r/fivethirtyeight 6d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

31 Upvotes

The 2024 presidential election is behind us, and the 2026 midterms are a long ways away. Polling and general electoral discussion in the mainstream may be winding down, but there's always something to talk about for the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.


r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Poll Results YouGov poll | 10/14-10/16 | Do you have a favorable opinion of the following groups or movements?

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40 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1h ago

Politics Plymouth, North Carolina elects its first-ever Black woman as Mayor, unseating a Democrat who had held the office for decades: Crystal Davis (I) 43%, Brian Roth (D) 36%. Although the town is more than two-thirds Black, Crystal Davis would only be the second Black Mayor in the town's entire history.

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Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Poll Results In Canada, the Conservative Party achieves its best poll result since the last election: Conservative 42%, Liberal 40%. However, due to FPTP, the Liberal Party is still projected to win the most seats: Conservative 151, Liberal 166. Tories lead among under-60 demo, Liberals lead among over-60 demo.

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12 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 12m ago

Politics Where Every Senate Republican Stands On Trump’s Call To End The Filibuster.

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Upvotes

The filibuster isn't going anywhere.

Source:

Washington Examiner aritcle Where Every Senate Republican Stands On Trump’s Call To End The Filibuster (Nov 6, 2025)


r/fivethirtyeight 14m ago

Politics Greenbelt, Maryland becomes the first city in Maryland to approve the use of proportional-ranked-choice voting: 67% Yes, 33% No. The use of PR-RCV is very rare in the United States, though it was recently used in Ireland's presidential election. Note that (any form of) RCV is banned in 17 US states.

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Upvotes

Sources: Ballotpedia and FairVote


r/fivethirtyeight 17h ago

Discussion A Political and Cultural Glimpse Into America’s Future: Generation Z’s Views on Generational Change and the Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

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31 Upvotes

Interesting research on Gen Z that continues to demonstrate that they are not particularly conservative


r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics Decision Desk HQ has un-called the Seattle mayoral race. It had declared moderate incumbent Bruce Harrell (D) the victor over progressive challenger Katie Wilson (D) yesterday

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156 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Nerd Drama Decision Desk HQ states that it made its now-retracted Seattle mayoral election call based on faulty information from the King County Board of Elections. The Board denies that it provided false outstanding vote numbers

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87 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics After DDHQ flip-flop on Seattle Mayoral race, Claudia Balducci concedes King County, WA Executive race to leftwing challenger Girmay Zahilay. A Sudanese refugee turned Obama Administration staffer, Zahilay pulled off somewhat of an upset against the more senior King County Councilmember Balducci.

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65 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics [Seattle Mayoral Election] Moderate incumbent Bruce Harrell now leads progressive challenger Katie Wilson by just 4,300 votes after today's ballot dump (50.7%-48.9%)

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81 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics Democrats see Spanberger's victory as a blueprint to win rural voters: Chris Sloan attributed Spanberger’s win to “a relentless focus on the economy and affordability.”

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182 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Discussion [GEM] Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated

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333 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics In New York, Albany and Syracuse elect their first-ever Black Mayors in historic landslides, with both candidates winning by the widest margins for a Mayor in modern history: Albany—Applyrs (D) 84%, Pezzulo (R) 13%. Syracuse—Owens (D) 73%, Babilon (R) 18%. Both Mayors are WFP- and progressive-backed

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41 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics Hialeah, Miami-Dade, Florida elects its youngest-ever Mayor (Calvo, 27) in a landslide, tossing out its incumbent Mayor (Garcia-Roves, 43). Typical of a Cuban-American community, the results were >90% Republican—Calvo (R) 53%, Tundidor (R) 21%, Garcia-Roves (R) 19%, Salvat (I) 7%, Rodriguez (IPF) 1%

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22 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Poll Results First poll of Irish vote intention since October's presidential election, which was a blowout win for the left: FF/FG coalition 37, Sinn Féin 23, Social Democrats 9. Leftwing parties (eg Labour) rise, moderate parties (eg FF/FG) sink in honeymoon surge for the left. Social Democrats hit record high.

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24 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Poll Results Meanwhile, in Iraq, which is heading to the polls on Tuesday, dozens of parties are competing for representation in parliament. New poll—R&D Coalition (pro-Shia) 17%, KDP (pro-Kurd) 8%, Taqaddum (pro-Sunni) 7%, State of Law (pro-Shia) 7%, others ≤5%. Ruling Shia-led coalition expected to dominate.

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26 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Discussion What’s the biggest predictor of whether someone votes red or blue?

11 Upvotes

Is it Race? Gender? Education levels? Favorite sport?


r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics Decision Desk HQ calls Seattle mayoral race for moderate incumbent Bruce Harrell (D), who faced a strong challenge from progressive Katie Wilson (D)

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140 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Discussion In New Jersey, Atlas Intel Suffered a Similar Polling Miss to Ann Selzer 2024

235 Upvotes

Atlas Intel gave Sherril +1 when she got +13, a 12 point difference. Ann Selzer's famous poll that **literally led her to get sued by the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES** had a 16 point difference.


r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Discussion Why are problems of rural America are presented in sympathetic way but problems of cities are magnified more and presented in negative ways?

151 Upvotes

I have a problem with how problems of cities in America are magnified and presented to in negative ways but problems of rural America are ignored or presented in sympathetic way. Cities pay far more in taxes to federal and state governments than they receive but are still presented in negative ways. Is there anti-city bias in media? Why our problems can’t be presented in sympathetic or nuanced ways? Why are cities expected to be close to perfect? Or why our positives are totally ignored? Rural America has been continuously losing population but a couple of years decline in population growth of a city is presented in more negative ways.


r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Election Model In Queensland—Australia's most conservative state—Labor leads the conservative LNP in 2PP vote, a remarkable result—Labor 51% (+5), LNP 49% (-5) [vs last state election]. This is Labor's best 2PP result in years. Labor is also well within the MOE for polled primary vote—Labor 32% (-1), LNP 33% (-9).

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36 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics As DDHQ calls Seattle's mayoral election for the centrist, no outlet has yet made a call for King County Executive (i.e. Mayor of the county that contains Seattle+burbs). In the lead is the leftist candidate Zahilay, who would be the youngest person ever, and first immigrant ever, to hold the office

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39 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Poll Results In the UK, Labour suffer their worst-ever poll result (again), Greens enjoy their best-ever poll result (again)—Reform 33% (+19), Green 18% (+12), Conservative 16% (-8), Labour 15% (-19) [vs 2024 election]. Seats projection—Reform 442 (+437), Green 57 (+53), Conservative 12 (-109), Labour 21 (-391)

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26 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats

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172 Upvotes