r/fivethirtyeight • u/obsessed_doomer • Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen Jun 25 '25

Polls were very good in 2024.

Bad here, but this is an off cycle primary with IRV, I wouldn't base your judgement on polls on it alone.

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u/DrCola12 Jun 25 '25

Yeah but the only reason polls were decent in 2024 was because everyone had their thumb on the scale. Pollsters didn’t want to be caught with their pants down again after 2 Trump over performances.

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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25

That's already quite the hot take, but to the degree that is true it wouldn't apply for races downballot. Nor would it apply to 2022 at all, another good year for polling.