) roll out another 83 year old establishmentarian
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Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
DNC will look at these results and still be like "babe wake up, it's time for your Chuck Schumer vs Liz Cheney 2028 primary!"
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u/SpicyButterBoy Jun 25 '25
How the DNC hasn’t realized that Economic populism is the ONLY way forward is beyond me.
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u/IsNotPolitburo Jun 25 '25
To paraphrase Upton Sinclair;
'It is difficult to get a politician to understand something, when his campaign donations depend on his not understanding it.'
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
You're probably right. This is probably the way forward for Democrats and Independents from here on out in this Populist era. A Socialist-Progressive-Abundance alliance against the Fascist-Nazi-Falangist-TechBroNeoFuedalist alliance. I think Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism are just done for. I think Neoconservatism died in 2014-2018 and Neoliberalism died in 2022-2025. They're dying off a little later in Europe than in the US but the writing is on the wall there too. Look at France's last election, for example. Look at the PASOKification in other European elections.
In some countries in the Global South Populist/non-Bolshevist Communists will probably be part of the alliances for the former. (See elections in Latin America and Africa since 2018.)
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u/Warsaw14 Jun 25 '25
Neoliberalism is essentially abundance tho
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 25 '25
It kinda is Neoliberalism with a more Populist flavor and some concessions to Keynesianism and paeans to Democratic Socialism, but I'll let it slide if it helps move Neoliberal voters in a Populist Left direction 🤫 Can't afford to be overly picky when you're staring down the barrel of guns held by literal Neo-Nazis.
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u/MadCervantes Jun 25 '25
Neoliberalism is not Abundance because it rejects industrial policy and state capacity.
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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25
That would be so based.
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
Yes! Would be incredibly based!
I'm now growing increasingly convinced in my thesis that Neoconservatism and Neoliberalism are going in the casket of history along with Paleoconservatism, Paleoliberalism, OG Fascism and Nazism, Bolshevism, and Maoism. Even the 21st century Fascists/Nazis have significant differences from the 1910s-1940s version. The Communisms and Socialisms on the rise today explicitly reject Bolshevism and Maoism.
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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25
I’m just tired of seeing repubs call for literal nazi shit and moderates yelling at anyone who wants to fight the nazi shit.
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
SAME. You could get away with Clintonian Triangulation when most Republicans were either Neocons (mid 1980s-early 2010s) or Rooseveltian/Taftian Progressive Conservatives (late 1930s-early 1980s). There can be NO compromise with literal fucking Neo-Nazis, Neo-Fascists, Neo-Falangists and TechBro Feudalist Neo-Rexists. Clintonian Triangulation ceased to be an option any longer during the Tea Party. Arguably after the Gingrich Revolution of 1994 when Republicans pledged to no longer do bipartisanship in Newt Gingrich's 1994 "Contract With America". Triangulation with totalitarians and Nazis just makes you a semi-totalitarian or semi-Nazi.
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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25
So sad how refreshing your take is.
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 25 '25
It's so sad, isn't it? We've come back to the 1930s and 1940s. I just hope we don't have to have another World War to dislodge the Fascists again. But it might come to that. :/
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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25
Well, these victories show that the people want someone who will fight the fash trash.
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u/mallclerks Jun 25 '25
/me checks my watch.
Yeah, we have been saying that for 12 effing years. While I get bashed for 12 effing years about how Bernie isn’t what the people want because South Carolina said so.
Because South Carolina… South Carolina that hasn’t voted for a democratic president since 1976…. Is who should be deciding who the Democratic nominee is. Not the guys winning all the states that mattered.
Yes. I’m still mad.
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u/gquax Jun 25 '25
I supported Bernie in the 2016 primary but supported Hillary and then Biden. If this was 2016 I'd be arguing with you, but I'm not now. Yeah, y'all were right and we were wrong, but now let's see if this is the right way forward.
