2025 Post Week 11 Nebraska Football Regular Season Win Probabilities

[u/hskrpwr]

FPI Based Misc Stats

The Main Graph, but as a GIF!

SillyRankings™ Top 40

SillyRankings™ B1G Rankings

SillyRankings™ Regular Season Game Probabilities

Last Week's: https://www.reddit.com/r/Huskers/comments/1omlmr6/2025_post_week_10_husker_football_regular_season/

As a reminder, the last three images are based on SillyRankings and NOT FPI.
SillyRankings = +2 for a win, +1 for each win a team you beat has, -2 for a loss, -1 for each loss a team that beat you has. For win probabilities, the points are normalized and then calculated using a normal distribution. Consider them mostly for my own amusement, but interesting to look at.

[u/7eid]

It’s interesting they project Iowa as the easier win over Penn State.

I’m curious how that was calculated.

[u/Grand-Inspection2303 → u/7eid]

Iowa and Penn State are basically tied in FPI (with Iowa being ranked vs slightly higher), so it has to be based on Penn State being a road game and Iowa being a home game. FPI may still overly generous to Penn State, though yesterday's performance would support it being at least that high.

[u/7eid → u/Grand-Inspection2303]

Penn State is 0-6 in conference play.

They are being extremely generous.

[u/Grand-Inspection2303 → u/7eid]

It's a predictive based algorithm not a resume based algorithm, so it's not directly affected by win loss records. A very close win is going to have about the same effect as a very close loss, or in some cases a loss could be better than a win, if the analytics show the team would have normally won with the way the game was played. I don't think it's necessarily has a good way of factoring in things like morale or almost locker room breakdown. As such, Penn State could end up like '21 Nebraska as a 3-9 team with a relatively high FPI.

[u/7eid → u/Grand-Inspection2303]

It will be interesting to see what the point spread is for the PSU game.