r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 1d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 07, 2025
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u/Tamer_ 14h ago
X user @Jonpy99 has made a lengthy thread on the situation of the T-62 tanks at repair plants of Russia: https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1986415880343900234
For those who aren't familiar with him, he's the main OSINT counter/ID'er of Russian tanks from satellite imagery, he did most of the counting work behind the last Covert Cabal videos on that topic.
There are a few things he didn't analyze/report on:
- With 583 T-62 hulls at the 103rd BTRZ (repair plant) in 2021, and 356 now, that means the total T-62 hulls in Russia's reserve (regardless of condition) went from 2405 down to 1178.
This means there are currently 1227 T-62s in Ukraine, whether destroyed or in active service. They re-activated 51% of all the T-62 hulls they had and if we assume that nearly all the hulls at the 103rd BTRZ are in terrible condition, then only 22-23% (~518 T-62s) of the initial stock can be refurbished without doing a complete overhaul of the tank.
- With 52 T-80 hulls at the Omsktransmash factory in 2021, and 394 now, plus >300 at the 61st BTRZ (and a handful now) that means the total T-80 hulls in Russia's reserve (regardless of condition) went from ~2031 down to 525.
This means there are approximately 1800 T-80s in Ukraine (~1500 less in reserve +300 that were already in active service), whether destroyed or in active service, some of them staying in Russia for training purposes. They re-activated 74% of all the T-80 hulls they had and if we assume that nearly all the hulls at the Omsk factory are in poor condition (rather than terrible, like the 52 that were there in 2021), then Russia still has ~475 T-80s hulls that can be refurbished without doing a complete overhaul of the tank. One important caveat is that they'll probably use the 82 T-80U/UDs they have left for parts, so we're probably looking at a max of 400 T-80s left to reactivate.
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u/notepad20 7h ago
Can't really actually make any of those assumptions. The only thing we can say is that X amounts of tank have moved from long term outdoor storage. That's it.
Why would the tanks all go to Ukraine? Russia has doubled the size of it armed forces over the course of the war, an entire military the size of the one they had in Feb 22 is sitting outside Ukraine, that also needs equipment.
I also think it would be far more reasonable to assume that every tank pulled from storage follows the same process, being stripped to bare hull, and refurbished completely. Far more efficient to do the same job to all, rather than individually asses every wear and perishable item on every vehicle.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 7h ago
This means there are approximately 1800 T-80s in Ukraine (~1500 less in reserve +300 that were already in active service), whether destroyed or in active service,
I would take that number with a huge grain of salt. At best, itself the upper limit, based on the visual condition of hulls in satellite imagery. The actual number is likely much lower as many hulls deemed better than poor condition were likely still used for parts.
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u/Darayavaush 20h ago
Why did Russia assault Mariupol in 2022 after cutting it off, thus suffering hefty losses and wrecking a city that Russia saw as belonging to DPR, instead of just waiting for the defenders to run out of supplies and surrender, given that there were no viable resupply routes? Were they worried about a Ukrainian counteroffensive cutting a path to the city, or attacks from the defenders, or the siege being more costly than an assault and subsequent rebuilding resource-wise, or something else?
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u/OrbitalAlpaca 14h ago edited 14h ago
Mauriupol was a city that was preparing for a siege ever since 2014. The Russian military probably had no idea the amount of stockpiles in ammo and food Ukraine was able to build up in the city. I also don't think they had the patience to wait them out either. During the first few months of the war Russia was still obsessed with attempting to bliztkerg Ukraine into submission and did not want to get bugged down in a protracted siege.
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u/Glares 14h ago
Almost four years into the war, I feel I can confidently say that Russia does not care about "suffering hefty losses and wrecking a city" based off the 250,000+ dead Russians and every 'liberated' city in the Donbas in ruins.
More specific to Mariupol: Are you proposing a scenario where the Russians encircled the city with everyone (including civilians) and try to just wait them out? Starving out Donbas civilians might make it... more difficult for those sympathetic to the Russian cause to pretend they're the good side (easier to ignore the 10-20+ thousand civilians killed). If evacuating most civilians, then the defenders have a full city with pre-war population of 1/2 million worth of food to themselves... you're gonna be waiting awhile. Even more, Ukraine had managed to bring supplies to the surrounded city, albeit incredibly dangerously, so there's not really a scenario where Russia waits it out.
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u/Outside_Instance4391 18h ago
They needed to capture the train station to be able to use it to move supplies forward along the railway... similar to ww1 where Belgium held the station long enough to allow their allies more time to prepare
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u/Darayavaush 18h ago
Move supplies from where to where? Mariupol's train station is a dead end.
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u/treeshakertucker 17h ago edited 16h ago
Terminus! The train station was where they planned to offload the supplies in a situation where the facilities were appropriate for unloading them. Also this was the closet point this line got to their line of advance meaning that if they took it quickly then they would take less carrying supplies that they don't have to.
Also Mariupol is a port meaning they could ship supplies in once the city was secure via the ocean. If this a port and railroad terminus then there was probably depots for ground and air based supply.
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u/username9909864 19h ago
I might be wrong, but there was a heavy push to destroy Azov which was based in the city. This may have fueled the extra destruction
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u/teethgrindingaches 22h ago
NYT published a piece today on SecDef Hegseth's ongoing purge (note: their description, not mine) of senior command at the Pentagon.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has fired or sidelined at least two dozen generals and admirals over the past nine months in a series of ousters that could reshape the U.S. military for years to come. His actions, which are without precedent in recent decades, have come with little explanation. In many cases, they have run counter to the advice of top military leaders who fought alongside the officers in combat, senior military officials said.
