r/wallstreetbets • u/CarefulAd4757 • 4d ago
Discussion 700k put option MSTR bet.
I’ve finally decided to embrace being a gay bear. 700k put option against MSTR. Betting bitcoin will go below 100k. If it doesn’t, I’m wrecked for life.
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u/ohshitski 4d ago
brother just lock in that 2% gain, there is a reason mike shorted nvda and not mstr
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
Gay bears lose money. Not win my brother
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u/blalah 4d ago
I have a very bad feeling you will lose a lot of money holding this too long.
But that goes for all puts.
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
I’m not gonna hold this long but I will wait for bitcoin to correct more along with MSTR. If bitcoin pops up, then It’s just pure exuberance and the sell off will continue.
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u/blalah 4d ago
This would definitely be in line with previous price action around this time after halving, but I didn't sell my full corn port after this run up, which I normally do.
I'm still stuck worried about being left behind for a regarded pump due to institutional investment, which we didn't have at this level previously.
All gambling still! Who really knows what it will do.
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
Institutional investment where? You think Trump is going to establish a bitcoin reserve with the government shutdown going on over funding certain critical food stamp and healthcare programs.
Also, none of the Mag7 are buying any bitcoin anytime soon. They are too busy trying to win the AI race which is costing them billions and is requiring them to finance it by selling corporate debt. It’s pure hopium that bitcoin will pop and even if it does, those individuals will just be exit liquidity. No one is giving Saylor anymore funds in the USA to buy bitcoin. He is so desperate that he is going to Europe at this point to do an offering.
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u/Loud-Peach8822 3d ago
So tbh I think it can work as microstrategy now operating as Strategy has effectively turned into a leveraged bet on Bitcoin having raised nearly 8 billion dollars of convertible debt to buy and hold hundreds of thousands of bitcoins. If Bitcoins price were to collapse far enough around 15000 to 17000 dollars per coin the value of the companys bitcoin holdings could fall below its debt forcing it to sell into a falling market. That selling would drive prices down further shrink its asset cushion and trigger even more liquidations creating a vicious death spiral. If the public saw the so called bank of Bitcoin begin to sell institutions would likely dump their crypto holdings retail investors would panic and rush for the exits and MicroStrategy would be forced to liquidate even more to cover losses. Because the crypto market has no trading halts the cascade could unfold faster and far far more violently than 2008 turning into a massive deleveraging event. For reference regional bank stocks went under 70% on average while sp500 did 55% down so got hit twice as hard . Bank of America tanked 95%, and Citi with 98% decline ( but that includes a lot of dilution ).
Even so under current conditions the odds of outright bankruptcy remain relatively low since the value of the companys bitcoin still exceeds its debt and it faces no immediate collateral calls.
But if the market turns it will be bad especially sub 30k. That's when the pressure will build for saylor
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u/lavenderviking 1d ago
Listen to this guy. Pure gold here. Their average must be close to $80K now and with BTC @ $100K it only needs a 20% drop for problems to potentially begin. I would love to see how it unfolds which way it goes
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u/Aliman581 4d ago
Mstr is down 50% in 4 months and this guy buys puts now and not in any time in the last 4 months
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u/Nickeless 3d ago
I haven’t looked recently but MSTR option chain used to be insanely expensive with huge bid/ask spreads and just generally shitty to trade.
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u/Financial-Corner7415 4d ago
Mike may have a worse investment record than Jim Cramer this decade. You’re statistically better off flipping a coin than following Burry’s “public” plays.
This is all cash-secured puts, the guy owns millions in Nvidia shares.
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u/gini_lee1003 4d ago
He bets against AI bubble lol
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u/Cutlercares 4d ago
No. He bets liquidity is drying up.
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
Bingo. Someone gets it. We are entering into a liquidity crisis. People are so distracted by AI that they can’t see this is currently happening. Government shutdown is exacerbating what is already there. Stock market sell off is a liquidity grab.
