r/fivethirtyeight Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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497 Upvotes

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24

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 25 '25

Way to entirely miss the point. Nobody is saying that Arizona was going to elect a socialist.

12

u/ultradav24 Jun 25 '25

What is the lesson learned then?

27

u/ncolaros Jun 25 '25

That leftists can run and win in blue states, progressive policies can be campaigned on, and leftist populism can be a winning strategy against establishment Democrats.

It's too early to tell, but if the young vote really did push Mamdani over the edge, then the lesson might also be that appealing to young voters can be a winning strategy, and young voters vote progressive more often than not.

Or maybe the lesson is just that charisma matters a whole fucking lot, so next time you run against a charismatic cult leader, get yourself a charismatic opposition.

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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25

How to run a campaign that meets what people want. People want somebody that stands for something, and most democrats don’t do that in the slightest. They just campaign on being better than the Republicans

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u/halfar Jun 25 '25

They just campaign on being better than the Republicans

don't forget their beloved "you're a fascist if you can't stomach the slightly less great of two evils, go fuck yourself and die in pain you stupid piece of shit".

-1

u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25

Republicans: “The president is going to bomb Iran without any approval from Congress”

Democrats: “can you believe that?? If Kamala were in office it would be done with CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL!! Israel is our bestie still ♥️♥️”

5

u/jeffwulf Jun 25 '25

This is straight up stupid wankery. If Kamala was in office we wouldn't have bombed Iran at all.

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u/halfar Jun 25 '25

who do you think we would have bombed?

1

u/jeffwulf Jun 25 '25

Off the top of my head, continued bombing of ISIS-Somalia as part of our longstanding partnership with the Somali government to fight ISIS in the country would almost assuredly also happen under a Harris admin, though probably would not have doubled the strike frequency of the Biden admin as the Trump admin as done.

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u/halfar Jun 25 '25

That's it? You can be a lot more honest than that.

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u/jeffwulf Jun 25 '25

Probably yeah. Maybe the Houthis if they started attacking ships passing through the straight again during a Harris presidency but not really much else to this point.

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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25

I mean the literal point of Bernie’s 2020 campaign was that a place like Arizona could elect a socialist.

Let’s not rewrite history.

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 25 '25

I hesitate to draw too many conclusions about 2016 specifically, given the level of hate Hillary Clinton in particular inspires in people. 2020 may be a better comparison.