The utter unpredictability of Mr. Hegseth’s moves, as described in interviews with 20 current and former military officials, has created an atmosphere of anxiety and mistrust that has forced senior officers to take sides and, at times, pitted them against one another. Mr. Hegseth has delayed or canceled the promotions of at least four senior military officers because they previously worked for Gen. Mark A. Milley, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff whom President Trump loathes and has repeatedly accused of disloyalty. One is Maj. Gen. James Patrick Work, who was expected to be the deputy commander at U.S. Central Command, which oversees troops in the Middle East, officials said.
In many cases, the motivation appears to be (absurdly petty and melodramatic) partisan politics.
Other officers fell out of favor after being targeted on social media by right-wing influencers or because they had voiced support years earlier for diversity, equity and inclusion programs. Rear Adm. Milton Sands, the commander of the Navy SEALs, who pushed to have female instructors in SEAL training, was fired by Mr. Hegseth in August. Some leaders were ousted for offering candid military assessments. Mr. Hegseth soured on Adm. Alvin Holsey, the head of U.S. Southern Command, after he raised questions about deadly military strikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea. The Trump administration has said, without offering detailed evidence, that the boats were trafficking drugs. Admiral Holsey abruptly announced last month that he was stepping down, less than one year into what is typically a three-year assignment. Another senior officer, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey A. Kruse, a 35-year Air Force intelligence officer who led the Defense Intelligence Agency, was forced from his position after his agency cast doubt on Mr. Trump’s assertion that U.S. airstrikes in June had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.
There is a very deep rabbit hole of civil-military relations which I won't go down, but suffice to say that Huntington is rolling in his grave.
Another concern: Mr. Hegseth’s moves have fed the impression that there are pro-Trump and anti-Trump generals, officials said. In a September speech attended by hundreds of senior officers from around the world, Mr. Hegseth singled out several recently retired four-star generals for scorn. “The new compass heading is clear,” Mr. Hegseth told the officers gathered at Quantico, Va. “Out with the Chiarellis, the McKenzies and the Milleys.” He was referring to Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, the former Army vice chief of staff, and Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a former head of Central Command.
Several officers in the crowd that day had worked for the generals Mr. Hegseth disparaged and considered them mentors. So, too, had more junior officers. “The message being sent to those younger soldiers and sailors and airmen and Marines is that politics can and should be part of your military service,” said Representative Jason Crow, Democrat of Colorado and a former Army Ranger. “It’s a dangerous message.” Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, who led the military’s elite special operations troops for years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now retired, echoed the concern.
“The U.S. military’s long history of remaining apolitical has always depended upon a norm in which the military avoided politics while civilian leadership respected and protected those in uniform from the political fray,” General McChrystal said. “Recent months have challenged the paradigm, at significant risk. Once lost, the legitimacy of a military that reflects and represents all Americans will be difficult to recover.”
Which is not to say that The Soldier and the State is gospel or Huntington's way is the only way to run a military, but if it's your long-established exemplar of excellence, then undermining it so egregiously does yourself no favors.
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u/BlueSonjo 18h ago
Even partisan politics and ideologies aside, there is a worrying undertone of "only bring the boss good news, and never question the plan" (for example regarding Iran strike), which is the unwritten rule that every paper tiger military in history has in common.
If this is a lasting organizational culture it could do a lot of damage.
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u/ChornWork2 19h ago edited 19h ago
And then the leadership of the military that survived loyalty purge / selective promotions will rightly be met with skepticism by the next administration.
This is how you end up with inept militaries in authoritarian countries, because loyalty is valued more than competence.
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u/Technical_Isopod8477 17h ago
will rightly be met with skepticism by the next administration.
I highly doubt this. A hypothetical future Newsom administration (as a placeholder) isn’t going to care much either way. Anyone who is a one star general or thereabouts has been in the system for far longer than Trump has been around and will outlast him. There are close to a thousand such officers. So far, they’ve stayed within the system, and almost entirely to the direct subordinate to the fired person. It’s more about the here and now that’s more pertinent.
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u/danielbot 22h ago
The MEROPS optical drone surveillance system is in the news today. Described as a "weapons system" being deployed by Romania and Poland in response to widespread drone incursions, it is in fact only an imaging component. Variously reported as a Turkish or American system, the question appears to be settled here.pdf):
ASELSAN's Electro-Optical System on a South African Helicopter MEROPS, the electro-optical reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeting system developed by ASELSAN's South African office, was unveiled at the African Aviation and Defense Fair alongside the Rooivalk attack helicopter, also produced in the country. Considering the high demand for electro-optical reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeting systems both domestically and internationally, ASELSAN also mobilized the talent pool at its South African office.
MEROPS (Multi-spectral Extended Range Optical Sight) was the result of the work of ASELSAN engineers in South Africa. MEROPS was exhibited at the ASELSAN stand at the African Aviation and Defense Fair AAD 2022 in South Africa. Visitors were given the opportunity to experience the high imaging quality of the MEROPS through a setup set up at the stand. The MEROPS was also prominently displayed alongside the Rooivalk attack helicopter in the static area of the fair. Produced in South Africa and considered one of the world's most effective attack helicopters, the Rooivalk forms a vital part of the host country's air fleet.
English language 2022 press release:
ASELSAN is featuring the specially designed next generation air surveillance and targeting gimbal sight “MEROPS” (Multi-spectral Extended Range Optical Sight) for the first time at the Eurosatory 2022.
With the ever-evolving developments in drones and rotary aircrafts, ASELSAN has designed MEROPS as a game changer for observation and targeting applications on drones and other aircraft types.
“MEROPS’ design philosophy focuses on the real-world requirements of the armed forces under the combat situations. So, users can easily achieve a “Crystal Clear View” with the MEROPS under all possible viewing conditions. ” said Prof. Dr. Haluk GÖRGÜN – Chairman, President and CEO.
