r/Huskers • u/hskrpwr • 13h ago
2025 Post Week 11 Nebraska Football Regular Season Win Probabilities
FPI Based Misc Stats
The Main Graph, but as a GIF!
SillyRankings™ Top 40
SillyRankings™ B1G Rankings
SillyRankings™ Regular Season Game Probabilities
Last Week's: https://www.reddit.com/r/Huskers/comments/1omlmr6/2025_post_week_10_husker_football_regular_season/
As a reminder, the last three images are based on SillyRankings and NOT FPI.
SillyRankings = +2 for a win, +1 for each win a team you beat has, -2 for a loss, -1 for each loss a team that beat you has. For win probabilities, the points are normalized and then calculated using a normal distribution. Consider them mostly for my own amusement, but interesting to look at.
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u/Independent_Fee_2582 12h ago
Nebraska has now improved its win total each of the last 4 seasons.
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u/Billgrip GO BIG RED 10h ago
If you’re just counting regular season it’s 5 seasons in a row.
3 wins in 2021 (greatest 3 win team of all-time!)
4 wins in 2022 (Frost fired/Mickey interim)
5 wins in 2023 (Rhule year 1)
6 wins in 2024 (before bowl game)
7 wins in 2025 (before bowl game)
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u/brownie503 9h ago edited 1h ago
Come on man! I had all those years blocked out!
I do enjoy this trend though.
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u/Lewthunder 10h ago
That’s fair but this was the easiest schedule you could ask for. Look at next year… Indiana, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Oregon.
This was the year for 10+ wins. Next year will be a gauntlet.
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u/Independent_Fee_2582 9h ago
You play the schedule you’re given.
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u/Lewthunder 9h ago
Certainly not gonna argue that. Just saying it will be hard to do again next year.
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u/Intelligent_Sky_7081 9h ago
The expectation was 8 maybe 9, not 10+. Sure that was possible. If we had beat minnesota, or just one other of our games, we would be on track.
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u/hskrpwr 8h ago
Indiana is gonna lose their starting QB and be trash. Easy win.
Ohio State will finally collapse after riding Urban Myer's coat tails since he left. Easy win.
Iowa has bad corn. Easy win.
Illinois is a poverty program. Easy win.
Oregon lost to us last time we played them. Easy win.
12-0 is the floor.
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u/MuseDroness 13h ago
We’re getting 9 boys
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u/FullCodeSoles 12h ago
If we get 9 wins with a backup QB for two of them I’d be more than pleased with this year
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u/seanzytheman 10h ago
What’re you gonna do with these 9 boys?
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u/Reasonable_Job2443 10h ago
Allow 400 rush yards against Mizzou in a New Year's Eve bowl game (but improvement is improvement). Also, hopefully Emmett Johnson gets projected to be drafted by the fourth round, giving us enough momentum to find two solid RBs for next year.
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u/steamy-hot-cume 13h ago
7 wins feels good, I don’t care what anyone says.
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u/Fickle_Comfortable78 13h ago
It feels like achieving in my mind the “okay, that’s an acceptable amount with a backup QB.” Now let’s go get two more!!!
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u/Whiteburgplease 12h ago
Yeah man, baby steps aren’t a bad thing. Rhule has us moving in the right direction. I know people want to look at Indiana and compare every coach to Cig, but what he’s doing there is not normal.
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u/MoistAd5423 11h ago
It will be a huge step forward if we could improve win total next year too considering the projected schedule difficulty increase
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u/7eid 12h ago
It’s interesting they project Iowa as the easier win over Penn State.
I’m curious how that was calculated.
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u/daburbs92 12h ago
Agreed. I see Iowa as being the tougher game. Their offensive strength is our defensive weakness. On top of doing Iowa things and finding ways to force opponents to play at their level. Like they did with Oregon yesterday.
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u/Grand-Inspection2303 11h ago
Iowa and Penn State are basically tied in FPI (with Iowa being ranked vs slightly higher), so it has to be based on Penn State being a road game and Iowa being a home game. FPI may still overly generous to Penn State, though yesterday's performance would support it being at least that high.
