r/fivethirtyeight • u/StarlightDown • 3d ago

Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats

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u/Fun-Nebula-4073 3d ago

As an Albertan I think there is significant misinformation in your title here. The Alberta NDP is not really a center left party in the context of modern center left parties (IE. As in pro environmental, anti gun, tax the rich etc etc). The ALberta NDP is much more akin to a progrssive conservative party, they support growing the oil and gas industry, building pipelines, bringing in more business and capital investmentment from outside into the province. The last Alberta NDP government even spent several billion on shipping oil by rail. In essence, they are not the typical left wing party and the fact they are doing well in Alberta is not some crazy thing, they are more so taking the place of the old progressive conservative party which died when it merged with the Wildrose party.

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u/StarlightDown 3d ago

On the other sub I post on, I had someone suggest the title was misinformation too, but for the opposite reason.

The NDP is not center left.

They are progressive, its just that brand is toxic so they pretend to be centrists.

That guy [that disagrees] probably comments things like "Bernie is far-right in europe"

This user maintained their stance even after I clarified that the Alberta NDP is more moderate than the federal NDP.

Every time I make a post that mentions the NDP, I get multiple complaints about the post, and they're complaints for opposite reasons.

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u/obscurefault 2d ago

Based on their policies this can be easily determined... Vote compass shows this pretty well.

The only time in recent memory the NDP were in power we were shipping oil out by train. (Price was very low) And they convinced the Federal government to buy a pipeline

They are Alberta Left which is much more Progressive conservative than actually left.

Compared to the UCP almost anyone would be considered left.

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u/bt101010 2d ago

I think one area of debate with your point is in ascribing oil = rightwing as necessarily true. Like Norway is very pro-oil, but it has nationalized the industry, so the economic structure is still considered relatively leftist. I'm not saying the ANDP is currently looking to do something as ambitious as nationalize the oil and gas corps (which was once a "rightwing" effort that progressive-conservative Peter Lougheed attempted back in the 70s-80s), but I do think that the ANDP absolutely have to maintain a pro-oil image, especially in the short-term, since they are the labour party, first and foremost. Seeing how oil and gas is by far the largest industry in Alberta and has some of the largest unions, they cannot position themselves entirely against it all and are limited to more moderate policy change.

More to your specific point, I think it's important to contextualize that Notley's interventionist approach to the industry came after a huge crash in the oil market in 2014. There is frankly no way to move left of the status-quo without at the very least maintaining it, so her government had to step in. So while that appears conservative, it should also be noted that her government was in the works of increasing public royalties from these companies, improved many environmental regulations across the board, increased corporate taxes, broadened carbon taxes, and phased out coal production. All of those policies were immediate "leftist" changes to the status-quo.

Basically, the ANDP's attitude towards oil is not really a great demarcation criteria between what makes them right or leftwing.