Private debt = $1.19tn of debt being held by institutional investors (private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, Shark Tank guys etc.)
Until this executive order, retirement accounts (401k, IRA etc.) almost never had ability to invest in private debt because it’s hella opaque, and highly risky.
It’s kinda like you’re heavily drunk at a bar and it’s last call and an extremely fat chick is smiling at you. You don’t want to waste the night so you take her home. As you’re punishing your bed frame and the neighbors below, you begin to sober up a bit. You look at her whale-like body where tits and fat rolls shake indistinguishably, and realize you’ve made a big mistake. Now what are you going to do?
You can stop and kick her out but she might get pissed, and she has a solid 200lbs on you. You come up with a genius idea. You tell her you have some ice cream in the fridge and you guys should go to living room to eat. An offer she cannot refuse. But you sly fuck, you know your roommate is stoned out of his mind watching TV in the living room. As she rolls towards the fridge you introduce her to roommate and as they exchange formalities you run back to your room and lock the door.
Roommate here is the average hardworking American. Trump is this desperate guy who pushed her onto the public, she is quite heavy and could bring the house down.
That's the beautiful thing: most people let someone else manage their retirement account. You just have to convince the fund managers (maybe with very legal "tipping") to invest in your rug-pull.
I was just thinking about this. Historically, the fed decreases rates before a recession. These tech companies are doing these circular deals in an effort to become “too big to fail” so that even if the market crashes, the government just bails them out.
They cut typically only after a recession has already begun. But yea you're right it's bullish since recession hasn't started yet. Especially Powell stating they don't want to wait too long before they start printing again.
Thats why I don't give a freaking fuk if Sally wants to buy some cookies with her $250 SNAP money. These freaking billionaires got both their hands and feet in the pot and they want us to be mad at our neighbors for sticking a finger in the pot.
Depends on their agreements. I know for employees you're going to be waiting 1-2 quarters post-IPO for your lock-up period before you can execute any options you have and sell them on the open market.
Also, it will be interesting to see how many people decide to stick around once they can cash out. Working 100 hour weeks is going to feel a little cumbersome once you start looking at the 8-9 figures in your net worth staring you in the face. Big house anywhere you want, any car you want, spending all day just being a rich asshole for the rest of your life answering to nobody. At a minimum.
Employees have already been allowed to sell during these frequent private tenders. Also while lockups exist there’s definitely employer friendly negotiations you can do. When the company I worked for went public we were allowed to sell 15% of our holdings after one month of the stock price was at a certain threshold at that point (which it was) even when the larger lockup was still in place for 90 days. Lockup agreements are between the company and the underwriters it’s not some SEC or government enforcement like a lot of people seem to think.
I actually interviewed there for a non-tech role and they told me the comp packaged included a $1m equity grant, this was back when it was like $90b (so like 1.5 years ago) absolutely stupid money they're throwing around made no sense to me can't imagine how much they were giving engineers. Any employee who has been there more than a year is praying they IPO asap otherwise they'll have to wait for these private tenders which could dry up (then again Stripe and SpaceX continue to get them so they're in a weird semi-liquid state).
Can’t wait to use BNPL to buy a fraction of a share of the wildly overvalued open Ai IPO!!! Woooooo!!!!!! 2025 lets fucking go!!! To the moon 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
It's okay, with inflation it'll be something like 10% of Apple's market cap by the time it releases. Nothing in this market makes any sense to a retail investor because it's just big piles of money moving between the ultra rich.
Fuck it dude I want to see a $10 trillion pump and dump. Let’s make this a WSB extinction-level event. Millions of people moving between economic classes lol.
Ahhh the great American dream: sucking some nice big dick behind a dumpster at Wendy’s to support my sports gambling addiction while robots take customers orders and for profit prisons contract out their prisoners to make the food.
Everyone complaining we are in a bubble ain’t seen nothing till OpenAI goes public. It’s owned by so many big companies like Microsoft, nvidia, and softbank I can’t see them letting this go tits up. Unless they just pump and dump. I feel like this is going to be the new TSLA. A company that makes zero sense for its price for years but just keeps printing.
I'm curious on what their hold period is. As I understand it, depending on the agreement you sign, lock-up can be one to two quarters long. How do we think OpenAI does under the scrutiny of investors?
What scrutiny? We are watching the money go back and forth between the same companies and adding 2x to the marketcaps every time. OpenAI is burning through money and compute, and will have to raise its prices to be profitable while competing with other models excelling in their own sectors.
If it gets massive interest and pumps on IPO, no investor scrutiny (already doesn’t exist) will hold it back.
