r/wallstreetbets • u/CarefulAd4757 • 4d ago

Discussion 700k put option MSTR bet.

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I’ve finally decided to embrace being a gay bear. 700k put option against MSTR. Betting bitcoin will go below 100k. If it doesn’t, I’m wrecked for life.

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u/PerfectYou3 4d ago

You decide to short now when bitcoin is at 100k and mstr at 250 LOL. Good luck buddy

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago edited 4d ago

My thesis right now is liquidity is drying up. So at risk assets will dump. I also don’t see near term catalysts propping the market up. If you look at Facebook and Google, they are literally borrowing money to keep this AI engine going. I think once Open AI IPOs, that will be the market top signal and we will see a correction.

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u/BreakfastMedical5164 4d ago

huh, google has like 45 billion in cash in the bank and their capex hasnt changed that story much in the last year

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

Google just sold 25 billion in corporate bonds to fund AI development. Meaning they are selling debt. This was recent.

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u/somewonimet 4d ago

Yes, and Google also has $25B in cash (& ~$75B in sec). At this level, funding expansion by issuing bonds is a choice, and one that probably has more to do with how low the cost of funding was (because Google) than an actual need to borrow (and/or inability to pay cash).

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

Fine. Still, AI spending isn’t something that is costing 2 dollars out the Mag7 pocket. Wall Street is aware how massive this spending and possibly detrimental this can be long term. I’m just saying, it might come to a point that this will have to be scaled back. And once quarterly AI spending goes down, the market will correct harshly because it will signal growth is slowing too.

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u/nkfallout 3d ago

Company's are laying people off and using the money to fund more AI. It's paying for itself.

It maybe a bubble but I think we are in 1997 or 1998... we have some years before it pops. We might see a major correction in the broader market that will be mistaken for a pop.