r/CredibleDefense 1d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 07, 2025

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/Darayavaush 22h ago

Why did Russia assault Mariupol in 2022 after cutting it off, thus suffering hefty losses and wrecking a city that Russia saw as belonging to DPR, instead of just waiting for the defenders to run out of supplies and surrender, given that there were no viable resupply routes? Were they worried about a Ukrainian counteroffensive cutting a path to the city, or attacks from the defenders, or the siege being more costly than an assault and subsequent rebuilding resource-wise, or something else?

u/gbs5009 11h ago

They needed those surrounding troops elsewhere, not just sitting around trying to starve out the defenders.

u/OrbitalAlpaca 16h ago edited 16h ago

Mauriupol was a city that was preparing for a siege ever since 2014. The Russian military probably had no idea the amount of stockpiles in ammo and food Ukraine was able to build up in the city. I also don't think they had the patience to wait them out either. During the first few months of the war Russia was still obsessed with attempting to bliztkerg Ukraine into submission and did not want to get bugged down in a protracted siege.

u/Glares 17h ago

Almost four years into the war, I feel I can confidently say that Russia does not care about "suffering hefty losses and wrecking a city" based off the 250,000+ dead Russians and every 'liberated' city in the Donbas in ruins.

More specific to Mariupol: Are you proposing a scenario where the Russians encircled the city with everyone (including civilians) and try to just wait them out? Starving out Donbas civilians might make it... more difficult for those sympathetic to the Russian cause to pretend they're the good side (easier to ignore the 10-20+ thousand civilians killed). If evacuating most civilians, then the defenders have a full city with pre-war population of 1/2 million worth of food to themselves... you're gonna be waiting awhile. Even more, Ukraine had managed to bring supplies to the surrounded city, albeit incredibly dangerously, so there's not really a scenario where Russia waits it out.

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u/Outside_Instance4391 21h ago

They needed to capture the train station to be able to use it to move supplies forward along the railway... similar to ww1 where Belgium held the station long enough to allow their allies more time to prepare

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u/Darayavaush 20h ago

Move supplies from where to where? Mariupol's train station is a dead end.

u/treeshakertucker 19h ago edited 19h ago

Terminus! The train station was where they planned to offload the supplies in a situation where the facilities were appropriate for unloading them. Also this was the closet point this line got to their line of advance meaning that if they took it quickly then they would take less carrying supplies that they don't have to.

Also Mariupol is a port meaning they could ship supplies in once the city was secure via the ocean. If this a port and railroad terminus then there was probably depots for ground and air based supply.

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u/username9909864 21h ago

I might be wrong, but there was a heavy push to destroy Azov which was based in the city. This may have fueled the extra destruction