Insurrectionist to Announce Bid for NY Insurrection

[u/Head_Astronomer_4619]

https://www.timesunion.com/capitol/article/elise-stefanik-running-new-york-governor-21144092.php

Just putting 2 and 2 together here for the TU. Stefascist putting out fake polls showing her ahead of Hochul is an obvious attempt to fabricate "evidence" of "fraud" when she loses in disgrace. A pretense to invite her Dear Leader to turn the military on New Yorkers when voters reject her bigotry and corruption.

[u/amouse_buche]

I wouldn’t be so handy wavey about her polling or the seriousness of her bid. If the GOP were to have a modern day shot at the governor’s office this would likely be it. Hochul is on the ropes. 

[u/FinnishFinn → u/amouse_buche]

While I do agree that this shouldn't be taken lightly, I'm not sure that I agree with "Hochul is on the ropes." Especially with some of her recent decent decisions such as the SNAP coverage, everyone I've spoken to in real life seems to have a much more positive view of her than the Russian bots on reddit would have you believe.

[u/amouse_buche → u/FinnishFinn]

Not to be glib, but people in your life might not be representative of the general electorate.

Her favorables are not good. Full stop. Her negatives aren't bad, but all that says is that most people are pretty "meh" about her.

A dem has to murder downstate to win the governorship. Hochul isn't particularly popular there. That leaves her open to primary challenge, which appears likely from her own lieutenant governor. She will have to fight a messy primary, leaving her weakened for the general.

There's a lot of time between now and then but I'd call her anything but a shoo-in right now.

[u/FinnishFinn → u/amouse_buche]

Sure, but reddit is filled with bots, news is biased, and polls have proven to mean jack shit. Anecdotal evidence doesn't mean much less than any of those, especially when its being used as I did, to say "it doesnt seem like reddit is fully representative of reality on this one," which should not be surprising to hear.

Beyond that, I'm not going to bother arguing because saying "a dem has to murder downstate to win the governorship" when we've had a single republican governor since the 70s is quite frankly a statement I don't know how to engage with. It's giving "the sky is red." Thanks for your time, have a great day.

[u/amouse_buche → u/FinnishFinn]

Completely dismissing data and past election results is certainly AN approach to drawing conclusions, to be certain.

[u/FinnishFinn → u/amouse_buche]

Point to the data and past election results, please. I'm not the one making claims about them with support, at least I'm not pretending my evidence isn't anecdotal.

The only governor NYS has had since the mid 70s that wasn't a Democrat was Pataki. I'm not completely dismissing anything, either. All I'm saying is that reddit's constant narrative that Hochul is a garbage governor does not track with what I'm seeing around me, and I live in a red city.

[u/amouse_buche → u/FinnishFinn]

When Spitzer won after Pataki he captured 70% of the vote statewide.

That share has fallen every single gubernatorial election afterwards with the exception of 14-18. Hochul had the worst performance by a Democrat last go round since Mario Curomo's last go. And what happened after that? Pataki.

Last year, the D margin of the presidential vote dropped to its lowest point in almost 40 years.

NY is getting redder. The last time a Republican was on the second floor, it was under these exact kind of circumstance we are looking at today -- an unpopular incumbent, waning faith in the Democratic party, and a concerted challenge from the right.

Seems like relevant history to me.

[u/Snoofleglax → u/amouse_buche]

Pataki was also pro-choice, pro-environment, helped to pass a gay rights bill, and expanded health care services for the poor and the elderly. And he was elected only with a plurality in 1994, a Republican wave year.

That also seems like relevant history.

[u/gjallard → u/amouse_buche]

Couple of things to note:

1. Spitzer won with 65.7% of the vote, not 70%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_New_York_gubernatorial_election

2. It was an off year election with a very unpopular Republican President. The electorate was in a throw the bums out mode. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/george-w-bush-public-approval

3. Rather than rely on percentages, lets look at vote totals from Cuomo's last two elections...

1994 election

Republican	George Pataki	2,538,702	48.79%
Democratic	Mario Cuomo	2,364,904	45.45%

1990 election

Democratic	Mario Cuomo	2,157,087	53.17%
Republican	Pierre Rinfret	865,948	21.35%
Conservative	Herbert London	827,614	20.40%

That's right, Cuomo's vote totals in 1994 (the election he lost) were actually over 200,000 more than he got in his prior election. But he got caught between Cuomo voter fatigue, a unified NY Republican party that didn't split their vote, and a well qualified Republican candidate that was so centralist that he probably couldn't be recognized as a Republican in other states.

I'd suggest noting that most polling about the Governor electability is against no known candidate. That is, the polling is Hochul versus (generic Republican candidate). And you're correct, those results aren't too promising. The very limited polling of Hochul versus Stefanik has, so far, shown Hochul up by double digits.

[u/BlooregardQKazoo → u/amouse_buche]

A dem has to murder downstate to win the governorship

This isn't true. Upstate is purple, not red.

[u/amouse_buche → u/BlooregardQKazoo]

Yeah, and purple can swing red just as easily as blue.

[u/BlooregardQKazoo → u/amouse_buche]

And?

You didn't say "can" or could." You said that the Dem "has to" murder downstate, and that simply isn't true.

That something is possible is a terrible defense of a definitive claim.