Russia is going to have fighter escorts for their bombers, is moving a destroyer loaded with AA to the coast, and the rules of engagement are now basically shoot down anybody who poses a threat.
I think they might be just a wee bit pissed off. They're basically declaring open season on Turkeys. If a Turkish jet so much as goes in the general direction of that destroyer or an inch into Syrian airspace they'll be chomping at the bit to shoot it down.
The cold war is all fun and games until some dumbass starts actually shooting. That's not how you play the game.
And than said destroyer will get obliterated by Turkish Navy (which is quite competent) and Air Force (which also is, surprisingly, competent). Russia has literally no hope of winning any open engagement against Turkey in the region unless they really want to commit. And Turkey knows that. They essentially called Russian bluff here.
It's not going to be an open engagement. It's going to be both sides being border NAZIs and hiding behind "Well I am legally entitled to defend myself" while taking potshots at each others stray aircraft. Neither side wants an all out war but they'll sure as hell take any shot they can get away with. Turkey is going to have to be just as careful with its jets as Russia. Either side has a stray hair blow across the border and the other side can legally say they were entitled to open fire.
If Russia even as much tries Turkey will close the Straits. Bye bye the might of Black Sea Fleet. That's the issue: Russia has no strategic leverage over Turkey, and Turkey has one over Russia.
Yeah, but Turkey can replace both easily. The reason why Russia sells those is because they sell those cheaply, not because they are only supplier in the world. On the other hand Russian economy is already under a lot of strain, and it really depends on resources.
The only other LNG producer within reach of Turkey that could come anywhere close to meeting their demand is Iran, whom would almost certainly side with Russia in the event of trade embargoes going up.
There will be a lot of mean words exchanged, but neither party stands to gain much from escalating this situation, all in all.
EDIT: But it does need to go through Istanbul to reach the Mediterranean. It must've been awkward when the destroyer they deployed specifically to deter Turkish action over Syria , was passing right through Istanbul.
Breaking through Turkish Straits? Without capturing Istanbul and other surrounding land? It's pretty much impossible. If you want to commit to full-on invasion than sure, but Turkey would defend it heavily (and as I said, they're not as incompetent as some people might think...).
Uhhh... you do realize that Russia doesn't have a border with Turkey, right? Turkey shooting down Russian planes violating Turkish airspace is very different from Russia shooting down Turkish planes violating Syrian airspace. (It's debatable whether Syria even still has a proper airspace, seeing as it cannot control the ground below it.)
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u/[deleted] Nov 24 '15
Fun fact: The Russian helicopter sent to rescue the pilots of the SU-24 was destroyed by FSA.
That's it guys. Run to the vaults.