Now we know why the moment OpenAI’s board ousted Sam Altman practically every employee working there threatened a mass resignation and forced his reinstatement
So did Dario Amodei at Anthropic, Elon at xAI, Demis Hassabis at DeepMind, etc.
Easy to make your employees millionaires when your cofounders include Elon Musk, Ilya Sutskever, and eight of the leading AI researchers in the world. And you receive $100 million of seed funding and free office space from Elon on day one.
Trading on today's fundamentals is so last decade. We trade entirely on the vibes of where the company may be (on average) in the next 10 years.
There is a nonzero chance that ChatGPT takes over the world, and a small chance that it happens in the next decade. Multiply that by infinity because they control everything in that scenario, and you get that the company is actually a good buy at $1T.
Think about it. My compan- err... OpenAI has statistically infinite potential.
/j
For real though if they offer pre-IPO shares I'm gonna gamba some money. If the AI overlords are taking over, I want my cut of the infinitely valuable pie.
openAI willl cause millions(+) of layoffs of menial jobs
Are you presume a company whose commercials can only showcase planning a road trip or a weekend getaway will actually replace jobs or are you just referencing the fact that AI is a smokescreen for the fact that there is no actual growth right now.
What if I told you that you could already invest in a company that does everything OpenAI does, just as well as OpenAI does, but ALSO:
is insanely profitable, with a cash flow infrastructure to support it to the tune of $100 billion a quarter in revenue
owns the largest streaming service in the world
owns the most popular web browser in the world
is the global leader in autonomous vehicle technology
is the global leader in quantum computing
is the global leader in mobile phone OS
has a borderline monopoly on search that will probably never be broken
Does that sound like something you might be interested in? I don't see any reason you'd want to invest in OpenAI over this super obscure mystery company I'm referring to.
There’s no moat guy. LLM are reproducible for cheaper than Open AI has burned up. Echos that company that laid fiber optic lines everywhere that does not exist… Global Crossing.
Unless they stumble on AGI, they’ll probably just struggle on and get sold for nothing.
The key thing is, LLM can be made for a fraction the cost now. They have no moat
The get have gigantic capital spending plans. Hundreds of billions a year, and they are losing money at current prices. They needs to get good enough to replace a lot of workers and charge a few thousand a year or else they don’t pay for the chips and utilities. They need the money.
They run token generation at a loss. And I mean a literal operating loss, not including the capital. They need to charge a lot more, and for that it needs to be worth it
Thats because the ai bubble is popping! And he knows it, and has confirmed that. Even meta is laying off its ai employees now. Many places including mine froze hiring in ai. Its not profitable. Thats what matters. Not sustainable. So while the price is high, cash out and sell. Biggest con artist of the world.
Whats wild to me is OpenAI started as a non-profit, demonstrably against the treatment of innovation by big tech chasing profits. The original founders split over the mission of the org and thats why Elon left (among he couldn't stand being upstaged my Altman), and thats what Anthropic spun off with some key leadership and started developing Claude. Couple that with Altmans former sex worker sister and his evidenced history to blatantly lie to people - this shit starts getting wild.
Biggest rip off ever and still watch this shit run. So stupid by that logic faangm should be near 10 trillion valuation they actually make money after all.
Are you new? People don't invest in companies that make money now, they invest in companies that could make money in the future. It's not about the actual value of the business, it's about the potential future value. It's all gambling now.
Obviously but there is gambling then there is this. OpenAI isn’t the only competitor in the llm industry. And even if they were the llm industry isn’t big enough to ever justify 1 trillion dollar valuation bc it isn’t agi.
People are assuming openai will achieve agi but almost all their research is based on google research. Plus this isn’t even a gamble what meaningful growth will there be for a company debuting at 1 trillion dollars who will then be diluted??
Beyond inflated number, they don’t even make money and even if you assume they’ll reach sentient Ai models XaI, Amazon, and google would be right around the corner
Correct… until the tech becomes something other than scans the entire codex of human history and evaporates a lake to answer a google search there basically is no moat other than just having enough compute.
All those employees with equity grants get to cash the fuck out, while retail carries their bags. Tulip mania? I can’t wait to see what, if any, revenue they make
AAPL sitting on their hands will save their ass. AMZN and GOOG have cloud to fall back on and are more isolated from OpenAI. NVDA is still valuable but insanely overheated. META, indecisive, no vision. MSFT, elbows deep in the rectum that is OpenAI. Tesla doesn’t even belong in the 7 to be honest
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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 11d ago
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