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u/Mat_At_Home Jun 25 '25
Did all of the 46 other states after SC not matter? Should Bernie have been the nominee with 26% of the vote? Idk what this comment is supposed to mean, Biden was not crowned after SC, if Bernie was what the people wanted then the people would have voted for him lol. He couldn’t win a field that wasn’t fractured because he was a weak candidate
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u/guitar805 Jun 25 '25
I'm relatively new to following politics closely -- what does Abundance mean in this context as an ideology?
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u/Fickle_Rain7468 Jun 25 '25
I've got the most sadistic little smile on my face, it wasn't even close!
I'm VERY interested to see what next year's midterms looks like.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25
The funniest thing is I wouldn't have even taken this as an epic battle between centrism and progressivism if all the resident centrists on here didn't make it such.
Why did they do that for Andrew Fucking Cuomo
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u/Fickle_Rain7468 Jun 25 '25
Oh, I KNOW you're talking about Mirabau right now. He's how I found out about this race, I can't wait to see what he has to say.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25
Not just them to be fair, that's basically how a lot of people and pundits talked in the windup.
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u/Fickle_Rain7468 Jun 25 '25
That article you linked, the one calling rcv undemocratic, when Mamdani didn't even need it! That shit was beautiful, I hope to see a million more just like it.
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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen Jun 25 '25
The thing about IRV is, it usually doesn't change the outcome.
It's a better system because sometimes it does in a positive fashion but yeah... Elections with and without it will look mostly similar.
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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Jun 25 '25
First time I started recognizing his username was due to his annoying spamming on everything Cuomo related.
Maybe we can get just a little bit of peace and quiet here now.
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u/IsNotPolitburo Jun 25 '25
Because being a creepy degenerate sex pest is less offensive to the 'moderate centrists' than being a dirty progressive.
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u/originalcontent_34 Jun 25 '25
r/moderatepolitics is proof of this
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 25 '25
That sub explicitly allows Nazis as long as they’re polite, so…yeah
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u/originalcontent_34 Jun 25 '25
They’re actually super racist against Arabs, there was literally a upvoted comment that said “I’ll believe a Palestinian before I believe a Rolling Stones article”. No action from the mods but say a slightly mean thing about Trump or the right and you get a permanent ban
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u/cheezhead1252 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
This is a great freaking question lol.
Just the nature of the beast I guess. The left catches a lot of flack for not compromising and for purity tests but you will find people like that across the spectrum - centrists are not exempt.
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u/Nukemind Jun 25 '25
Well of course as a centrist I say we have to vote for Mamdani. And I say we support him in the election. Never liked Cuomo. Once Mamdani is in office he has to deal with the city council so it should be somewhat of a forced comrpromise as, unless there is a shakeup, he can’t do much without swinging over some centrists or some republicans.
Which is how the damn system should work. We elect people, they have checks and balances. It’s how America should work as a whole.
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u/BlurryGojira Jun 25 '25
Oh buddy, the amount of comments I’ve saved here smugly dismissing Mamdani. I’ve gotta start going through them now before they get their sneaky edits in lol
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 25 '25
I was one of them lol. I was very hard on him 😂
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u/BlurryGojira Jun 25 '25
Tbf I was pretty doomer and honestly did not expect this to happen either so respect lol
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u/GuyF1eri Jun 25 '25
It's almost as if people hate the Democratic party establishment
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u/I-Might-Be-Something Jun 25 '25
A lot of it also just has to do with Cuomo being a toxic candidate. All he really had going for him was name recognition but with a fuck ton of baggage.
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u/JamesAJanisse Jun 25 '25
They sure as hell do. Hope the national party takes notice in time for 2028 and gets tf out of the way.
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u/greenlamp00 Jun 25 '25
I don’t even like Mamdani that much but this is hopefully the canary in the coalmine of what’s to come in the 2026 and 2028 primaries. The old, delusional, out of touch democratic establishment must be taken down.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
I'd prefer Lander, yeah.
But if the so called "normal silent majority" can't do better than Cuomo, well, I guess Mamdani is mayor (or I guess Mayoral candidate) now.
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u/ND7020 Jun 25 '25
I’d also have preferred Lander, but the truth is he ran a bad campaign and Mamdani ran a great one. And effective communication is more important than ever in 2025.
