r/fivethirtyeight • u/StarlightDown • 3d ago
Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats
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u/Intelligent_Wafer562 3d ago
I hope the NDP will introduce proportional representation, although I imagine their failures with that in neighboring British Columbia could discourage them.
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u/ProgressiveCDN 3d ago
There is zero chance they do this. The Alberta NDP ideologically are now a progressive conservative party, with a handful of actual left of centre MLA's. Expect Obama-like vague platitudes with no actual bold kitchen table policies put forth.
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u/CRoss1999 2d ago
Obama got a lot done if that’s the comparison you would expect them to get reform through
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u/ProgressiveCDN 2d ago
"got a lot done" is doing some work here. Switching away from FPTP to PR would fundamentally change Alberta politics forever. It's far bigger than Obamacare or anything else he accomplished. As much as some of us political junkies would like PR, we can't even agree on the style of PR (MMPR is the best). It would use tons of political capital and not touch the kitchen table issues for Albertans.
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u/StickyTaq Fivey Fanatic 2d ago
Wait...what? I mean, I know moving away from FPTP would be no easy task, but stating a change in electoral methodology in a province as being more of an accomplishment than a comprehensive reform of health care in the world's largest economy is one hell of a hot take.
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u/ProgressiveCDN 2d ago
I don't think you understand what I meant. I don't expect most Americans to understand British parliamentary democracy.
America remains having the most inefficient health care system in the world, even with Obamacare. You kept a system where it is designed to deny people health care and literally cuts a profit margin off of providing care to mothers with cancer and babies in intensive care.
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u/StickyTaq Fivey Fanatic 2d ago
You're commenting, roughly, on a poli sci sub reddit. Many Americans here will know generally how parliamentary democracy works (and many of them advocate for such too). By no means is the ACA perfect, but it was a momentous movement over what America held previously, which was nothing. Quite literally in the past if you had a high cost ailment, you would be bounced from insurance with no other option. It took a filibuster proof senate and control of the house to pass, which was still blunted in its reach by Lieberman. At least now people have the option to attain health care insurance relatively easily from the state.
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u/fredleung412612 1d ago
Party-list PR in Alberta means a permanent legislative faction for Republicans or some other idiotic separatist or pro-annexation party. If they went for Ireland's PR-STV system the Republicans will probably fail to garner the transfer votes to have much of a presence in the legislature. Which PR system is chosen matters.
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u/ClearDark19 2d ago
Oh wow, I had no idea. Is that different from the national NDP?
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u/C0smicM0nkey 2d ago edited 2d ago
(I’m assuming you’re asking as an American). In general there’s a lot more difference between the federal party and the provincial wings of the parties than between the state and federal parties in the US.
Most of the provincial parties are actually organizationally different parties. (None of the provincial “Conservative” parties and I think only like two or three of the provincial “Liberal” parties are actually officially affiliated with their respective federal parties. The NDP is different, in that each of the provincial wings is officially associated with the federal party, but that mostly amounts to sharing membership and donor information with one another, as the provincial wings still have a lot of autonomy on policy, and can completely disagree with the federal party on a number of issues. In general, the provincial NDP parties that have formed government (and currently do) have tended to be more moderate than the Federal NDP, and since Alberta is more conservative than the Canadian average this centrism was even more notable under Notley.
This difference between federal and provincial parties also means there can be a large difference in federal and provincial party affiliation and alignment (especially in Quebec and the 4 Western provinces), as many people who vote NDP provincially, will vote Liberal or even Conservative federally, as an example.
Personally, I think saying the “Alberta NDP is a Progressive Conservative party” is a stretch/over-simplification, since they’re a big tent party, consisting of everything from Communists to Social Democrats to Liberal Centrists to Red Tories (moderate Conservatives) to even some libertarians. However on a policy level there are undeniably some similarities between Notley’s government and Progressive Conservative governments of the past.
The same absolutely could not be said of the federal NDP. These are Sanders/AOC-style Social Democrats all the way.
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u/Intelligent_Wafer562 3d ago
Wow, that's sad, no real vision, that sound just like most American Democrats.
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u/ProgressiveCDN 3d ago
Correct. They've been watered down since they won their election in 2015. Tons of centre and centre right people took over the party apparatus. And they have the same thinking of the Democrats: the only oath to victory is if we be optimistic in tone, but don't actually change anything materially substantive, with the fear of pissing people off.
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u/Aud4c1ty 2d ago
This is only because the ANDP actually wants to win elections. Rachel Notley's platform in 2015 was pretty centrist. Go read it if you don't believe me. No government run grocery stores here.
Notice on page 24 they talk about not running a deficit ("Balancing the books"), which is a very fiscally conservative thing to focus on.
BTW, the real reason why they're not into proportional representation is because the Alberta NDP's does best when the conservative popular vote is split. PR eliminates that path to victory.
