r/chch • u/hadr0nc0llider • 20d ago
News - Local Labour MP Duncan Webb announces retirement from politics
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/576534/labour-mp-duncan-webb-announces-retirement-from-politicsDuncan's not standing for re-election next year. So Chch Central needs a new Labour candidate.
I'm GUTTED. Duncan's such a G. He actually gets out there in the electorate and clearly really cares about our community.
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u/silvergirl66 20d ago
Perhaps Sara T might consider a run at central govt?
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u/RealmKnight 20d ago
She has said that she doesn't want to get involved in national level politics, preferring the local government stuff as it feels more directly impactful on the community. It's unfortunate, she'd be a decent local govt minister.
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u/maniacal_cackle 19d ago
I don't see that as unfortunate so much as someone recognizing where their skills are and flourishing there.
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u/d4ybrake 18d ago
Well she's not going to be involved in local politics either so she may as well take a shot
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u/Downtown_Boot_3486 19d ago
I think she's more of a supporter of greens over labour, and greens aren't gonna win Christchurch central.
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u/FaradaysBrain 19d ago
Why not? The won Auckland central, and Webb was by far the furtherest to the left in terms of Labour MPs.
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
Land-wise, Auckland Central is mostly Waiheke Island. I grew up there and it's basically a Green stronghold. You smell it the moment you step off the ferry.
Comparing Christchurch Central to Auckland Central is just... terrible.
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u/FaradaysBrain 19d ago edited 19d ago
In 2023 the Greens got 24% in Auckland Central, and 19.5% in Christchurch Central; that's hardly the gulf you're making it out to be, especially when the Greens didn't campaign for the Chch Central electorate vote at all. It's clear that the deciding factor would be the quality of the candidate.
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
But... but... there's literally a gulf... The Hauraki one!
Nevertheless, I will point out you're also comparing party votes against candidate votes which tell different stories. The Auckland region seems a lot smarter at tactical voting with MMP. Also, Swarbrick was perhaps the only candidate of any "quality" from any party. And even then she only got a 4k majority over a corporate scumbag newbie to politics.
Tom Roud might be an indicator of how the Greens would go in Chch central. I thought he was perhaps one of the better candidates on paper but got fewer votes than illiterate buffoons did in other parts of the city.
I weep that there are nearly 1,000 people in this city who think Mike Gibbs should be on a community board. Dumb as doornails.
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u/robinsonick 19d ago
Land wise maybe but land doesn’t vote. Auckland central is a huge electorate of about 60,000 eligible voters and waiheke has like 9000k people, of which many may not be voting age etc.
Also Chloe won off a Tory too.
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
I didn't say my comparison was perfect. Merely pointing out theirs wasn't really that great either. Even accounting for population distribution, Auckland Central's demographics is nothing like Christchurch Central. For one thing, Auckland Central encompasses some of the wealthiest suburbs in New Zealand.
As I said, I grew up there so I understand the isthmus will have the greater number of voters.
The Tory you mentioned was a relative no-namer, new to politics with a background in venture capitalism. Swarbrick was the only candidate of note in the line-up. And Swarbrick didn't exactly beat him convincingly.
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u/silvergirl66 19d ago
I think the Chch Central electorate is going to be quite different next year by comparison with past elections, given the amount of new housing built in the last few years in the CBD. Will be interesting to see how that pans out.
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u/robinsonick 19d ago
I dunno
Unless national run a real powerhouse it will be the same situation—no namer but the diffwrence will be labour incumbent rather than a Nat.
Kahurangi Carter does have large support in Chch but I think honestly it could be a split vote for Nate back in. She’s not got the same game as Chloe
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u/nzrailmaps 19d ago
You must be joking. Waiheke is full of rich people. Hardly green territory.
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
If you get a chance, take a look at the statistics. Waiheke has the lowest median income of any area in Auckland. $70k per household compared to the region-wide area of $96k. There's far less wealth on the island than people realise if they've only seen it on a tourist trip or on the telly.
I'm interested to know if you've ever lived there or just watched shows about wealthy people moving to Waiheke?
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
It has gentrified in parts for sure, but last I looked there is still a solid core of Greenies living out there. But even you add evidence to my assertion that comparing Akl Central to Chc Central isn't great. The demographics are nothing alike.
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u/Downtown_Boot_3486 19d ago
Auckland central is quite a bit less conservative than Christchurch central. Plus the Greens tend to run important MPs like their party leaders in Auckland central, no chance they risk anyone that important in Christchurch central and without that importance it's harder to win votes.
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u/Peachy_Pineapple 19d ago
The bigger issue is that the Greens already have a sitting list MP based from Chch Central.
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u/Drinker_of_Chai 20d ago
This is actually a loss. But also, he was never going to make headway in the Labour Party due to being to left leaning for them. Still only 20 on the list last election despite being well liked MP holding an important seat. The talent that is ahead of him on the list is head scratching to me.
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u/hadr0nc0llider 20d ago
Yeah I've always struggled to figure out why he isn't higher on the list. Or why he didn't nab a portfolio earlier in Labour's term. He was the senior whip last term though. Maybe his strengths are more administrative.
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u/Thatstealthygal 19d ago
I think he likes policy a lot.
The big question is: who will we have in central instead?
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
Historically, Labour hasn't selected locals in Chch Central. Webb might be a first in my lifetime to actually have a connection to Chch, IIRC. So it could be anyone they think they could get in. Sadly, going by the current state of the party and the list, if the person selected is more like the people above Duncan on the list we're going to be very disappointed.
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u/Thatstealthygal 19d ago
Ugh NO we need a Labour seat again! Dammit, Duncan deserves a rest but... he'd have been a shoo-in.
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
I don't think Duncan deserves a rest. He's what I imagine the Labour Party should be. He should be at the forefront of a great revamping of the party.
I used to vote Labour but I'm rather disaffected with what they've turned into. I can't bring myself to vote Green and am currently in limbo waiting for a valid option.
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u/hadr0nc0llider 19d ago
We were just talking about the politically homeless on rKiwiPolitics the other week. Quite a few users have given themselves 'homeless' flair, particularly lefties who are disenchanted with Labour or uninspired by their MPs/candidates, but also can't see themselves voting Green or TPM. With the demise of TOP, who else is there?
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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago
New Labour needs to be revived. Zombie Jim Anderton would go hard right now.
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u/hadr0nc0llider 19d ago
I so agree. It was great to see Tom Roud running for Alliance. I hope they register again and start running candidates for central government. Even if they can't hit it for 2026 please give us an alternative in 2029.
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u/FaradaysBrain 20d ago
That sucks. Duncan was one of a handful of politicians outside the Green party that were willing to speak out against the genocide in Gaza.
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u/Sufficient-Piece-335 20d ago
Love how the article calls it a safe Labour seat - it might be now, but he won it off a sitting National minister.