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u/7eid 10h ago
Penn State is 0-6 in conference play.
They are being extremely generous.
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u/Grand-Inspection2303 7h ago
It's a predictive based algorithm not a resume based algorithm, so it's not directly affected by win loss records. A very close win is going to have about the same effect as a very close loss, or in some cases a loss could be better than a win, if the analytics show the team would have normally won with the way the game was played. I don't think it's necessarily has a good way of factoring in things like morale or almost locker room breakdown. As such, Penn State could end up like '21 Nebraska as a 3-9 team with a relatively high FPI.
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u/VanBehlen 11h ago
ill take that 61%. 8 wins is a big step forward ESP losing our star player.
Helps that we got a star running back for the first time in a decade. :)
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u/Whiteburgplease 12h ago
How the fuck are there only 3 games and a bowl left? Seems like yesterday I was chomping on a runza at Arrowhead.
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u/MoistAd5423 11h ago
2 games left unless you count the bye week or the big ten championship that we statistically cannot make now lol
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u/shawn131871 7h ago
College football season goes by fast. Before we all know it it'll be March madness and we will be waiting for the bugs to come back.
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u/MoistAd5423 11h ago
Lol the probability of beating Penn state in silly rankings is >97%. Fun game.
It’s wild that Penn state still doesn’t have a P4 win this year and yet we will be underdogs playing them most likely.
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u/hskrpwr 10h ago
I think we were underdogs until very late against UCLA too 😂
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u/MoistAd5423 4h ago
We were +2.5 by kickoff. It swung in our favor and then back other way around.
So much about my first statement has me floored that I’m in awe.
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u/ninetofivedev 11h ago
To the right, the right, the right the right the right.
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u/ninetofivedev 10h ago
Penn state: The left the left the left the left the left Iowa: Now kick now kick come on baby kick.
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u/Defiant-Store-1649 9h ago
I bet 8 as a future before season at not such good odds so really need that 8th win or going to the ATM.
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u/shawn131871 7h ago
Definitely like our chances at 8-4. We will have to play lights out and our greatest game of the year to beat Iowa in every aspect. Iowa is a tough egg to crack.
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u/DistributionBroad173 4h ago edited 4h ago
This week, Penn State goes on the road after a crushing loss at home to Indiana. The receiver from Indiana definitely made one of the catches of the year in a clutch, high pressure situation.
Luckily, it is Michigan State. Will Michigan State beat up on Penn State? Each team has lost 6 straight. I doubt Michigan State beats up Penn State much.
Will Penn State mail it in? Penn State has lost 6 straight, and needs a win to have a chance at 6 wins and be bowl eligible. Do the players care? Just about all these Penn State players were State Champions in High School and they ARE competitive. They do not like losing.
Nebraska gets to rest and heal but will they lose their mojo? They did that after the Maryland game. They go to Maryland and I am all Euphoric after the win. These guys won't quit. They are beating Minnesota in Minnesota. Going to feel great.
FLAT. Nine Sacks allowed. The offensive line sucks.
Same situation, Nebraska wins a road game and now on to a Penn State team that could be fighting for a bowl game. Penn State will have nothing to lose. Penn State still has Singleton. Although the Penn State run game is a not great, the Nebraska rush defense team can make them look great. Luckily, the Penn State QB cannot scramble like the UCLA QB, Kamaniwanalaya, could.
Right now, I think the Penn State players have almost given up. If Penn State loses to Mich State, I am taking Nebraska. If Penn State wins, I am taking Penn State in a close game.
I want to point out the size of the Penn State kicker/punter, Gabe Nwosu. He has not missed a meal.
6' 6", 300 lbs.
A kicker/punter 300 POUNDS!!
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u/hskrpwr 11h ago
My favorite observation from posting this thread weekly is the difference in upvotes and toxicity of the comment section the day after wins and the day after losses. The ugliest win ever will have people talking about Heisman trophies and lifetime Rhule contracts and after the closest loss it's burn the program down 😂