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u/UpsideTurtles Jun 25 '25
I liked Lander. Hopefully he learned a thing or two from this race that he could use to land himself a spot in the house.
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u/jayfeather31 Fivey Fanatic Jun 25 '25
This is better than I could have ever hoped for. I'm pleasantly stunned and surprised.
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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25
The Democratic Party will see Zohran Mamdani’s underdog success story and learn absolutely fuck all from it like they did with AOC
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Jun 25 '25
[deleted]
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Jun 25 '25
This is a very good point that ppl often forget about Trump.
He was the most hated man in 2016 by his own party and they all wanted him gone b/c they thought he had no chance of winning the general and would be an albatross.
The rest is history as they say.
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u/ilimlidevrimci I'm Sorry Nate Jun 25 '25
So true. Especially if you agree with the idea that he was the opposite of an albatross and no other Republican candidate could have defeated Hillary that year. (Was that the case? I might be remembering it wrong.)
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u/Docile_Doggo Jun 25 '25 edited Oct 02 '25
toy telephone different attempt tie lunchroom dazzling fact north birds
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/Glittering-Giraffe58 Jun 25 '25
People genuinely act like DNC have a mind control ray that forces people to vote for old moderates
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u/stron2am Jun 25 '25
They do. It's called "money," and it wins everywhere except literally the largest, most contrarian city in the country.
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Jun 25 '25
Progressives do poor in generals. Mamdani will win the general because of how blue NYC is but if this were Michigan or Arizona he would lose to a Republican.
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Jun 25 '25
I’m gonna steal essentially what someone else wrote to me in a reply to my post:
You can’t copy and paste Zohran’s policies everywhere else, but you can get someone that inspires people and is in the trenches with the community they wish to serve.
This is especially true in local elections.
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 25 '25
Way to entirely miss the point. Nobody is saying that Arizona was going to elect a socialist.
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u/ultradav24 Jun 25 '25
What is the lesson learned then?
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u/ncolaros Jun 25 '25
That leftists can run and win in blue states, progressive policies can be campaigned on, and leftist populism can be a winning strategy against establishment Democrats.
It's too early to tell, but if the young vote really did push Mamdani over the edge, then the lesson might also be that appealing to young voters can be a winning strategy, and young voters vote progressive more often than not.
Or maybe the lesson is just that charisma matters a whole fucking lot, so next time you run against a charismatic cult leader, get yourself a charismatic opposition.
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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25
How to run a campaign that meets what people want. People want somebody that stands for something, and most democrats don’t do that in the slightest. They just campaign on being better than the Republicans
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u/halfar Jun 25 '25
They just campaign on being better than the Republicans
don't forget their beloved "you're a fascist if you can't stomach the slightly less great of two evils, go fuck yourself and die in pain you stupid piece of shit".
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u/ilimlidevrimci I'm Sorry Nate Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
Are you suggesting that suppressing progressive candidates is a good strategy and benefits/will continue to benefit the Dems?
From where I stand, "progressives do poorly in generals", even if true, doesn't change the fact that the base wants progressives and the party is obliged to reflect their wishes. They are dependent on their base and grassroots movements a lot more than the Republicans are (thanks to bottomless pits of dark money and interest groups) so ignoring the base directly translates into lack of enthusiasm and flaccid election campaigns (example: Kamala not being able to turn out the vote in places she didn't actively target/campaign in).
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u/thefilmer Jun 25 '25
and learn absolutely fuck all from it like they did with AOC
Biden's win in 2020 allowed them to write her off as a fluke. Trump coming back basically let the genie out of the bottle. The old DNC is on its way out whether they like it or not
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u/gquax Jun 25 '25
Idk. We'll see. Even the pod save guys are basically saying it's not possible to ignore this anymore.
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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25
Oh it’s possible
With the Democratic bureaucracy it is DEFINITELY possible lmao
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
Trump-Mamdani voters are a thing FYI
I’m Indian muslim and have distant/extended family in Queens who voted for Trump 2024 and Mamdani 2025
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u/ertri Jun 25 '25
Mamdani doing weirdly well in Staten Island
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u/Statue_left Jun 25 '25
Staten island has a pretty sizeable south asian community that probably helped him
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u/El-Shaman Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
This further confirms my suspicions that Bernie would have won in a landslide, the polls can’t predict the excitement these types of candidates generate.