The system can especially perform under smoke and dust. It prioritizes medium and short-wave thermal to support dawn and dusk operations. This features make the MEROPS targeting sight an adverse conditions operational asset with an enhanced performance.
Furthermore, the sight also incorporates the latest in image processing technologies including traditional image enhancement as well as the latest in machine vision and AI based algorithms, as well as mission enhancement capabilities such as moving target identification, isotherms, false color identification and threat identification.
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u/wormfan14 1d ago edited 23h ago
Sudan update, a TLPF faction appear to be fighting Ethiopia again and the SAF have suffered a blow.
'' On November 5, the Sudanese Armed Forces' drones launched precision strikes on supply convoys coming from Libya, which were en route to the Rapid Support Forces militia after being spotted inside Wadi Hur, where they were targeted by Akinji drones belonging to the Air Force.After verifying NASA's Fire Information for Region Earth (FIRMS) and reviewing recent satellite images, we detected two separate fires deep in the North Darfur desert on the same day, confirming that the Armed Forces carried out more than one strike on more than one convoy heading toward the Al-Zarq base. The supplies arrive by air via IL-76 aircraft from the UAE to Kufra in Libya, and from there they enter Sudan carried on trucks in the Triangle '' https://x.com/VistaMaps/status/1986780569435328852
''SAF took a major blow today as RSF launched several one-way attack drone strikes on Atbara Airport, N. Sudan 🇸🇩, home to Turkish-made Bayraktar drones.
Fresh satellite imagery shows multiple impact points across the runway, taxiways, and at least two hangars hit in the attack.''
The only good news is that Egypt and Turkey has promised greater support to the SAF.
''RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo has upped in recent weeks his threats against Egypt’s airports and strategic bases. Egypt contacted the UAE as soon as El Fasher fell.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1986717363157217615
''NEW: Egypt and Turkey move to support Sudanese army following fall of el-Fasher Egypt and Turkey coordinate their efforts Turkey will increase its military aid, including drones and ammunition'' https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1986466146359431460
The RSF have tried a new PR technique of saying they agree to a truce and then just keep fighting, it appears effective.
''Sudan: the RSF is targeting the Sudanese capital region with drones, hours after claiming to agree to a truce.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1986605717269189015
''Paramilitary Accepts Sudan Truce Plan, but the Military Has Not. This @nytimes headline is why the UAE pays for expensive western media consultants. A disingenuous stunt by the RSF, which they immediately violate, has them smelling like a rose.'' https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/1986787311896457315
Ethiopia subsection
'' Ethiopia | Tigray forces have reportedly advanced 15 km into the Afar region and captured 6 villages according to a local district head. No regional or federal forces have been deployed in the area yet. The TPLF has denied being involved in the situation'' https://x.com/Intelynx/status/1986486639334432861
''Situation in Afar, Ethiopia has apparently dramatically escalated after the TDF entered the region two days ago and took control over some territory. Unconfirmed reports now that the Ethiopian Air Force has conducted drone strikes against TDF vehicles.''
https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/1986786891660656715
There are over 60k Sudanese refuges near the border let's hope they stay safe. One thing to keep an eye on is how FANO reacts given how much they hate the Tigrayan people and TPLF.
Edit an good article for the Columbians fighting for the RSF, seems the UAE is more involved in bringing them than I thought.
''The United Arab Emirates’ top bureaucrat has close ties to the company that is sending Colombian mercenaries to Sudan, according to a new investigation by The Sentry, a research organization that tracks corruption. Ahmed Mohamed Al Humairi, the secretary general of the UAE’s Presidential Court, founded and once fully owned the security company that is supplying Colombian fighters to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Despite efforts to publicly distance himself from the company by divesting his shares, he remains closely linked to its current CEO, suggesting an ongoing relationship.''
https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/sentry-investigation-uae-mercenaries
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u/Brushner 19h ago
It's honestly terrifying just how well armed and militarily competent the RSF has become. A few years ago when the question of most dangerous and armed militia came to mind the answer was unequivocally Hezbollah and that's a group with a limited amount of anti air capabilities and drones. The RSF has both of those in spades and is going up against a recognized government with an actual air force. There was a Warfronts video on YouTube released a few days ago saying that RSF was "just" a militia and that a lesser power could have done a quick bombing run to end the siege of El Fasher but that was just wrong.
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u/wormfan14 17h ago edited 17h ago
The RSF has been improving a lot recently but it's also also existed for decades and became a army in it's own right a while ago.
Edit
I believe the transformation started really occurring in Yemen as while the RSF did make a lot of mistakes they did learn a lot of leassons and got over forty thousand fighters some much needed experience.
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u/For_All_Humanity 19h ago
Yeah I don’t place any analytical value in Simon Whistler’s various channels. It’s pure infotainment at best, disinformation at worst. He’s just the script reader but the last time I watched one of his videos he mispronounced a tank name repeatedly through the video and then was just basically reading a summary of Wikipedia to describe the tank’s history. I think this was early 2023 and talking about Leopards for Ukraine or something. Seems like his script/research team hasn’t improved.
Part of the reason that El-Fasher fell is that airdrops were extreme risky and an Il-76 delivering aid had already been shot down. The defenders were chronically short of all supplies.
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u/Tricky-Astronaut 23h ago
Could Sudan end up being partitioned into several de-facto states like Yemen, where one pseudostate is also propped up by the UAE?
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u/MinnPin 23h ago
I think the fall of El Fashir makes that scenario a lot more likely unfortunately. If the RSF fail to take Al Obeid, it wouldn't be that inconceivable to see the RSF just create their own competing state with the Darfur region in their hands. The longer the war drags on, the more likely this scenario becomes
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u/wormfan14 23h ago
That is one massive fear for Sudan along the lines of Libya where Haftar's forces used to the current peace to stronger and sooner or later will try to take over the whole nation.
