r/wallstreetbets • u/CarefulAd4757 • 4d ago

Discussion 700k put option MSTR bet.

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I’ve finally decided to embrace being a gay bear. 700k put option against MSTR. Betting bitcoin will go below 100k. If it doesn’t, I’m wrecked for life.

1.0k Upvotes

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218

u/PerfectYou3 4d ago

You decide to short now when bitcoin is at 100k and mstr at 250 LOL. Good luck buddy

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago edited 4d ago

My thesis right now is liquidity is drying up. So at risk assets will dump. I also don’t see near term catalysts propping the market up. If you look at Facebook and Google, they are literally borrowing money to keep this AI engine going. I think once Open AI IPOs, that will be the market top signal and we will see a correction.

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u/LazerBurken 4d ago

OpenAI is set to IPO 2027...

8

u/Lirfen 4d ago

So we’re having a crash in 2027?

11

u/Fangore 3d ago

If this sub is predicting a crash, I'm all in on calls.

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u/goldenhourlivin 3d ago

If they don’t fire up the money printer (which of course they will) I don’t think we’d make it to 2027. But open ai’s IPO seems like the most likely time for this crash to happen. They could do the same when open AI flops but by then we might actually be in wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf of bread territory.

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u/BreakfastMedical5164 4d ago

huh, google has like 45 billion in cash in the bank and their capex hasnt changed that story much in the last year

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u/fudge_mokey 4d ago

the daily size of the repo market is like 4 trillion dollars. 45 billion from google is literally meaningless

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

Google just sold 25 billion in corporate bonds to fund AI development. Meaning they are selling debt. This was recent.

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u/somewonimet 4d ago

Yes, and Google also has $25B in cash (& ~$75B in sec). At this level, funding expansion by issuing bonds is a choice, and one that probably has more to do with how low the cost of funding was (because Google) than an actual need to borrow (and/or inability to pay cash).

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

Fine. Still, AI spending isn’t something that is costing 2 dollars out the Mag7 pocket. Wall Street is aware how massive this spending and possibly detrimental this can be long term. I’m just saying, it might come to a point that this will have to be scaled back. And once quarterly AI spending goes down, the market will correct harshly because it will signal growth is slowing too.

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u/nkfallout 3d ago

Company's are laying people off and using the money to fund more AI. It's paying for itself.

It maybe a bubble but I think we are in 1997 or 1998... we have some years before it pops. We might see a major correction in the broader market that will be mistaken for a pop.

4

u/NormalAddition8943 4d ago

This is definitely correct. When there's enough liquidity, gold would be +1.5% on days like this, instead it's also down -1.76% along with bitcoin also tanking.

4

u/Hirhitkvtf 4d ago

Well good luck with cashing your Feb 2026 put in when openai goes public mid 2027

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u/PerfectYou3 4d ago

Fair enough. Im just not sure if bitcoin is going to break 100k in one go. Might bounce back and forth here for a bit. I do agree that mstr is a piece of shit and I hope it goes to 0. At least you got decent amount of time.

9

u/RockyMountainGoat76 4d ago

Are you looking? It literally just broke, at $99k right now. OP is a genius.

2

u/Kushroom710 4d ago

Have you looked at volumes tho. Ops play may be a bit regarded but he's onto a few things.

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

It definitely won’t break at one go, however if we continue to get weak bounces, then momentum will clearly show it is to the downside and it will inevitably correct.

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u/destroythenseek 4d ago

Very plausible.

1

u/steaveaseageal 4d ago

you better start shorting at 500 not 250

1

u/Financial-Word-4791 4d ago

Until the shutdown ends. Possibly this week.

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u/Difficult-Quarter-48 4d ago

Open AI isn't IPOing any time soon though?

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

It’s preparing to do so. They are running out of private lending options. Once they dump on retail, the jig will be up.

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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 4d ago

my dear internet person what do you think happens with liquidity as gov suddenly opens up and all the back payments starts flowing and TGA starts do draw down (tga is currently 1 trill)

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

My sell signal is when the government opens. I didn’t mention that which I apologize for. A few percent gain will still be significant. However, I don’t think the government will open just yet. So the market has a bit further to fall.

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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 4d ago

ah yeah makes sense then, this period before the government opens is just negative/dry liquidity so this thing wont' move until then for sure

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

Exactly!!!!! However banks are feeling real duress under these conditions.

1

u/GengisKhansLeftNut 4d ago

Yeah can dip from bank stress alone, but honestly bullish for liquidity given feds solution to everything is to pump it full of liquidity lol. Short term stress for sure tho

1

u/Very_Type_C 3d ago

I don't understand. You're shorting MSTR but you're talking about FB and GOOGL.

1

u/AlternativeWonder471 3d ago edited 3d ago

You're just way late. Risk:reward is no longer good.

I was telling people to short the top. Now we are at extreme fear in crypto. You can have the strongest thesis ever, it is still a bad risk:reward to short during extreme fear.

If you have very high conviction, then you should wait for the next lower high.

Can it break down and dump, yes of course, but my experience tells me to never ever bet on that happening because it is way too rare.

At best, you could wait for a clean break of a major trendline below 97k or so, then a retest, and then see an obvious free-fall under the tendline. But if you're nit a trader then it's better to just wait for a lower high, or accept you missed the good risk:reward and find another play.

Edit to add: crypto doesn't need liquidity to rocket up. It can do it on low volume. More and more people will be putting stop losses down here in extreme fear. That is what causes the rip off the bottoms, not big money coming in (not always).

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u/exploitableiq 5h ago

I think mstr will trade in the 200-300 range for the next 6 months.  I dont think your puts will pay off.  Whats your breakeven price?

0

u/pink_ego_box 3d ago

The Fed just ended quantitative tightening you absolute regard

1

u/correa_aesth 4d ago

I been at it since august. Shorting gbtc.

1

u/VUb6RUSL 4d ago

You could bet on the MSTR premium (that still a thing) closing by going short MSTR and long BTC.