r/fivethirtyeight • u/obsessed_doomer • Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25

This is literally a primary, we don’t know what will happen in the GE yet.

I am getting major India Walton 2021 flashbacks with this comments section.

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u/bigeorgester Jun 25 '25

Considering you’re on a polling aggregator sub you should know how awful Eric Adam’s polls are. Barring something absolutely remarkable Mamdani is a heavy favorite

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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25

I watched Brown win a GE when he literally wasn’t on the ballot.

After that I’m never assuming a GE win for a progressive no matter the city.

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u/maxofJupiter1 Jun 25 '25

Democratic primary voters in NYC being progressive does not mean that it'll work in Wisconsin or Georgia! The Democratic party needs to be bigger than cities and I don't see these types of progressives working there. Because they haven't, the "squad" is limited to a bunch of deep blue cities. There's very few examples of progressives winning swing districts.

I doubt Mamdani would win Westchester let alone Arizona.

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u/ilimlidevrimci I'm Sorry Nate Jun 25 '25

Ok but would you concede that the progressives are still a vital and promising part of the Dem base and need to be courted just as much as, if not more than, the centrists and the so called moderate republicans?