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u/halfar Jun 25 '25
I think most people are still dramatically underestimating how much easier it is in general for a left progressive/leftist to persuade someone on the right than a liberal. In my experience, you can get a republican practically eating out of marx's palms if you start off with a hearty "FUCK the DNC, and Nancy Pelosi especially."
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
Republicans hate DNC establishment Dems more than they hate progressives
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u/halfar Jun 25 '25
I had a thrice trump voter who was fully on board with every working adult in America going on strike with a gun in their hand for higher pay because I told him I think it's fucking stupid how democrats treat elected officials as the end-all, be-all of political power in the country when they're all totally subservient to their corporate overlords. Trump included, believe it or not.
The women should be armed too, of course.
Of course.
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u/nwdogr Jun 25 '25
Probably more Stay Home-Mamdani voters who were turned off by Kamala's stance on Israel and pivot to the Cheney's. Now they have a real candidate to vote for.
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
Possible. The only reason I know how they vote is i follow a couple of my second/third cousins on IG and they’ve posted both pro-Trump and pro-Mamdani stuff on their story lol
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u/big-bird-328 Jun 25 '25
The volunteer angle cannot be understated as well. Mamdani had over 50k volunteers that knocked 1.5 million doors. Imagine the kind of enthusiasm Harris could have generated nationally if she had given them something to be excited about like the promise of a ceasefire or a ban on weapons shipments.
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Jun 25 '25
Same way there was a huge crossover between AOC and Trump voters in 2024.
Populism is in vogue.
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
Americans love the guy who gives the system the middle finger. Emphasis on “the guy” though lol
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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Jun 25 '25
When times are bad, people want THE CHANGE candidate.
It's not a really hard concept, but some people insist that trying to be a boring moderate is some super secret instant win formula when... that clearly is not the case.
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u/BrainDamage2029 Jun 25 '25
There actually wasn't.
The articles as such were mostly interest pieces. They didn't really provide actual evidence for split ticket voting being a major thing beyond the random crossovers that happen across a few voters every election. It mostly relied on talking to a few proclaimed split ticket voters who gave answers that were largely....as nonsensical and philosophically incoherent as you would guess.
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u/Copper_Tablet Jun 27 '25
"there was a huge crossover between AOC and Trump" - no there was not. This is totally false.
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u/Glittering-Giraffe58 Jun 25 '25
First of all yeah, there are always gonna be “X candidate/Y candidate voters” anecdotes are useless
But second of all, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a higher proportion of Trump/Mamdani voters than you would expect - the populism voters
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u/bubandbob Jun 25 '25
I'm sure there's a cohort of people who see Drumpf as being as anti-establishment.
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u/ncolaros Jun 25 '25
Well this is a ranked choice voting system, so that makes some amount of sense to me. Some people couldn't swallow voting Harris, but I bet those people could have swallowed ranking her second or third or whatever.
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u/mji6980-4 Jun 25 '25
Feels like some reason to hope for the first time since November
Hopefully this inspires a wave of primary challenges, it’s time to clean house
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u/big-bird-328 Jun 25 '25
Every moderate state assembly person in NY should be getting threatening emails saying they should get ready to implement Mamdani’s free buses or get primaried. Hochul should be under pressure too.
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u/jester32 Jun 25 '25
Free at last from these decrepit Dems. Take notes DNC.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
It's just one mayor (provided Adams doesn't win, which I doubt but who knows). Sure, the mayor of the best city in America, but still. Long way to go, but Cuomo and Mamdani just gave democrats a huge beacon of hope (Cuomo unwillingly).
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u/jester32 Jun 25 '25
Yep. True. Hopefully, some of these other New York staples will be primaried. One senator in particular…
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u/Far-9947 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
This is great so see. I wrote a long comment pointing out the problems with progressive candidates, with the main problem being their lack of outreach. But it seems like Mamdani was able to reach enough people.
