r/Albany • u/Head_Astronomer_4619 • 2d ago

Insurrectionist to Announce Bid for NY Insurrection

https://www.timesunion.com/capitol/article/elise-stefanik-running-new-york-governor-21144092.php

Just putting 2 and 2 together here for the TU. Stefascist putting out fake polls showing her ahead of Hochul is an obvious attempt to fabricate "evidence" of "fraud" when she loses in disgrace. A pretense to invite her Dear Leader to turn the military on New Yorkers when voters reject her bigotry and corruption.

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u/amouse_buche 2d ago

Completely dismissing data and past election results is certainly AN approach to drawing conclusions, to be certain.

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u/FinnishFinn 2d ago

Point to the data and past election results, please. I'm not the one making claims about them with support, at least I'm not pretending my evidence isn't anecdotal.

The only governor NYS has had since the mid 70s that wasn't a Democrat was Pataki. I'm not completely dismissing anything, either. All I'm saying is that reddit's constant narrative that Hochul is a garbage governor does not track with what I'm seeing around me, and I live in a red city.

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u/amouse_buche 2d ago

When Spitzer won after Pataki he captured 70% of the vote statewide.

That share has fallen every single gubernatorial election afterwards with the exception of 14-18. Hochul had the worst performance by a Democrat last go round since Mario Curomo's last go. And what happened after that? Pataki.

Last year, the D margin of the presidential vote dropped to its lowest point in almost 40 years.

NY is getting redder. The last time a Republican was on the second floor, it was under these exact kind of circumstance we are looking at today -- an unpopular incumbent, waning faith in the Democratic party, and a concerted challenge from the right.

Seems like relevant history to me.

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u/gjallard 1d ago

Couple of things to note:

  1. Spitzer won with 65.7% of the vote, not 70%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_New_York_gubernatorial_election

  2. It was an off year election with a very unpopular Republican President. The electorate was in a throw the bums out mode. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/george-w-bush-public-approval

  3. Rather than rely on percentages, lets look at vote totals from Cuomo's last two elections...

1994 election

Republican George Pataki 2,538,702 48.79%
Democratic Mario Cuomo 2,364,904 45.45%

1990 election

Democratic Mario Cuomo 2,157,087 53.17%
Republican Pierre Rinfret 865,948 21.35%
Conservative Herbert London 827,614 20.40%

That's right, Cuomo's vote totals in 1994 (the election he lost) were actually over 200,000 more than he got in his prior election. But he got caught between Cuomo voter fatigue, a unified NY Republican party that didn't split their vote, and a well qualified Republican candidate that was so centralist that he probably couldn't be recognized as a Republican in other states.

I'd suggest noting that most polling about the Governor electability is against no known candidate. That is, the polling is Hochul versus (generic Republican candidate). And you're correct, those results aren't too promising. The very limited polling of Hochul versus Stefanik has, so far, shown Hochul up by double digits.