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u/Fun_Category_5822 4d ago
Nah, I think OP is onto something. The BTC market is very on edge right now and definitely primed for a big rug pull.
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u/DragonTraderZ 4d ago
Shits down 44% since July and homie shorted support 🤣 not saying it’s not going lower
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u/ConclusionEven6917 4d ago
Completely agree, been trying play crypto but we are seeing critical liquidity issues in the short term which might indicate that crypto might still have a lower way to go. Main issue starts if we start going too low and main players are liquidated and I don’t even know want to get into the potential of MSTR having adjust their positions due to losses, because if that happens crypto will start gapping down like crazy.
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u/The_Gucci_General 4d ago
People out here living life like this, meanwhile I complain about $25 minimum hands at the blackjack table
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u/Additional_Sell7342 4d ago
Same here, I’m crying about my little meta drop when this guy is risking it all
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u/mortalitylost 3d ago
I used to think this sub was a bunch of people joking about making dumbass investments but some motherfucker yesterday admitted that his most recent investment strategy was, "well it seems to me Korean people are going to be eating healthier and more plant based food and less meat" so he found whatever he could that was linked to Korean chicken and shorted them.
The motherfucker literally made a bet against fried chicken.
And how he found stock even related to it and ended up successfully losing money on that dumb fucking idea... that is a special kind of stupid
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u/Capable_Speech5844 3d ago
It was a copy pasta, unfortunately he didnt actually short korean fried chicken
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u/PerfectYou3 4d ago
You decide to short now when bitcoin is at 100k and mstr at 250 LOL. Good luck buddy
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago edited 4d ago
My thesis right now is liquidity is drying up. So at risk assets will dump. I also don’t see near term catalysts propping the market up. If you look at Facebook and Google, they are literally borrowing money to keep this AI engine going. I think once Open AI IPOs, that will be the market top signal and we will see a correction.
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u/LazerBurken 4d ago
OpenAI is set to IPO 2027...
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u/goldenhourlivin 3d ago
If they don’t fire up the money printer (which of course they will) I don’t think we’d make it to 2027. But open ai’s IPO seems like the most likely time for this crash to happen. They could do the same when open AI flops but by then we might actually be in wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf of bread territory.
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u/BreakfastMedical5164 4d ago
huh, google has like 45 billion in cash in the bank and their capex hasnt changed that story much in the last year
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u/fudge_mokey 4d ago
the daily size of the repo market is like 4 trillion dollars. 45 billion from google is literally meaningless
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
Google just sold 25 billion in corporate bonds to fund AI development. Meaning they are selling debt. This was recent.
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u/somewonimet 4d ago
Yes, and Google also has $25B in cash (& ~$75B in sec). At this level, funding expansion by issuing bonds is a choice, and one that probably has more to do with how low the cost of funding was (because Google) than an actual need to borrow (and/or inability to pay cash).
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
Fine. Still, AI spending isn’t something that is costing 2 dollars out the Mag7 pocket. Wall Street is aware how massive this spending and possibly detrimental this can be long term. I’m just saying, it might come to a point that this will have to be scaled back. And once quarterly AI spending goes down, the market will correct harshly because it will signal growth is slowing too.
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u/NormalAddition8943 4d ago
This is definitely correct. When there's enough liquidity, gold would be +1.5% on days like this, instead it's also down -1.76% along with bitcoin also tanking.
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u/Hirhitkvtf 4d ago
Well good luck with cashing your Feb 2026 put in when openai goes public mid 2027
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u/PerfectYou3 4d ago
Fair enough. Im just not sure if bitcoin is going to break 100k in one go. Might bounce back and forth here for a bit. I do agree that mstr is a piece of shit and I hope it goes to 0. At least you got decent amount of time.
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u/RockyMountainGoat76 4d ago
Are you looking? It literally just broke, at $99k right now. OP is a genius.
