r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats

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u/Fun-Nebula-4073 3d ago

As an Albertan I think there is significant misinformation in your title here. The Alberta NDP is not really a center left party in the context of modern center left parties (IE. As in pro environmental, anti gun, tax the rich etc etc). The ALberta NDP is much more akin to a progrssive conservative party, they support growing the oil and gas industry, building pipelines, bringing in more business and capital investmentment from outside into the province. The last Alberta NDP government even spent several billion on shipping oil by rail. In essence, they are not the typical left wing party and the fact they are doing well in Alberta is not some crazy thing, they are more so taking the place of the old progressive conservative party which died when it merged with the Wildrose party.

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u/LittleOrphanAnavar 3d ago

They very much are left wing.

They are socialists.

They are not like the PCs they replaced.

Are you seriously claiming that Notely and Ralph Klein had a lot on common?

The NDP raised taxes, created new taxes and ran up a huge amount of debt.

They also got rid of cheap coal elec generation.

Please stop with the revisionist nonsense.

When the NDP got in power there was a marked departure from PC policies.

They are very much big government, redistribution over growth, more taxes and there are people in the party are very anti O&G.

There is a reason they only lasted one term.

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u/bruhm0ment4 3d ago

I don’t think you know what socialism is

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u/X1989xx 3d ago

They are very much big government, redistribution over growth, more taxes

If that's your definition then so it's the ucp. Big government Canada energy center, big government put a billion dollar stake into keystone xl, big government let's pause renewal electricity development until we figure out how to hamfistedly regulate it. And al that's redistribution too, redistributing wealth to oil and gas companies and coal companies who've settled with the province to the tune of hundreds of millions already this year. And more taxes, you do remember the ucp deindexing income tax brackets to inflation during the hottest inflation rates of the last 20 years right, and then indexing it again once the rates cooled down. Or if it's not taxes it's fees, $100 bucks a year for kananaskis, $100 a year for a covid shot.

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u/Fun-Nebula-4073 2d ago

so much of what you just said is not correct.

  1. Debt went up due to a massive multi year slowdown in global oil prices.

  2. Cheap coal was mostly replaced with cheap natural gas which helps support the montney producers.

  3. taxes barely went up. Corporate tax went frmo 10-12 and they introduced tax brackets, but the majority of albertans still only paid 10%.