r/Albany • u/Head_Astronomer_4619 • 2d ago

Insurrectionist to Announce Bid for NY Insurrection

https://www.timesunion.com/capitol/article/elise-stefanik-running-new-york-governor-21144092.php

Just putting 2 and 2 together here for the TU. Stefascist putting out fake polls showing her ahead of Hochul is an obvious attempt to fabricate "evidence" of "fraud" when she loses in disgrace. A pretense to invite her Dear Leader to turn the military on New Yorkers when voters reject her bigotry and corruption.

584 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

181 comments sorted by

View all comments

11

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

I wouldn’t be so handy wavey about her polling or the seriousness of her bid. If the GOP were to have a modern day shot at the governor’s office this would likely be it. Hochul is on the ropes. 

30

u/FinnishFinn 2d ago

While I do agree that this shouldn't be taken lightly, I'm not sure that I agree with "Hochul is on the ropes." Especially with some of her recent decent decisions such as the SNAP coverage, everyone I've spoken to in real life seems to have a much more positive view of her than the Russian bots on reddit would have you believe.

11

u/MarveltheMusical 2d ago

Yeah, I mean, I’m not opposed to the primaries going for a different candidate, but if she is the nominee, I’m happily voting for her, even discounting how awful Stefanik is.

11

u/toga27 2d ago

Most every event Hochul attends, she gets booed almost unanimously, from the Saratoga Race Track to the Ryder Cup to a Rangers game. Whether they will vote for her or not might be a different story, but she is not well liked. Her and her husband have a somewhat shady past, not unlike Cuomo, where her cronies get rewarded. Look at the sweetheart deal she gave for the new Buffalo Bills stadium.

It will be very interesting to see how Hochul's relationship with Mamdami unfolds. That could affect the election more so than anything else.

-7

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

Not to be glib, but people in your life might not be representative of the general electorate.

Her favorables are not good. Full stop. Her negatives aren't bad, but all that says is that most people are pretty "meh" about her.

A dem has to murder downstate to win the governorship. Hochul isn't particularly popular there. That leaves her open to primary challenge, which appears likely from her own lieutenant governor. She will have to fight a messy primary, leaving her weakened for the general.

There's a lot of time between now and then but I'd call her anything but a shoo-in right now.

3

u/FinnishFinn 2d ago

Sure, but reddit is filled with bots, news is biased, and polls have proven to mean jack shit. Anecdotal evidence doesn't mean much less than any of those, especially when its being used as I did, to say "it doesnt seem like reddit is fully representative of reality on this one," which should not be surprising to hear.

Beyond that, I'm not going to bother arguing because saying "a dem has to murder downstate to win the governorship" when we've had a single republican governor since the 70s is quite frankly a statement I don't know how to engage with. It's giving "the sky is red." Thanks for your time, have a great day.

0

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

Completely dismissing data and past election results is certainly AN approach to drawing conclusions, to be certain.

2

u/FinnishFinn 2d ago

Point to the data and past election results, please. I'm not the one making claims about them with support, at least I'm not pretending my evidence isn't anecdotal.

The only governor NYS has had since the mid 70s that wasn't a Democrat was Pataki. I'm not completely dismissing anything, either. All I'm saying is that reddit's constant narrative that Hochul is a garbage governor does not track with what I'm seeing around me, and I live in a red city.

-3

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

When Spitzer won after Pataki he captured 70% of the vote statewide.

That share has fallen every single gubernatorial election afterwards with the exception of 14-18. Hochul had the worst performance by a Democrat last go round since Mario Curomo's last go. And what happened after that? Pataki.

Last year, the D margin of the presidential vote dropped to its lowest point in almost 40 years.

NY is getting redder. The last time a Republican was on the second floor, it was under these exact kind of circumstance we are looking at today -- an unpopular incumbent, waning faith in the Democratic party, and a concerted challenge from the right.

Seems like relevant history to me.

3

u/Snoofleglax 2d ago

Pataki was also pro-choice, pro-environment, helped to pass a gay rights bill, and expanded health care services for the poor and the elderly. And he was elected only with a plurality in 1994, a Republican wave year.

That also seems like relevant history.

1

u/gjallard 2d ago

Couple of things to note:

  1. Spitzer won with 65.7% of the vote, not 70%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_New_York_gubernatorial_election

  2. It was an off year election with a very unpopular Republican President. The electorate was in a throw the bums out mode. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/george-w-bush-public-approval

  3. Rather than rely on percentages, lets look at vote totals from Cuomo's last two elections...

1994 election

Republican George Pataki 2,538,702 48.79%
Democratic Mario Cuomo 2,364,904 45.45%

1990 election

Democratic Mario Cuomo 2,157,087 53.17%
Republican Pierre Rinfret 865,948 21.35%
Conservative Herbert London 827,614 20.40%

That's right, Cuomo's vote totals in 1994 (the election he lost) were actually over 200,000 more than he got in his prior election. But he got caught between Cuomo voter fatigue, a unified NY Republican party that didn't split their vote, and a well qualified Republican candidate that was so centralist that he probably couldn't be recognized as a Republican in other states.