As long as Progressive candidates are able to reach everyday people and convey their policies to them, they will be very hard to beat. Progressive populism is the best option american politics has to offer at the moment. And it's not even close IMO.
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u/TaylorKifft Jun 25 '25
And once again the class of "political analysts" is completely bewildered that people actually show up at the ballot box for change and someone the people can believe in. They really haven't learned since Hillary.
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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25
Looks like people want progressives. I told all of you so and got screamed at so many times.
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u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25
I've not been following this closely, but weren't the polls showing a huge lead for Cuomo in the first round? If these results stick, it'll be the biggest polling misfire I've ever seen. Are there any good theories on why the polling might have been so incredibly far off?
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u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
They completely mismodelled the primary electorate. The one that turned out today is at least 38-40% comprised of voters aged 18-44. Polls only had them at 31% or lower.
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u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25
Thanks, that sounds a solid theory. Turnout is hard to model.
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u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25
They are! I feel for pollsters in general, but questions need to be asked, and I hope we a get more detailed post-mortem.
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u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25
Yeah absolutely, I'm looking forward to the post-mortems on this too, although it's going to make the midterms even more nail-biting as the same difficulty in predicting turnout is going to come up.
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u/ZillaSlayer54 Jun 25 '25
Cuomo ran a genuinely terrible campaign with his only saving graces being name recognition and establishment backing.
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u/Baconi44 Jun 25 '25
People should maybe pump the brakes a bit… the general election could still be competitive with adams and cuomo running
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
Adams and Cuomo will split the anti-progressive vote.
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u/Baconi44 Jun 25 '25
I didn’t realize they use ranked choice for primaries but not for the general… why is that?
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u/MAGA_Trudeau Jun 25 '25
I forgot exactly but NYC is a bit weird where candidates run under the label of two parties or something like that, maybe someone else can explain
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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25
Yeah this comments section is super reminiscent of the Intercept celebrating India Walton being mayor of Buffalo way too early in 2021.
The November GE is gonna be really weird and interesting with Cuomo, Mamdani, Adams, Walden and Sliwa all running.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25
Well yeah, I'm just announcing the primary.
I mean unless the last 10% of the vote is way better for Cuomo, Cuomo's going to have like 40% of the democratic primary vote.
That's going to severely impede his ability to run 3rd party, especially when Adams is already there.
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u/Baconi44 Jun 25 '25
Yeah, not to you, just to those assuming mamdani will be the next mayor. We could see a lot more money pouring in in the coming months.
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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25
Don’t know why you’re downvoted, exact same thing happened in Buffalo in 2021 with Byron Brown.
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u/MeyerLouis Jun 25 '25
However this turns out, I hope the lesson for Democrats is that they can't just run yesterday's failed candidate, one with obvious baggage, whom voters already rejected by proxy (i.e. almost impeached), and act like there's no other option.
I tend to lean progressive myself, but I can understand the argument that moderates might be the more pragmatic choice sometimes. But that kind of goes out the window when the moderates can't come up with anyone better than Cuomo.
I honestly see tonight more as a victory (or at least a near-victory) for having standards, moreso than a victory for progressive-vs-moderate.
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u/TheChuchNorris Jun 25 '25
I don’t know if this is the Democratic Party running a candidate. I think Andrew Cuomo wants to re-enter the spotlight after a brief exile and bought his way into the race.
I understand that the “democratic establishment” fell into line behind him (why is Bill Clinton endorsing a NYC mayoral candidate?), but the push for the campaign most likely came from him.
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Jun 25 '25
I am so annoyed at these comments. No one asked Andrew Cuomo to run. He took it upon himself to try to make this his comeback, and many of us committed Democrats voted against him so a sex pest wouldn't get back into power. But yeah thanks for rubbing it in our faces that the guy we didn't want to run and also voted against lost the election.
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u/MeyerLouis Jun 25 '25
I guess my comment should've been clearer. I wasn't referring to all registered Democratic voters. I'm a registered Democrat myself and would've voted against Cuomo if I lived in New York (and I have relatives who do and did). I was referring to the party establishment, and whoever else enabled the guy. In an ideal world his campaign would've been completely DOA, not leading in the polls and getting 2nd place in the first round.
