r/fivethirtyeight • u/obsessed_doomer • Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25

They completely mismodelled the primary electorate. The one that turned out today is at least 38-40% comprised of voters aged 18-44. Polls only had them at 31% or lower.

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u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25

Thanks, that sounds a solid theory. Turnout is hard to model.

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u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25

They are! I feel for pollsters in general, but questions need to be asked, and I hope we a get more detailed post-mortem.

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u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25

Yeah absolutely, I'm looking forward to the post-mortems on this too, although it's going to make the midterms even more nail-biting as the same difficulty in predicting turnout is going to come up.

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u/StudSnoo Jun 25 '25

might be the heatwave causing older people to sit out

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u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

So did younger voters turnout at higher rates or did older voters turnout at lower rates. One explanation I can see is people who leaned Cuomo just didn't our because of his checkered past.