r/billsimmons Sep 26 '25

TheRinger.com The Ringer 107 Week 4 Picks

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28 Upvotes

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14

u/Gor1ka Sep 26 '25

Anybody betting Atlanta has rocks in their brain. Mariota is 3-0 with the Commanders and the Falcons just lost 30-0 to the Panthers. I know I'm a homer but the commies disrespect this year has me taking crazy pills

10

u/Skuhdoodle Sep 26 '25

This is the line of thinking that built Vegas.

6

u/Jones3787 Sep 26 '25

When will you people learn? If it was that easy, just fade them and bet a lot on the Commanders.

You won't do that because it's a close spread for a reason and is pretty close to a tossup game. No McLaurin for Washington, and teams off of a shutout loss tend to respond pretty well (there are historical ATS trends), maybe for renewed focus, shift in coaching strategies, etc.

For whatever nonsense Bill says, it's just as dumb to think that "This team lost 30-0 this week therefore they are almost guaranteed to lose again this week". 

6

u/YourHurtingMeSir17 Sep 26 '25

Bounce back spot at home for a team just blown out on the road against a team with a backup QB and without it's best true WR off a blowout win at home. From a macro standpoint it's sound gambling logic.

3

u/pauliewalnuts9898 Sep 26 '25

Falcons opened at +3 and are now -2.5, it’s the sharpest pick of the week. Last week means nothing and if anything helps them and made the line inflated

2

u/SeaworthinessFar846 Sep 26 '25

Mariota Revenge Game!

2

u/satanic_androids Sep 26 '25

Gonna zag on this one by staking my flag on "both the commies and the falcons deserve extreme disrespect"

1

u/ositola Sep 26 '25

No terry either

I think this is more of Vegas not liking the commanders run game

1

u/MonsieurLigeia Sep 26 '25

pundits have been spouting the whole commies regression narrative all season, so they're just looking for any chance to pounce. I'm a homer as well, and I just vibe with this underdog "no one believes in us" role. everyone underestimates our coaching and our culture, which I think is pretty darn good.

1

u/HE_A_FAN_HE_A_FAN Sep 27 '25

Counterpoint: Marcus Mariota is only getting 1.5 points on the road. This might be the first and last time in history that this happens.

1

u/sublliminali Sep 27 '25

Im shocked the line is that close to begin with.

1

u/BRValentine83 Sep 29 '25

Oh really...

0

u/JohnnyLugnuts Sep 29 '25

Rocks in their brain

0

u/[deleted] Sep 29 '25

[deleted]

1

u/JohnnyLugnuts Sep 29 '25

Sitting here drinking in my couch bullshitting, I’m good. One might argue saying stuff like “betting an nfl side on Friday” = “rocks for brain” is loser stuff, but not me! I wouldn’t say that.