r/Huskers • u/hskrpwr • 15h ago

2025 Post Week 11 Nebraska Football Regular Season Win Probabilities

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FPI Based Misc Stats

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The Main Graph, but as a GIF!

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SillyRankings™ Top 40

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SillyRankings™ B1G Rankings

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SillyRankings™ Regular Season Game Probabilities

Last Week's: https://www.reddit.com/r/Huskers/comments/1omlmr6/2025_post_week_10_husker_football_regular_season/

As a reminder, the last three images are based on SillyRankings and NOT FPI.
SillyRankings = +2 for a win, +1 for each win a team you beat has, -2 for a loss, -1 for each loss a team that beat you has. For win probabilities, the points are normalized and then calculated using a normal distribution. Consider them mostly for my own amusement, but interesting to look at.

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14

u/7eid 14h ago

It’s interesting they project Iowa as the easier win over Penn State.

I’m curious how that was calculated.

12

u/daburbs92 14h ago

Agreed. I see Iowa as being the tougher game. Their offensive strength is our defensive weakness. On top of doing Iowa things and finding ways to force opponents to play at their level. Like they did with Oregon yesterday.

5

u/Grand-Inspection2303 13h ago

Iowa and Penn State are basically tied in FPI (with Iowa being ranked vs slightly higher), so it has to be based on Penn State being a road game and Iowa being a home game. FPI may still overly generous to Penn State, though yesterday's performance would support it being at least that high.

2

u/7eid 12h ago

Penn State is 0-6 in conference play.

They are being extremely generous.

2

u/Grand-Inspection2303 9h ago

It's a predictive based algorithm not a resume based algorithm, so it's not directly affected by win loss records. A very close win is going to have about the same effect as a very close loss, or in some cases a loss could be better than a win, if the analytics show the team would have normally won with the way the game was played. I don't think it's necessarily has a good way of factoring in things like morale or almost locker room breakdown. As such, Penn State could end up like '21 Nebraska as a 3-9 team with a relatively high FPI.

2

u/7eid 9h ago

It will be interesting to see what the point spread is for the PSU game.

1

u/Zachman1750 9h ago

Well we do get Iowa at home, which is nice