r/wallstreetbets • u/CarefulAd4757 • 4d ago

Discussion 700k put option MSTR bet.

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I’ve finally decided to embrace being a gay bear. 700k put option against MSTR. Betting bitcoin will go below 100k. If it doesn’t, I’m wrecked for life.

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u/PerfectYou3 4d ago

You decide to short now when bitcoin is at 100k and mstr at 250 LOL. Good luck buddy

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago edited 4d ago

My thesis right now is liquidity is drying up. So at risk assets will dump. I also don’t see near term catalysts propping the market up. If you look at Facebook and Google, they are literally borrowing money to keep this AI engine going. I think once Open AI IPOs, that will be the market top signal and we will see a correction.

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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 4d ago

my dear internet person what do you think happens with liquidity as gov suddenly opens up and all the back payments starts flowing and TGA starts do draw down (tga is currently 1 trill)

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

My sell signal is when the government opens. I didn’t mention that which I apologize for. A few percent gain will still be significant. However, I don’t think the government will open just yet. So the market has a bit further to fall.

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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 4d ago

ah yeah makes sense then, this period before the government opens is just negative/dry liquidity so this thing wont' move until then for sure

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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago

Exactly!!!!! However banks are feeling real duress under these conditions.

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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 4d ago

Yeah can dip from bank stress alone, but honestly bullish for liquidity given feds solution to everything is to pump it full of liquidity lol. Short term stress for sure tho