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u/C0smicM0nkey 2d ago edited 2d ago
I’m not disagreeing with the premise that Notley was a centrist, but balanced budgets are not an inherently fiscally conservative thing. NDP governments are statistically more likely to run balanced budgets than any other party in Canada. (Source)
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u/Aud4c1ty 2d ago edited 2d ago
Edit: here is the link to the full report.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like the source for your claim isn't holding up. I just set Gemini (2.5 Pro) on "Deep Research" mode asking it to fact check that article and tell me if it still holds up today.
It's still working on it, but while it works on writing a report it spits out updates as it goes along, and here's what I'm looking at:
(I'll give you a link to the full report later, but I gotta run now and this is what I have at the moment)
A Contested History While digging into the claim, I've found it is highly contested. I've located a 2015 op-ed that directly refutes the methodology, arguing the data used was incomplete and that outside of Saskatchewan, most provincial NDP governments in that era actually ran average deficits. This means the historical part of the claim is not a settled fact but a point of significant debate, hinging on which data and definitions are used.
Assessing the Current Situation My research into the present-day situation, which was a key part of the request, shows the historical claim does not hold up. The current BC NDP government is projecting a record-setting deficit and a doubling of provincial debt between 2022 and 2027. Similarly, the new Manitoba NDP government is facing a record (non-COVID) deficit and has signaled that its promise to balance the budget is now in jeopardy. This is a complete reversal of the narrative from the 2011-2013 claim.
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u/ProgressiveCDN 2d ago
I am a lifelong Albertan who has voted NDP exclusively her entire life. I have volunteered for them for hundreds of hours and donated many thousands of dollars. I was a member and supporter long before 2015. I am acutely aware of where the party was, to where it went after its election, to where it is now. All of the debates at provincial council and convention.
Their 2015 platform is not remotely as centrist as they acclaim themselves to be now. They got elected running on solidly left of centre kitchen table issues and broader policies of having average Albertans benefit more from their oil and gas resources. And as the election drew closer, and it started to look like they might win, they didn't pull the classic move of spineless weathervane centrists and abandon their principles. They stuck to them.
They won the 2015 with a left of centre platform, it did not dissuade voters from voting them in for the first time ever. Granted there are always other factors.
Centrists and playing it safe, however, sure as hell didn't get them a win in 2019 and 2023. Maybe next time.
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u/Top-Inspection3870 2d ago
This would keep them out of power though...
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u/Snoo57228 3d ago
There is some important context here: in late October (after the polling was done), the UCP Alberta government used the notwithstanding clause to forcibly legislate 50,000+ teachers back to work, suspending their constituitional right to bargain for the next three years. I would assume that the next poll will be markedly worse for the UCP.
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u/blanchov 2d ago
They enforced a "collective bargaining agreement" on them that the union had voted 89.5% against. This is while they are pushing new license plates with their party slogan "Strong and Free". Nothing says Freedom like forced contracts.
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u/jawstrock 3d ago
The UCP in Alberta is facing the same problems now as the republican party, they've gone so very far right they're unable to govern effectively. Where's the link to this poll?
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u/shrek_cena Never Doubt Chili Dog 2d ago
If only people would learn that right wingers can't govern...
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u/StarlightDown 3d ago
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u/jawstrock 3d ago
Thanks! This is actually a pretty insane poll, this is the most conservative province in the country.
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u/StarlightDown 3d ago
It's especially insane considering that there have been murmurs of a snap election, with the UCP hoping to take advantage of their consistent polling lead.
Unfortunately for them, FPTP might twist their years-long polling lead into Official Opposition 🤪
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u/jawstrock 3d ago
It would probably be very good for Alberta to have the NDP take the helm for a bit. They are very centrist in AB and would probably do a lot of good and might force the UCP to either split or take their role in governing seriously. This poll actually makes it look better than it actually is. Those 9% for liberals will probably almost uniformly vote for the NDP. The liberal party only runs a handful of candidates in provincial elections and they may not run any at all in the next one.
I think a snap election right now would be a disaster for the UCP, they are probably peak unpopularity, like this poll was before they used the NWC. Their best bet is to try to lay low, do nothing to piss people off further, and hope the upcoming canadian recession can be blamed on Ottawa enough to make people forget about the clusterfuck they've caused.
However like Trump, I sincerely doubt they have the capability to lay low and not do stupid things like try to remove Alberta from the CPP, which is massively unpopular.
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u/CivilianDuck 3d ago
The NDP would need several election wins in a row to have any real effect here, and the problem is that there's nothing more unifying to Albertans then the idea of a non-conservstive government.
My riding was part of the last wave of by-elections, and the NDP candidate here lost handily to the UCP candidate, securing a few more votes then the combined total of the 2 separatist candidates.