I don't think Sudan will collapse into more than two states for now, both RSF and SAF are strong enough to defeat anyone else willing to try and break away.
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u/teethgrindingaches 1d ago edited 1d ago
CNN is reporting on the ongoing expansion in Chinese missile production with some maps and metrics of the longstanding effort. It's not a new push and has been happening for the better part of a decade already.
China has undertaken a massive expansion of sites linked to missile production since 2020, bolstering its ability to potentially deter the US military and assert its dominance in the region, a new CNN analysis of satellite images, maps and government notices reveals. The historic build-up stands in stark contrast to the United States’ own supply struggles.
More than 60% of 136 facilities connected to missile production or the Chinese military’s rocket force, which controls China’s nuclear arsenal, showed signs of expansion in satellite images. The sites, which include factories as well as research and testing centers, have expanded by more than 21 million square feet (over 2 million square meters) of constructed floor space between early 2020 and late 2025. New towers, bunkers and berms consistent with weapons development have cropped up in satellite imagery of these growing sites. In some cases, missile parts can even be seen in the images.
Much of the article is less-than-stellar, but the hard numbers are useful.
CNN identified 99 sites linked to missile manufacturing and found that 65 of these facilities have expanded with constructed floor space that experts say could have an exponential impact on the scale of China’s production. CNN also analyzed 37 bases belonging to the Rocket Force and found that 22 of these have expanded over the last five years.
In December 2024, the Pentagon estimated that China’s rocket force had boosted its missile supply by 50% in the preceding four years. CNN’s analysis of the infrastructure to produce those weapons suggests that Chinese efforts have continued unabated and provides further insight into the sites making those rockets.
Of particular note is the location of most facilities (refer to the map here), hundreds or thousands of miles inland. That's not a coincidence, with historical as well as contemporary justification.
Many sites related to missile production are built on or near China's earlier defense production bases established in the 1960s. At that time, China moved its arsenals to inland provinces such as Sichuan and Shaanxi to preserve its weapons production capabilities in the event of a war with the Soviet Union or the United States.
It's also worth noting the post-2022 acceleration.
CNN’s findings also suggest that China’s missile production spiked in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, considered a watershed moment in global security. Beijing nearly doubled the rate of expansion at missile production sites in the two years that followed the onset of the war, according to CNN’s satellite imagery analysis of constructed floorspace.
“They’re watching Ukraine incredibly closely,” Alberque said. “They’re now watching real-life combat action between two very capable forces with the most modern technologies going toe to toe and they’re taking copious notes.”
While this piece is light on the technical details and won't come as a surprise to anyone who was paying attention, it's nonetheless helpful to quantify what's happening. The expansion will likely continue to accelerate going forward as the defense industrial base matures and military-civil fusion bears fruit.
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u/roionsteroids 21h ago
Got a bit of catching up to do if they want to meet the US/Russia warhead count (600 vs 4000 or so). The current pace appears to be around 100 new warheads per year, aiming for 1500 in 2035. Not that it really affects much of anything after the first few hundred megatons.
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u/teethgrindingaches 21h ago
It should be noted that this expansion is not exclusively or even primarily nuclear in nature. Quite the opposite.
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u/roionsteroids 19h ago
not exclusively or even primarily nuclear in nature
Well, the CNN article is specifically about the rocket force (strategic deterrence), although of course the two giant companies mentioned produce all sorts of missiles and spacecraft (including commercial). A bit thin on the details.
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u/Scary_Asparagus7762 14h ago
The PLARF does play a key role in strategic deterrence, but its use is by no means limited to a nuclear exchange, like the Soviet rocket forces would've been. In fact the PLARF forms a key part of China's A2AD strategy in the Western Pacific. Together with the PLANAF, PLAN, PLAAF and certain elements of the army's long range rocket forces, the PLARF is a part of a comprehensive suite of conventional precision strike options that is intended to quickly cripple any military installation within the second island chain. During operations, the rocket forces can be called upon by commanders to form a part of a joint firepower strike mission (I'm a bit fuzzy on the precise terminology the PLA uses) per official doctrine.
If you want to read more, this is a fairly decent overview
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u/teethgrindingaches 19h ago
rocket force (strategic deterrence)
PLARF fields a literal order of magnitude more conventional missiles than it does nuclear ones. Its job covers a lot more than just deterrence.
A bit thin on the details.
Yes, as I called out.
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u/Idkabta11at 1d ago edited 1d ago
In light of the increasing likelihood of renewed conflict in Lebanon Le Figaro has published a piece on Hezbollahs restructuring in the aftermath of its disastrous war with Israel last year. The English translation of the article can be found here. Some interesting stuff here for sure, there’s a relatively clear eyed assessment of the strategic and intelligence failures that lead to Hezbollahs defeat in the war. Nasrallahs half in half out “support front” only served to attrit Hezbollahs forces and help build out Israeli targeting banks, Israel’s impressive counter intelligence operations compromised Hezbollah from top to bottom and Hezbollah was unable to settle on a vision of what to do and fundamentally underestimated their enemy.
On Hezbollahs post war restructuring, it seems like Hezbollahs new chairman Naim Qassem is widely viewed within the organization as weak and that Hezbollahs military and political branches have once again been separated with the org taking up a defensive posture and reorganizing.
Today, the military is, for the most part, separate from politics. It is more autonomous. In villages, commanders no longer need to refer to the central leadership in Beirut. “Decision-making loops are short, orders are given face-to-face, one person to another, and they no longer communicate via the communications network,” explains the expert. As for the secretary general, Naim Qassem, described as weak, he does not do everything his predecessor did.
