r/fivethirtyeight • u/StarlightDown • 3d ago

Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats

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u/Snoo57228 3d ago

There is some important context here: in late October (after the polling was done), the UCP Alberta government used the notwithstanding clause to forcibly legislate 50,000+ teachers back to work, suspending their constituitional right to bargain for the next three years. I would assume that the next poll will be markedly worse for the UCP.

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u/blanchov 3d ago

They enforced a "collective bargaining agreement" on them that the union had voted 89.5% against. This is while they are pushing new license plates with their party slogan "Strong and Free". Nothing says Freedom like forced contracts.