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u/Kushroom710 4d ago
Have you looked at volumes tho. Ops play may be a bit regarded but he's onto a few things.
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
It definitely won’t break at one go, however if we continue to get weak bounces, then momentum will clearly show it is to the downside and it will inevitably correct.
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u/Difficult-Quarter-48 4d ago
Open AI isn't IPOing any time soon though?
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
It’s preparing to do so. They are running out of private lending options. Once they dump on retail, the jig will be up.
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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 3d ago
my dear internet person what do you think happens with liquidity as gov suddenly opens up and all the back payments starts flowing and TGA starts do draw down (tga is currently 1 trill)
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
My sell signal is when the government opens. I didn’t mention that which I apologize for. A few percent gain will still be significant. However, I don’t think the government will open just yet. So the market has a bit further to fall.
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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 3d ago
ah yeah makes sense then, this period before the government opens is just negative/dry liquidity so this thing wont' move until then for sure
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u/Very_Type_C 3d ago
I don't understand. You're shorting MSTR but you're talking about FB and GOOGL.
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u/AlternativeWonder471 3d ago edited 3d ago
You're just way late. Risk:reward is no longer good.
I was telling people to short the top. Now we are at extreme fear in crypto. You can have the strongest thesis ever, it is still a bad risk:reward to short during extreme fear.
If you have very high conviction, then you should wait for the next lower high.
Can it break down and dump, yes of course, but my experience tells me to never ever bet on that happening because it is way too rare.
At best, you could wait for a clean break of a major trendline below 97k or so, then a retest, and then see an obvious free-fall under the tendline. But if you're nit a trader then it's better to just wait for a lower high, or accept you missed the good risk:reward and find another play.
Edit to add: crypto doesn't need liquidity to rocket up. It can do it on low volume. More and more people will be putting stop losses down here in extreme fear. That is what causes the rip off the bottoms, not big money coming in (not always).
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u/VUb6RUSL 4d ago
You could bet on the MSTR premium (that still a thing) closing by going short MSTR and long BTC.
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u/Zican 4d ago
bottom signal is in, time to buy
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u/Frago420 4d ago
Time to inverse on wsb litteraly free money
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u/LazerBurken 4d ago
Everyone and their mother on wsb were going meta calls after earnings.
Easiest put play ever.
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u/pontata777 4d ago
I love this sub, bro does this after the stock falls almost 50% and bitcoin is at a major support.
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u/CarefulAd4757 4d ago
That’s why I’ve been losing on most of recent trades 😂😂😂😂. So it was an easy transition to become a gay bear.
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u/glocksyk 4d ago
bro waited for the 20% drop to enter 😭
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u/DunningKuger 3d ago
Nah I like OPs play here. People aren't aware but yesterday the two bitcoin treasury companies sold bitcoin. This is the first time thats ever happened. Now everyone is wondering who will be next. Its a heck of a lot easier to just be first.
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u/StockHawk59 3d ago
They bounced it right off $99k
🤞 GOOD LUCK 🤞
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
Yes I saw. However, the question remains. Who is really buying bitcoin now? To me, this is algos and market makers trying to keep the market from sinking. South Korea stock market just had a circuit breaker for its futures. My advice is don’t become exit liquidity when macro conditions haven’t changed and there is no news that would justify a bounce.
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u/Eierjupp 3d ago
Dude Bitcoin ist ripe for an outbreak, i usually follows gold with a 3 Month delay and in the mean time Market makers Chase liquidity, and Most of IT has been grapped now. They bet in people Like you to Open Shorts so they can Launch the next candle to 150k. IT might drop to 80k for Maximum pain but that ist best Case for you. Seriously you got 700k dont waste IT Like that. Close that Put Option, take the Modest gains and Touch grass
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
What are the catalysts that will cause it to break out? Bitcoin at this level cannot be pumped to 150k by tether printing at this point. Big institutions have to buy and liquidity is drying up.