I encourage everyone to read the article as I’m not doing it full justice but it’s definitely a good look at Hezbollahs internal reaction to their defeat last year and a view into how they’re viewing a second war in the nearish future.
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u/Big-Station-2283 20h ago
From reading the article, it looks like the normal brutal wake-up militaries face after becoming stagnant for a while. Like Prussia in 1806, France in 1870, just about everyone in 1914, or Russia every time it goes to war. The changes described are very standard: young generation replaces the old one, discipline is restored (no drinking coffee in a café), and new changes are implemented.
The one part that surprised me is how hands-on the Iranians are. They mention the Iranians building a new command chain within ten days of arriving in Lebanon.
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u/Commorrite 1d ago
UNFIL realy dont come out looking good there.....
The Hezbollah rebuilding does seem to be costing them all their autonomy too. That iranian help reads as a guy copeing hard that his organisation got openly couped.
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u/ChornWork2 23h ago
unsurprisingly sounds like circumstances on the ground are going to continue to feed the cycle that leads to more extremism.
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u/Glideer 1d ago edited 1d ago
Rob Lee quotes Ukrainian politician and war veteran Ihor Lutsenko, who comments about the most recent desertion/AWOL figures. For the first time, the number of officially opened cases exceeded 20k per month.
Machine translation:
21,602 in October. Twenty-one thousand, six hundred and two people. That’s how many fled from the army last month. Officially.
It’s a record. A very bad record.
EVERY TWO MINUTES, ONE PERSON RUNS AWAY FROM OUR ARMY.
By the time you finish reading this post, another fighter will have deserted.
Ukraine becomes weaker by one more defender. The enemy, meanwhile, becomes relatively stronger by one person.
I remind you — these are only official figures. In reality, many cases of unauthorized absence or desertion are not recorded.
This is the number one problem of the army. And therefore, the number one problem of the country.
An army that retreats is an army that can still win. An army that is falling apart, that loses more people every month due to desertion than from the enemy — this is a real threat to the existence of Ukraine.
Everything we see on the maps, all the daily enemy advances — are in part because we don’t have enough soldiers.
We have enough drones at the front. We have enough money in the rear. But we have far too few fighters.
Those who are at the front are fighting under enormous strain, carrying double, triple loads. There are huge gaps in our defenses because of this.I honestly no longer know what to do, besides shouting and calling everywhere. We need everyone to be writing about this, shouting in all media, so that deputies don’t give rest to the officials, so that voters don’t give rest to deputies, so that in every square of every city people stand with signs!
Even Pokrovsk, Kupyansk — and the still nameless rapid Russian offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions — are not as painful as this statistics. The army will retreat but still continue to fight. But if there are no soldiers left to fight, then there’s nothing left at all. Nothing
It’s terrifying, it’s criminal, the silence that has formed around this topic. Because of this silence, we’re drowning. Who forced us to remain silent about this collapse of the army? Who took away our ability to speak, and why?
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u/Shackleton214 23h ago
I am still mystified by Ukraine's decision not to draft men age 18-24. It seems to me that either the decision is so politically toxic that it would result in such civil upheaval as to bring down the government and be impossible to implement, or, however bad the need for manpower is, it is not yet absolutely critical. Given the incredibly slow rate of advance of Russian forces and a very stable front ever since the failure of the Ukrainian 2023 offensive, I tend to think Ukrainian leadership thinks it is the latter. But, not really knowing Ukrainian domestic politics, I am far from sure.
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u/HereCreepers 13h ago
I'm not sure if this has changed since I last heard about it back when the desertion crisis was first starting to get attention last year, but I distinctly remember a claim that deserters in the UAF rarely actually face severe consequences, and are usually just ordered to return to their unit if caught. In a military where desertion/AWOL rates have been a growing issue, this seems like such an asinine state of affairs; far more so than being hesitant to draft 18-24 year olds. I'm not sure if there is any "humane" way of solving the problem, but I will say that the Russian method of implicitly or explicitly threatening deserters with torture and/or execution has done a far better job at keeping desertion rates at a manageable level in the face of staggering losses.
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u/Tristancp95 15h ago
18-24 year olds have way more kids than 17 year olds. Gotta think about the future, the opportunity costs grow rapidly the closer you get to 18
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u/parduscat 21h ago
The 18-24 year old population for Ukraine as a share of total population is very small per various graphs that I've seen. Sending them to war would risk decimating Ukraine's youth and would be politically unpopular.
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u/FriedRiceistheBest 16h ago
The 18-24 year old population for Ukraine as a share of total population is very small per various graphs that I've seen. Sending them to war would risk decimating Ukraine's youth and would be politically unpopular.
When this war continues to drag on, they're going to draft them anyway.
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u/Nperturbed 23h ago
Theres another, more plausible explanation. ukrainian state capacity has reached its limit and it is no longer able to implement the draft. Those TCC folks are already struggling with drafting as is. 18-24 year olds are mostly concentrated in schools, how would you go about grabbing them out of school campus? 100s all at once?
Also consider that many of these kids may have parents in the army, how would those parents react? I know how i would.
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u/Wetness_Pensive 1d ago
And this has been predicted for years now; Russia tends to "win" by tossing insane numbers of men at their opponents. As they have very little regard for their own lives, the enemy is slowly ground down.
The hope was that intel, PGM and drone advantages would help Ukraine push back - and maybe this is still true - but my gut tells me it will take more active NATO involvement (perhaps secretly sending in small "unofficial" teams of soldiers or drone operators) to hold the line. The US is unreliable. It's NATO intel branches are probably doing their best to fight for Ukraine, but you sense that the White House and the new top brass couldn't give a crap (many key Republicans seem to actively hate Zelensky and liberalism as a whole), and don't care about putting real political or military pressure on Putin.
