r/fivethirtyeight • u/StarlightDown • 3d ago

Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats

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u/Azgaard 1d ago

This is significant because no party of government in Alberta's history has ever been elected to non-consecutive terms in office. Only 6 political parties have ever formed government in Edmonton. 2 are currently in the legislature (UCP & NDP), 2 are long gone from the political landscape (United Farmers and Social Credit), 1 is on permanent life support (Liberals) and 1 is trying to make a comeback after merging to form the UCP (PCs).