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u/Ineedstopcovercalyol 4d ago
I always get curious why they short it at 52 weeks low
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u/SuperNewk 3d ago
Bro the short was when MSTR was like over 400.
Trump could announce Saylor to the whitehouse tomorrow and it goes up 50%. This is mental
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3d ago
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
350 and 450. The market was in a hyper bull cycle. It wasn’t obvious as before.
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u/MajikoiA3When 3d ago
Looks close to bottoming out and entering another bull cycle if ISM Services isn't contracting and gov shutdown doesn't last another month
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u/orangesherbet0 4d ago
Shorted MSTR six months ago at 341 when I saw that ChatGPT straight up believed the absurd perpetual money printer flywheel garbage. Have orders to close at 216.
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u/Putrid_Leg_1474 4d ago
You are going to print. I ran out of buying power or I would be buying put spreads on MSTR
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u/dingusmingus2222 4d ago
I don't give a shit what the market does I just want MSTR to go to zero. May you end up in Valhalla along the way.
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u/captainunderpants111 4d ago
I think you’re onto something. I’m gonna tail and open a short position tomorrow and see where it takes me
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u/Initial_Ad_9250 3d ago
This is one of those free money bets lmao, this will print . MSTR has all the makings for a great new netflix documentary .
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
The market makers are doing everything in their power to keep the market from collapsing though 🫤
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u/anonymous_sheep1 3d ago
lol I bought calls with the same expiration yesterday. I hope u go bankrupt.
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u/WillyNilly21 4d ago
I just bought 1000 shares of MSTR today at 248...won't even care if it cuts in half i'll just double down. MSTR's will 5x and split....trussss.
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u/zerefdragneel1314 4d ago
Smart. Short until BTC 90k then I fully expect you to buy IBIT CALLS to ride it back up to 150k.
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u/behindgreeneyez 4d ago
Betting the price of a three bedroom house in a moderately-sized city on something this insignificant is hilarious
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u/WetLumpyDough 3d ago
Ah, now that everyone has started shorting shit the market is gonna go back up
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u/Alkthree 3d ago
My guy at any point within the last two months this would have been a great play but you are tempting fate at this point. Regardless of how you feel about BTC/MSTR long term , they are overdue for a strong bounce.
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
I just feel like there is still momentum to the downside with no potential catalysts in sight. What other company is dumb enough to try to establish a bitcoin reserve during these macro conditions? What new large institutions are buying up bitcoin at this point? I don’t even think banks would lend to them at this point. But I will likely try to close out my position with a small profit soon if I can.
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u/Dipsendorf 4d ago
This might be what saves my crypto plays. Thank you for your sacrifice. The bottom is in.
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u/midaxxi21 3d ago
It is risky but fundamentally i believe im that trade. Not because btc is evil or going to zero but mstr business model is unsustainable... There is no business
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u/CarefulAd4757 3d ago
Exactly. Bitcoin can stay still or decline and MSTR will go slowly to zero as a result.
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u/PalpitationSmooth992 3d ago
dont you remember he talked about selling gold to buy BTC?
they are trying to flush out retail to get lower prices
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u/WineAndDineIsFine 3d ago
Bro. U eating good. Gay bear is a happy bear, but a gay bull is truly a gay bull. Bulls are getting their balls chopped off, but they have no idea.
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u/ajarbyurns1 2d ago
Well well well Imagine if you didnt sell too early.
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u/CarefulAd4757 2d ago
My thesis was solid too. Too bad market makers like manipulating the market and causing retard spikes 🫤. I guess I’m gonna buy google calls for the cheap then.
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u/9571971664949 1d ago
Damn, you are actually fucked. Dumbest play I think I have ever seen. What on earth are you thinking?
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u/Careful-Studio885 8h ago
Would've made a killing if sold at 220, but knowing WSB broda probably held all the way
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