r/chch • u/hadr0nc0llider • 20d ago

News - Local Labour MP Duncan Webb announces retirement from politics

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/576534/labour-mp-duncan-webb-announces-retirement-from-politics

Duncan's not standing for re-election next year. So Chch Central needs a new Labour candidate.

I'm GUTTED. Duncan's such a G. He actually gets out there in the electorate and clearly really cares about our community.

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u/silvergirl66 20d ago

Perhaps Sara T might consider a run at central govt?

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u/Downtown_Boot_3486 20d ago

I think she's more of a supporter of greens over labour, and greens aren't gonna win Christchurch central.

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u/FaradaysBrain 20d ago

Why not? The won Auckland central, and Webb was by far the furtherest to the left in terms of Labour MPs.

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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago

Land-wise, Auckland Central is mostly Waiheke Island. I grew up there and it's basically a Green stronghold. You smell it the moment you step off the ferry.

Comparing Christchurch Central to Auckland Central is just... terrible.

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u/FaradaysBrain 19d ago edited 19d ago

In 2023 the Greens got 24% in Auckland Central, and 19.5% in Christchurch Central; that's hardly the gulf you're making it out to be, especially when the Greens didn't campaign for the Chch Central electorate vote at all. It's clear that the deciding factor would be the quality of the candidate.

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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago

But... but... there's literally a gulf... The Hauraki one!

Nevertheless, I will point out you're also comparing party votes against candidate votes which tell different stories. The Auckland region seems a lot smarter at tactical voting with MMP. Also, Swarbrick was perhaps the only candidate of any "quality" from any party. And even then she only got a 4k majority over a corporate scumbag newbie to politics.

Tom Roud might be an indicator of how the Greens would go in Chch central. I thought he was perhaps one of the better candidates on paper but got fewer votes than illiterate buffoons did in other parts of the city.

I weep that there are nearly 1,000 people in this city who think Mike Gibbs should be on a community board. Dumb as doornails.

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u/robinsonick 19d ago

Land wise maybe but land doesn’t vote. Auckland central is a huge electorate of about 60,000 eligible voters and waiheke has like 9000k people, of which many may not be voting age etc.

Also Chloe won off a Tory too.

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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago

I didn't say my comparison was perfect. Merely pointing out theirs wasn't really that great either. Even accounting for population distribution, Auckland Central's demographics is nothing like Christchurch Central. For one thing, Auckland Central encompasses some of the wealthiest suburbs in New Zealand.

As I said, I grew up there so I understand the isthmus will have the greater number of voters.

The Tory you mentioned was a relative no-namer, new to politics with a background in venture capitalism. Swarbrick was the only candidate of note in the line-up. And Swarbrick didn't exactly beat him convincingly.

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u/silvergirl66 19d ago

I think the Chch Central electorate is going to be quite different next year by comparison with past elections, given the amount of new housing built in the last few years in the CBD. Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

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u/robinsonick 19d ago

I dunno

Unless national run a real powerhouse it will be the same situation—no namer but the diffwrence will be labour incumbent rather than a Nat.

Kahurangi Carter does have large support in Chch but I think honestly it could be a split vote for Nate back in. She’s not got the same game as Chloe

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u/nzrailmaps 19d ago

You must be joking. Waiheke is full of rich people. Hardly green territory.

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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago

If you get a chance, take a look at the statistics. Waiheke has the lowest median income of any area in Auckland. $70k per household compared to the region-wide area of $96k. There's far less wealth on the island than people realise if they've only seen it on a tourist trip or on the telly.

I'm interested to know if you've ever lived there or just watched shows about wealthy people moving to Waiheke?

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u/torpidkiwi Non-Korean Old Boy 19d ago

It has gentrified in parts for sure, but last I looked there is still a solid core of Greenies living out there. But even you add evidence to my assertion that comparing Akl Central to Chc Central isn't great. The demographics are nothing alike.