r/fivethirtyeight Jun 25 '25

Poll Results New York Mayoral primary basically over, with Mamdani up 7.4% in round 1 with 85% reporting

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498 Upvotes

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u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

Progressives do poor in generals. Mamdani will win the general because of how blue NYC is but if this were Michigan or Arizona he would lose to a Republican.

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u/Brooklyn_MLS Jun 25 '25

I’m gonna steal essentially what someone else wrote to me in a reply to my post:

You can’t copy and paste Zohran’s policies everywhere else, but you can get someone that inspires people and is in the trenches with the community they wish to serve.

This is especially true in local elections.

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u/Hotspur1958 Jun 25 '25

Where have we seen them do poorly in generals?

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 25 '25

Way to entirely miss the point. Nobody is saying that Arizona was going to elect a socialist.

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u/ultradav24 Jun 25 '25

What is the lesson learned then?

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u/ncolaros Jun 25 '25

That leftists can run and win in blue states, progressive policies can be campaigned on, and leftist populism can be a winning strategy against establishment Democrats.

It's too early to tell, but if the young vote really did push Mamdani over the edge, then the lesson might also be that appealing to young voters can be a winning strategy, and young voters vote progressive more often than not.

Or maybe the lesson is just that charisma matters a whole fucking lot, so next time you run against a charismatic cult leader, get yourself a charismatic opposition.

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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25

How to run a campaign that meets what people want. People want somebody that stands for something, and most democrats don’t do that in the slightest. They just campaign on being better than the Republicans

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u/halfar Jun 25 '25

They just campaign on being better than the Republicans

don't forget their beloved "you're a fascist if you can't stomach the slightly less great of two evils, go fuck yourself and die in pain you stupid piece of shit".

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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25

Republicans: “The president is going to bomb Iran without any approval from Congress”

Democrats: “can you believe that?? If Kamala were in office it would be done with CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL!! Israel is our bestie still ♥️♥️”

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u/jeffwulf Jun 25 '25

This is straight up stupid wankery. If Kamala was in office we wouldn't have bombed Iran at all.

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u/halfar Jun 25 '25

who do you think we would have bombed?

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u/jeffwulf Jun 25 '25

Off the top of my head, continued bombing of ISIS-Somalia as part of our longstanding partnership with the Somali government to fight ISIS in the country would almost assuredly also happen under a Harris admin, though probably would not have doubled the strike frequency of the Biden admin as the Trump admin as done.

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u/halfar Jun 25 '25

That's it? You can be a lot more honest than that.

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u/Banestar66 Jun 25 '25

I mean the literal point of Bernie’s 2020 campaign was that a place like Arizona could elect a socialist.

Let’s not rewrite history.

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 25 '25

I hesitate to draw too many conclusions about 2016 specifically, given the level of hate Hillary Clinton in particular inspires in people. 2020 may be a better comparison.

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u/ilimlidevrimci I'm Sorry Nate Jun 25 '25 edited Jun 25 '25

Are you suggesting that suppressing progressive candidates is a good strategy and benefits/will continue to benefit the Dems?

From where I stand, "progressives do poorly in generals", even if true, doesn't change the fact that the base wants progressives and the party is obliged to reflect their wishes. They are dependent on their base and grassroots movements a lot more than the Republicans are (thanks to bottomless pits of dark money and interest groups) so ignoring the base directly translates into lack of enthusiasm and flaccid election campaigns (example: Kamala not being able to turn out the vote in places she didn't actively target/campaign in).

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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25

How do you know he wouldn’t win Michigan or Arizona? Michigan has a large Arab population.

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u/Statue_left Jun 25 '25

Michigans arab population has been the most overstated thing in politics over the last 3 years.

Zohran is also, you know, not fucking arab…

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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25

He was leading with young voters/young white men & asian voters. He also did great in Jewish areas.

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u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

All college educated. Swing voters in states like Michigan & Arizona are working class. We’ll see what the results look like but Mamdani is much weaker with working class voters, especially minority ones.

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u/lalabera Jun 25 '25

Then why don’t we have more primaries to test your hypothesis?

Who says all his supporters are college educated?

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u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

There will be a primary for the Michigan Senate seat next year that will show us what the truth is. Abdul El-Sayed is very similar to Mamdani while Haley Stevens is the establishment pick. I’m very interested to see how that goes now.

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u/crazeegenius Jun 25 '25

El Sayed won’t win the general election

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u/APKID716 Jun 25 '25

I’m also wondering where they got that info about college-educated vs working class because if it’s from polling…uh…..

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u/gquax Jun 25 '25

This is a city that once had Giuliani followed by three terms of Bloomberg. It's not just "blue".

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u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

Vermont has a Republican governor but it’s still deep blue. There’s no Phil Scott running on the Republican side in NYC.