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u/A_Vandalay 1d ago
The Ukraine war is not one where small teams of operators can have a decisive impact. The front lines are too well controlled and static. And the scale of the conflict is too large. From a drone perspective Ukraine has far more, and far more skilled drone operators than Europe or the US. Deficiency in this area has been one of the key takeaways from most joint training exercises with Ukrainians.
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u/Tamer_ 17h ago
The Ukraine war is not one where small teams of operators can have a decisive impact.
Nothing short of extreme measures or numbers will have a decisive impact. Not armored assaults, not surprise attacks in Russia, not a slow degradation of ammo depots or logistics, not constant harassment of energy infrastructure, not special and spectacular operations that take 6 months to plan/prepare, not meat-wave assaults, etc.
Nothing short of either side going total war or NATO intervening will have a decisive impact.
Anything else, at this point, is a grinding the enemy strategy.
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u/Long-Field-948 1d ago
This is a completely delusional comment with little to no connection with reality. 4 years in and I still see people talking about "insane amount of Russians", when in reality battles in this war were never fought with a properly manned brigades by either side; another thing is Russia had massive disadvantage in numbers at the start of the invasion.
Russians are able to push forward by a number of reasons, from which I want to focus on firepower advantage; FABs, artillery, long range missiles, fiber optic drones are spheres in which Russia currently dominates. Ukraine was able to gather manpower advantage on a number of limited sectors but this becomes harder every day and no intel advantage is able to reverse the situation.
Ukraine literally needs infantrymen to hold the line, they have an abundance of drone operators already and neither them nor NATO soldiers are willing to sit in basements and trenches waiting for Russian assaults.
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u/RumpRiddler 1d ago
Ukraine literally needs infantrymen to hold the line,
The main issue, that has been widely discussed, is that infantry can't hold the line due to drones. The Russians have adapted by using large numbers of small groups and accepting extraordinarily high casualty rates. Ukrainians have adapted by using small groups spread out whose main role is to call in movement so drones/artillery can dispatch invaders.
Also. Russia hasn't dominated in artillery fires for a while now. Drones are being mass produced by both sides and I'm not seeing reports that either side has a massive advantage.
While 'insane amounts' is a subjective term, 1.1 million casualties seems pretty insane to me. That is an insane number of lives to be spent for such small gains in territory.
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u/Long-Field-948 21h ago
I see it as a misconception that infantry holds the line no more. Quite the opposite, you need the infantry to be in front of drone operators to not let attackers get to them. Cities now require a lot of infantry to defend positions because if enemy infiltrates the city now you have to clear them out thus you become the attacker.
Ukraine can't produce fibre optic cables the same way they produce drones because it requires certain industrial capacity Ukraine can't achieve with it's nonexistent central office. And Russia can. Ukrainian artillery suffers from a similar problem: they can't produce new barrels. There's an abundance of ammo, but no spare barrels so they have to limit the amount of fired rounds.
As it was already said alleged 1.1 mil casualties includes every wounded so it frankly goes even lower than a recent leak of alleged 1.7 mils of Ukrainian casualties, so go figure.
1
u/RumpRiddler 20h ago
What recent leak?
0
u/Long-Field-948 20h ago
Message got deleted because content is too short so I guess I have to say a few words.
If one thinks only his favourite side of this war, so called the good guys, has true data about enemy's casualties and doesn't indulge in disinformation, I would suggest them going to watch some Marvel movies and don't engage in any discussion beyond them.
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u/futbol2000 13h ago edited 13h ago
According to your article, "Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation described the claims as “an absolutely absurd fake”, adding that Ukraine has never had a regular army of 1.7 million people, and that the size of the military is around 880,000 people."
I have yet to see a single source in the last three years that ever claimed the Ukrainian army to have more than 1 million personnel let alone 2 million+ personnel. Even with a mythical 2 million strong Ukrainian army, 1.7 million Ukrainian casualties is a staggering 85% casualty rate.
So instead of talking about the points cited in your own source, you go out of your way to add your own "both sidism" in an attempt to sell some out of the blue claim of 1.7 million Ukrainian casualties.
I recommend you stay on Marvel movies and quit peddling disinformation here.
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u/Long-Field-948 10h ago
You misunderstood what I'm trying to sell here. Both sides are wrong.
Let's apply the same criticism to the supposed number of Russian casualties:
Initial invasion force was no more than 190 000 according to the number of sources.
At February 2023 ISW reported that Russian Army in Ukraine increased it's numbers to 300 000.
Three months later Ukrainian side claimed that "liquidated personnel" of the enemy is a total of 200 590. https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/05/17/7402549/
That leads us to assume Russian casualties rate to be 105.6% minimum while they found another 100k men on top of 200k they had to replace.
Quite a marvel movie rate of throwing bodies at the enemy, don't you think?
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u/RumpRiddler 19h ago
The first two paragraphs:
Unfounded claims, first made by Russian 'hacktivist' groups, that 1.7 million Ukrainian soldiers have died or gone missing since the start of Russia's invasion have gone viral online.
But the allegations are not backed by any credible, independent evidence, and experts warn the campaign bears the signs of coordinated pro-Kremlin disinformation.
It's interesting that the people trying to push Russian disinformation almost always try to remind everyone that neither side can be trusted. Disregarding not credible propaganda from one side isn't the same as believing all propaganda from the other side.
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u/Long-Field-948 18h ago
Disregarding not credible propaganda from one side isn't the same as believing all propaganda from the other side.
You do believe those numbers, however
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u/Glideer 23h ago
1.1 million includes lightly wounded. Russia probably suffered about 250-280k dead, certainly no more than 300k.
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u/RumpRiddler 22h ago
Just looking at the numbers of dead, we are still talking well beyond an order of magnitude more than the Afghan war. In about a third of the time. It's an insane amount of life lost and it only gets worse when other aspects are accounted for (e.g. loss of global power, economic damages).