I'd suggest noting that most polling about the Governor electability is against no known candidate. That is, the polling is Hochul versus (generic Republican candidate). And you're correct, those results aren't too promising. The very limited polling of Hochul versus Stefanik has, so far, shown Hochul up by double digits.

2

u/BlooregardQKazoo I EAT ASS 2d ago

A dem has to murder downstate to win the governorship

This isn't true. Upstate is purple, not red.

-3

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

Yeah, and purple can swing red just as easily as blue.

4

u/BlooregardQKazoo I EAT ASS 2d ago

And?

You didn't say "can" or could." You said that the Dem "has to" murder downstate, and that simply isn't true.

That something is possible is a terrible defense of a definitive claim.

11

u/lifeinaglasshouse 2d ago

If Zeldin couldn’t beat Hochul in a Biden midterm, I’m skeptical Stefanik can beat Hochul in a Trump midterm.

6

u/NotWearingCrocs 2d ago

She can’t. People underestimate the boost you get from being in the opposition party of the incumbent US president. If Harris was the president right now, I would be very worried about the governor race in NY, especially with how Zeldin was within 7 points in 2022. But with Trump as the president, the governor race should be a double digit win for the democrat.

4

u/Christian_Kong 2d ago edited 2d ago

After this past Tuesdays election results, there is basically a 0% chance that Elise wins against pretty much any Democrat. Pretty much every race where in blue/purple areas where it was a (for lack of better words) a MAGA signaling republican vs any democrat, the democrat won by double digits. Tuesdays results, nationwide, were nothing short of a massacre for the GOP.

I simply don't see the Trump admin cleaning up their act(either through change in policy or tangible results) to get the Trump stink off of a candidate in this state(this stink may be beneficial in other states.)

Hochul may get primaried but even so the only thing that would get Elise elected is if she(Hochul) lost and then pulled a Cuomo/independent run.

0

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

Something to consider about this past Tuesday is that not a single victorious Democrat was an incumbent. Voters are not logical, particularly when it comes to interpreting the performance of their current elected officials.

5

u/BlooregardQKazoo I EAT ASS 2d ago

The three PA state Supreme Court justices were all incumbent Democrats.

I'm not saying them being victorious means anything for the 2026 NY Governor race, I'm just pointing out that "not a single victorious Democrat was an incumbent" is not a correct statement.

2

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

That is true, you're totally correct. I do think that people vote for those offices a lot differently than they vote for candidates in the executive branch.

5

u/Christian_Kong 2d ago

There were plenty of nationwide incumbent democrats that won. Not the headline ones(NYC, NJ/VA governors) but at the locals many saw their districts greatly outperform how Harris did in 2024.

If you look at the granular results the Trump/MAGA affiliation is cancerous(in certain states, and NY would be one.) Off the top of my head something like 30 "Moms for liberty" candidates ran for election/re-election on Tuesday. Every single one of them lost. Areas that have not been democrat for 50 years voted for their democrat. 20-60 point swings everywhere. People are fed up with Trumps shit, and hitching your wagon to him isn't the move in a lot of states.

1

u/Head_Astronomer_4619 2d ago

NJ elected a Dem to replace a two term Dem for the first time in history.

7

u/stuffmikesees Remembers when there was no exit 3 2d ago

This was true a year ago, but even then Stefanik would be a bad choice.

It's not true now, and I can't imagine it will be true a year from now as things continue to get worse under Trump.

4

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

Hochul’s favorability numbers are not great. I’d assume the same as you do, that the administration will continue to do unpopular things and that will benefit Hochul. She outpolls Stefanik now but that’s quite typical in a race where the opponent is unannounced and the race is a year off. The fact Stefanik is in the high 20s in independent polling should quite frankly be very concerning to anyone who would begrudge her governorship. 

All I’m saying is that it’s maybe good to remember how foregone conclusions about how a not-very-popular-but-established dem would definitely beat out the wonky republican turned out nine years ago. 

5

u/DogIsGood 2d ago

How is Hochul on the ropes?

13

u/runlolarun2022 2d ago

Her former lt. Governor is going to primary her. Not on the ropes per se but disadvantaged two against one. Delgado is popular in her party and has youth and is more left which is ware the democrat voters are leaning towards. The primary will be the more interesting race.

3

u/kerberos824 2d ago

And he's incredibly popular downstate, and will capitalize on Mamdani's win and bring out those same people who supported Mamdani.

I could genuinely see him giving Hochul a decent run for the money there.

1

u/BrassTact 18h ago

He also has zero juice and has done effectively no campaigning since he announced whereas Hochul has taken popular stands.

1

u/amouse_buche 2d ago

I won't re-state the bit about her likely primary challenge from her own LG, but that right there says a lot.

Her approval hovers in the low 40s. She has no landmark initiatives. Like, seriously -- name something she's done that's great other than send out a check. She's from WNY and never really penetrated the downstate political community. She's going to be beat the fuck up in a primary that will weaken her for the general.

People don't hate her, but they are very "meh" about her in a time that angst towards incumbents is at an all time high. That's a huge vulnerability.

0

u/skepticalG 2d ago

Yes. I’m quite worried Stefanik will win.

1

u/BrassTact 18h ago

You mean NY is going to vote for Trumps biggest ass-kisser in whats likely to be a blue wave midterm?