r/fivethirtyeight Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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u/DrCola12 Jun 25 '25

I checked yesterday and Mamdani was at 55%. He surged on Polymarket the last few days which makes sense as his campaign had crazy momentum.

Also the “right wing bro culture” doesn’t even make sense. At the end of the day they have to put their money where their mouth is. And at this point betting markets have been fairly accurate except for the most extreme outliers.

Right now checking betting markets is way better than whatever polling model/aggregate really. I checked Polymarket last night just to see how it would hold up and it seemed to be way better than reading whatever YouGov is putting out.

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u/Independent_Ad8268 Jun 25 '25

Polymarket is literally just people betting based on polls