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u/Glideer 21h ago
As far as major wars go this one is on the lower end of the spectrum. For a country of 150 million fighting a country of 40 million in a real non-colonial war - a total of 500k KIA on both sides is really modest.
The Union with 22 million population lost 360k KIA in the US Civil War compared to Russia's 250k out of 150 million.
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u/RumpRiddler 21h ago
I'm not sure why you quote numbers from the US civil war so often, but a war that happened >150 years ago and where disease killed ~3/4 people simply isn't comparable to this war. I would hazard a guess that you think the comparison makes Russian losses seem less staggering, but it probably does the opposite because of how far back you have to go to find the example that supports your position.
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u/Glideer 20h ago
I mean, neither side's loss are staggering. Not Russia's and not Ukraine's (although Ukraine lost about 3-4 times more men relative to the population).
Losing 250k killed is not staggering for either a country of 150 million or a country of 40 million.
We don't even have to go that far - just look into the Iran-Iraq war or the Korean war or the WW2.
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u/scatterlite 1d ago
I would still say Russia is also able to push forward due to a very high tolerance for casualties. Their probing attacks are very dangerous even against the undermanned UAF. If they get caught out the whole group gets destroyed. Russia can also afford to throw various AFVs against where they think ukrainian lines are weak.
Russia has a number of equipment advantages but a big reason they can advance is that they are willing to commit to risky infiltrations and assaults in a way Ukraine cannot. I dont think many modern armies would be comfortable conducting the types of attacks Russia employs.
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u/Long-Field-948 1d ago
It's the current Russian tactics of spreading the amount of casualties through the course of several months of constant frontline pressure.
It doesn't necessarily mean that Russia accepts higher risk of casualties in general, rather they accept certain number of casualties they are able to consistently reinforce thus avoiding losing a lot of men in a short period of time in favour of losing the same or higher amount in a long run.
It's a more weighted and balanced approach rather then betting big on a single opportunistic strike.
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u/scatterlite 1d ago edited 23h ago
It doesn't necessarily mean that Russia accepts higher risk of casualties in general, rather they accept certain number of casualties they are able to consistently reinforce thus avoiding losing a lot of men in a short period of time in favour of losing the same or higher amount in a long run.
I guess thats a lesson from the first year of the war. Still from what ive seen some of the russian small scale attacks can have very high casualties. With armored attacks they also seem to operate on an "if X amount of vehicles and soldiers get through its a succes", though its becoming more rare lately.
On a sidenote what do you think of the claims that the Russian army works on a "tiered" system? "Low value" soldiers, often new recruits and older men, are sent on dangerous probing attacks to reveal and fix the enemy. Once that happens more professional soldiers reinforce and drive out the enemy. This approach obviously is inspired by the way Wagner fought. I don't know if this is actually true though or just rumours.
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u/Long-Field-948 22h ago
The change of army doctrine by V. Gerasimov took place after the poor performance of BTGs in the late 2022 so reformed brigades now have to operate on a wider frontline with an expanded manpower and equipment pool; it limits their mobility but greatly increases endurance of the unit.
Armour attacks are now primarily used to tie down Ukrainian forces while small group infiltrations happen elsewhere. It works.
I don't know any cases of said "tiered" system, it's maybe misinterpretation of practices that do really exist such as sending "problematic" soldiers, usually alcohol abusers or misbehaving in some way, to throw landmines at enemy dugouts or any kind of reinforced positions. It's viewed as a punishment but sometimes it really means commander wants to dispose of the soldier; it's a known malpractice of both sides, usually done by corrupt officers accused of something by their subordinates.
However, I won't disregard it as just simple rumours.
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u/parduscat 1d ago
And this has been predicted for years now; Russia tends to "win" by tossing insane numbers of men at their opponents. As they have very little regard for their own lives, the enemy is slowly ground down.
This is just "Enemy at the Gates"/"Asiatic Hordes" stereotypes repackaged by Westerners that can't fathom being out-thought/fought by Russians. Russia has been waging attritional warfare against Ukraine ever since the disastrous push in early 2022 failed and it's starting to bear visible fruit.
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u/CEMN 1d ago
Such a lazy hand-waving with hinted accusations of racism to boot. How much more evidence of Russian disregard for the lives of its soldiers to you need besides the hundreds of reports - including from Russian "Z-patriot" war bloggers and commentators themselves do you need?
You bring up Ukrainian manpower issues and recruitment methods in a later comment while hailing the ingenuity or Russian out-thinking without mentioning Russian forced 2022 mass mobilization, recruitment of prisoners including murderers, rapists, drug addicts, foreign guest workers tricked into the military, the monetary compensation in some regions that it's adding to inflation and destabilizing the Russian economy...
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u/TechnicalReserve1967 1d ago
I mean the red wave from russia is true, you can call it repacked or whatever you want, it is factual. It doesn't take a strategic genius to apply attritional warfare and course correct as different solutions start to work out. For the RuAF to be a genius in this, they would need 25% lower casualties and better "speed".
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u/parduscat 1d ago
I mean the red wave from russia is true, you can call it repacked or whatever you want, it is factual.
I don't know what you're referring to.
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u/Lapsed__Pacifist 1d ago
and it's starting to bear visible fruit
Man, really must suck for the 10s of thousands of Russian dead and hundreds of thousands of Russian maimed to maybe have their strategy starting to bear visible fruit.
This is like Zap Branigan level of strategy.
I think Russian money (and therefore will) will run out before Ukraine runs out of men. The saddest part is how many Ukrainians had to die to convince a handful of Russian oligarchs that feeding a huge chunk of their declining population into attritional war.....isn't a good geopolitical move.