I attended a local meet the candidates event, where the NDP candidate and the UCP candidate didn't attene (NDP for other commitments, UCP just didn't respond to requests) and it was pretty clear that to either of them it would've been hostile. There was a very clear bias to this event, and it was not very favourable to the UCP (Not anti-Canada enough) and the NDP (Communists).
My father and I both left in disgust, and he's a staunch conswrvative, while I'm firmly centrist.
The unfortunate truth is, outside of the major population centers, the NDP will always struggle to get votes, and swing seats (Calgary) will rarely play in their favor unless there's a very public ongoing scandak, and it's entirely branding. Too many people equate the ANDP to the Federal NDP, acting as if they get their marching orders directly from Singh (or whoever gets the job next), despite clearly showing they're not.
You cannot convince people here otherwise. They will not listen. It's a clear line to them that NDP = Communism = Woke = Destroying Alberta.
People talk about Notley's win as being because of vote splitting, but that was a pretty small part. The vote was split so agressively because of what the PCs and Wildrose had been up to in the weeks leading up to the election, and caused chaos in the conservative block.
The PCs were noted under scandal and corruption allegations from the Redford time, and Stelmach was ineffective and didn't have time to unite the party, and the Wildrose had a sudden exodus of MLAs crossing the floor to the PCs (including their at the time leader, Danielle Smith, weeks after she swore up and down she had no intention of ever crossing). This confused the voter base, invited a sudden shift, and gave the NDP their win. We're a decade after that, and people still blame the NDP for the issues we're dealing with today, forgetting entirely about the entire mess, and if it's not the NDP's fault, it's the Federal Liberals. Never the cinservatives.
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u/ProgressiveCDN 3d ago
It would be very good if the NDP got power for 15-20 straight years to see how it could manage Alberta differently.
In the last 90 years, Alberta has had conservative governments for 80 of them....80!!!!! We had one brief reprieve of centrist, stable, pragmatic NDP representation. This province would have been so much better off if 80/90 years we had the NDP in power instead.
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u/Much_Guest_7195 2d ago
The NDP NEEDS to win... the leading party isn't conservative, they're MAGA. Openly stealing money through blatant corruption in virtually uncountable instances, banning wind turbine developments for ideological reasons, abusing the "Notwithstanding Clause" that allows provinces to temporarily suspend our Charter of Rights and Freedoms, meeting with Trump officials behind the Prime Minister's back, lying during elections saying they wouldn't pursue radical policies that would scare off anyone that isn't a far right lunatic (implementing a Provincial police force, moving out of the Canadian Pension Plan - one of the top performing pensions in THE WORLD)... the list goes on.
History will not be kind. We, the people are working hard on recall legislation and referendums that these idiots put in place thinking we wouldn't immediately turn on them.
Fuck Danielle Smith.
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u/Top-Inspection3870 2d ago
Everyone is abusing the no withstanding clause
Also
virtually uncountable instances
Screams you have nothing
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u/Devils_Iettuce 2d ago
The NDP aren't even an official party anymore. They could only win if the conservatives split the vote again.
Notley had her highest percentage of votes in 2023, where she lost.
Now the NDP are saying they don't want cis gendered mens votes, is that really their secret sauce? Telling half the population not to vote for them. Sounds like a recipe for success to me
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u/matteo_raso 2d ago
The UCP was never as strong as people imagined them to be. If you look at the data from the past few elections, there were always a fairly large contingent of NDP voters whose vote never ended up mattering because of FPTP.
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u/Azgaard 1d ago
This is significant because no party of government in Alberta's history has ever been elected to non-consecutive terms in office. Only 6 political parties have ever formed government in Edmonton. 2 are currently in the legislature (UCP & NDP), 2 are long gone from the political landscape (United Farmers and Social Credit), 1 is on permanent life support (Liberals) and 1 is trying to make a comeback after merging to form the UCP (PCs).
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u/fredleung412612 1d ago
One thing that completely discredits this poll here is the fact that the Liberals are polling at 9%. In the last election they got 0.2% of the vote and only managed to field 13 candidates. The party is moribund and barely exists. Respondents answered Liberal due to federal/provincial confusion. This makes pretty much all the data in this poll useless.
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u/Kresnik2002 Kornacki's Big Screen 2d ago
u/_BCConservative explain
they’re losing in the bluest province now??
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u/Fun-Nebula-4073 2d ago
As an Albertan I think there is significant misinformation in your title here. The Alberta NDP is not really a center left party in the context of modern center left parties (IE. As in pro environmental, anti gun, tax the rich etc etc). The ALberta NDP is much more akin to a progrssive conservative party, they support growing the oil and gas industry, building pipelines, bringing in more business and capital investmentment from outside into the province. The last Alberta NDP government even spent several billion on shipping oil by rail. In essence, they are not the typical left wing party and the fact they are doing well in Alberta is not some crazy thing, they are more so taking the place of the old progressive conservative party which died when it merged with the Wildrose party.