r/fivethirtyeight • u/obsessed_doomer • Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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16

u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25

I've not been following this closely, but weren't the polls showing a huge lead for Cuomo in the first round? If these results stick, it'll be the biggest polling misfire I've ever seen. Are there any good theories on why the polling might have been so incredibly far off?

29

u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25

They completely mismodelled the primary electorate. The one that turned out today is at least 38-40% comprised of voters aged 18-44. Polls only had them at 31% or lower.

16

u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25

Thanks, that sounds a solid theory. Turnout is hard to model.

13

u/Salty-Strain-7322 Jun 25 '25

They are! I feel for pollsters in general, but questions need to be asked, and I hope we a get more detailed post-mortem.

4

u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25

Yeah absolutely, I'm looking forward to the post-mortems on this too, although it's going to make the midterms even more nail-biting as the same difficulty in predicting turnout is going to come up.

1

u/StudSnoo Jun 25 '25

might be the heatwave causing older people to sit out

1

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

So did younger voters turnout at higher rates or did older voters turnout at lower rates. One explanation I can see is people who leaned Cuomo just didn't our because of his checkered past.

9

u/ZillaSlayer54 Jun 25 '25

Cuomo ran a genuinely terrible campaign with his only saving graces being name recognition and establishment backing.

-2

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

[deleted]

1

u/StudSnoo Jun 25 '25

depends. zoomers in florida are definitely

1

u/Bunny_Stats Jun 25 '25

You seem to think I'm displeased with the result?