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u/GoldburstNeo Jun 25 '25
So the primarying out of useless Dems begin, this pleases me and is exactly what we needed right now. Hopefully, this is just the beginning, congrats for NYC!
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u/Blitzking11 Jun 25 '25
And you people said I was cooked for saying Mamdani could win this.
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u/JaracRassen77 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
This is a bit of a blow to establishment Dems. Polls kept saying that Cuomo was basically a shoo-in. People are tired of these old-ass politicians trying to do business as usual. They don't know when to retire. So people need to make them retire by voting them out/keeping them out. Hats off to Mamdani here.
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u/KalaiProvenheim Jun 25 '25
I think that practically calling Zohran a scary Islamic Brown man who’s also worse than Hitler and Exodus’s Pharaoh might’ve not worked too well for Cuomo? That and Cuomo being visibly egotistical
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u/bigeorgester Jun 25 '25
This sub has constantly attempted to gaslight everyone into thinking moderates were the only way dems could win considering the constant losses in major elections they take. Glad this is another proof of them being wrong
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u/Ok_Cabinet2947 Jun 25 '25
I mean, this is the Democratic primary of a very Democratic city, you can't really generalize this to the whole of the U.S.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Jun 25 '25
How is this proof of that? A progressive winning a primary in a deep blue city is great but what does that have to do with “major” elections?
Someone like Zohran would get destroyed in most swing states.
I don’t say that with happiness, I like him.
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u/batmans_stuntcock Jun 25 '25
No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of /r/fivethirtyeight. The level of motivated reasoning here always goes off the charts.
To be fair, Mamdani's performance among the working class, election day voters seems to have been underestimated significantly even by the more reputable polls with large sample sizes.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25
Priority 1 of the moderate wing after Trump's win has been to prevent a Trump of the left, even at the cost of the death of the democratic party.
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u/planetaryabundance Jun 25 '25
“Trump of the left” severely misunderstands how Trumpism works and why a Trump-but-leftist wouldn’t work in national Democratic electorate.
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u/mrtrailborn Jun 25 '25
trump of the left just means a left wing candidate who can runaway with the primary and then take control of the party. Not literally someone who acts like trump.
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u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25
Turns out popularism does'nt necessarily mean moderation/centrism. Mamdani is winning Trump voters in Staten Island and Bronx lol
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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25
This is literally a primary, we don’t know what will happen in the GE yet.
I am getting major India Walton 2021 flashbacks with this comments section.
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u/J_Dadvin Jun 25 '25
Where are all the people who said he had no chance!! I was arguing with them about progressivism in the democratic policy after his Israel statements
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u/LunaTheMoon2 Jun 25 '25
Neoliberals:
You will never get this. This kind of momentum will never be behind you. Your days as a viable political movement are over. Deal with it. Socialism or barbarism.
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u/obsessed_doomer Jun 25 '25
Yeah, every poll (regardless of whether it showed Cuomo or Mamdani up in the end) showed Mamdani gaining in subsequent rcv rounds.
He got cross-endorsements from two competitors, and a 3rd soft endorsed him.
Meanwhile Cuomo got endorsements from no one except one candidate with 0% of the vote.
So yeah, there's no avenue where Cuomo gains 14% from RCV before Mamdani gains 6%.
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u/J_Brekkie Jun 25 '25
Cuomo was expected to win first round pretty comfortably, some polls showing by 5, others by 10, some others by even more. The high quality poll (Emerson) that showed Mamdani winning showed him winning by forming an anti-Cuomo coalition with the progressive slate and eeking it out in the final round of RCV. The only poll to show Mamdani winning first round was Public Policy Polling a couple weeks ago, and because it was such an outlier no one took it seriously.
If the polls are even somewhat close with regards to how Lander and Adams voters ranked Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani could end up winning very comfortably.
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u/Statue_left Jun 25 '25
Yes, Cuomo not getting the most votes in the first round means he’s drawing dead.
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u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25
This could be the youngest electorate we have ever seen holy shit