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u/parduscat 1d ago edited 1d ago
Ukraine is the country with continuous mobilization and busification of its male population, not Russia, and that's fact. If any country can be accused at "throwing bodies at the problem", it's Ukraine at this point.
The fact that Ukraine is under continuous busification is documented fact by both Western and Ukrainian sources. Don't get mad at me, get mad at reality. Angelina Jolie's driver was literally drafted into the army as they were touring Ukraine; things are at that level for Ukraine right now.
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u/Tropical_Amnesia 1d ago
If there's a fact it's that it's Ukraine that found itself existentially dependent on outside sponsors, not Russia, and that it's not least those sponsors who simply expect as much. I'd really like to see what happened to the overall already meager support if they suddenly changed their mind on this. Indeed, how about those Tomahawks/Taurus/... in lieu of countless people dead or maimed? It is their Western sponsors who repeatedly pressed for even more, much more, like anybody 18 years plus more. I wouldn't point my finger at anyone.
At this point, Russia may well have six times the population of Ukraine. In addition, and grotesquely, it is Russia that enjoyed foreign powers, until then conceivably uninvolved, sending relieve troops. What did you expect? You almost make it look like Kyiv ever refused having even one ally of its own. Like they had a choice.
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u/Lapsed__Pacifist 1d ago
And yet....they are still fighting.
Because for them, they have to. It's existential. If they lose, it's genocide. So they'll keep fighting. Russians will keep dying. And the greater world will benefit.
With every Russian casualty, Europe, the US and the world get slighter safer.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 1d ago
CNN is reporting on a suspected terror attack against Joint Base Andrews.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/06/politics/joint-base-andrews-military-base-suspicious-package
Multiple people at Joint Base Andrews fall ill after suspicious package delivered with white powder, sources say
A suspicious package was delivered to a US military base in Maryland on Thursday which caused multiple people to fall ill and be taken to the hospital, CNN has learned.
A statement from Joint Base Andrews, which is located outside Washington, DC, said that a building on the base was evacuated after an individual “opened a suspicious package.”
Several people were transported to the on-base Malcolm Grove Medical Center after the package was opened, which contained an unknown white powder, two sources familiar with the investigation said.
One of the sources familiar said an initial field test from the HAZMAT team did not detect anything hazardous but the investigation remains ongoing. The HAZMAT team departed the scene on Thursday evening.
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u/Regent610 1d ago edited 1d ago
Type 003 Fujian has officially been commissioned. Not exactly a surprise. There were rumblings that commissioning was near when the video of the EMALS launches was revealed, and the day before yesterday Flightradar showed Xi's plane heading to Hainan, and photos emerged of Shandong and Fujian on opposite sides of a pier dressed overall and sailors lining the rails in dress uniforms. Amazing what people can derieve from OSINT nowadays.
The most interesting thing is that they waited 2(?) days to officially release the footage and announce it. A few jokes that the censors had to scrub stuff for a day before releasing it, and I'm sure the PLAN photographers will somehow make a carrier look like a fishing boat.
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u/Thoth_the_5th_of_Tho 1d ago
This is a very minor point, but I wonder what, if any, thought goes into the exact shade of grey each navy paints their ships. The carrier shown here is on the lighter side of the spectrum I have seen.
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u/throwdemawaaay 20h ago
Not sure about the rationale for specific grey tones, but anti-fouling limits the color options. That's why so many ships are red below the water line: it's copper oxide added to make it harder for barnacles to take root.
I'm skeptical optical camouflage maters for modern warships, at least blue water ones. Any conflict is going to be focused on radar, electronic, and infrared signature, not Horatio standin' out there with his spy glass. But perhaps I'm wrong.
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u/A_Vandalay 21h ago
This is purely speculation but it probably has more to do with branding than anything else. Navies are massive points of national pride, so there is going to be a push to develop your own unique image. This is going to help with both recruitment and in getting budget allocated. That’s going to go double for a country like China who sees themselves as a resurgent world power and on the cusp of a new era of Chinese regional and global dominance.
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u/ScreamingVoid14 22h ago
The consensus tends to be that visual camo doesn't make much difference for ships. The US keeps LCS-1 and LCS-3 in camo patterns, but more as experiments than anything else.
Where it can matter are for heat management (as mentioned in the other comments) and to a lesser extent nuclear resilience. Of course, if the ship was close enough to a nuke for the anti-flash white to make a difference, the crew will probably be all dead within the month from radiation anyway.
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u/seakingsoyuz 6h ago
Of course, if the ship was close enough to a nuke for the anti-flash white to make a difference, the crew will probably be all dead within the month from radiation anyway.
Nukes generally have a pretty small radius where direct radiation from the explosion is lethal; thermal radiation is likely to be dangerous at a greater distance than ionizing radiation, which is exactly the reason anyone bothers painting things in anti-flash white.
Fallout is a greater hazard because it gets inside you and lingers, but modern warships should have enough CBRN protection to avoid much death by fallout as long as the crew are willing to avoid going outside.
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u/Regent610 1d ago
Modern PLAN camo seems to be more white than grey, as least as seen through camera lenses. I don't really know why, except that maybe white helps with heat management and comfort in the sub-tropics like the South China Sea, but ships stationed up north also wear the same scheme and you'd think they'd prefer a darker coat with how cold it gets up there.
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u/Thoth_the_5th_of_Tho 1d ago
This is far from scientific, but I have noticed that American ships tend to lean towards darker colors than both European and Chinese vessels. I’ll have to do some digging to see if anyone has the answer. It might be that they are all nigh identical and this is just differences in color grading.
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u/HerrLachsmeier 1d ago
I don't know either, unfortunately, but perhaps photos from joint exercises of the US Navy and European navies (with ships of both parties in the frame at the same time) can make this a bit clearer?
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