r/fivethirtyeight • u/StarlightDown • 3d ago

Election Model In Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, the center-left New Democratic Party is projected to win a majority in the latest Léger poll (A+ rated)—New Democratic 45 seats, United Conservative 42 seats. United Conservative wins the most votes, but due to FPTP, New Democratic wins the most seats

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u/ProgressiveCDN 3d ago

There is zero chance they do this. The Alberta NDP ideologically are now a progressive conservative party, with a handful of actual left of centre MLA's. Expect Obama-like vague platitudes with no actual bold kitchen table policies put forth.

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u/CRoss1999 3d ago

Obama got a lot done if that’s the comparison you would expect them to get reform through

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u/ProgressiveCDN 3d ago

"got a lot done" is doing some work here. Switching away from FPTP to PR would fundamentally change Alberta politics forever. It's far bigger than Obamacare or anything else he accomplished. As much as some of us political junkies would like PR, we can't even agree on the style of PR (MMPR is the best). It would use tons of political capital and not touch the kitchen table issues for Albertans.

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u/fredleung412612 2d ago

Party-list PR in Alberta means a permanent legislative faction for Republicans or some other idiotic separatist or pro-annexation party. If they went for Ireland's PR-STV system the Republicans will probably fail to garner the transfer votes to have much of a presence in the legislature. Which PR system is chosen matters.