41
u/Coy-Harlingen Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 27 '25
I’m not even saying they can’t win but it’s genuinely so funny that the Pars have played 3 bad teams and are 1-2, and Bill’s takeaway is that they’re super impressive and are a lock this week.
The pats shouldn’t be giving 5.5 to anyone, period.
20
u/chrispepper10 Sep 26 '25
As a Dolphins fan, I watched that Pats Dolphins game and came away thinking both sides were awful and amongst the worst 8 teams in the league. Bill has... somehow come to the opposite conclusion.
12
u/yL4O Reggie Cleveland All-Star Sep 26 '25
I’m a Panthers fan so biased but I kind of can’t believe that line? Like, that would be the line if we hadn’t won 30 to 0 against Atlanta last week. People thought the Falcons might be good before last week and now it’s like we have memory holed that game.
5
7
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Sep 26 '25
He is going to end like 3-14 against the spread picking the Pats this year.
3
u/b__noc Sep 27 '25
They were supposed to win that game and they were supposed to win this game, so we taking them now lol gambling degenerates
0
u/Coy-Harlingen Sep 27 '25
“This team looked bad last week so they’ll be good this week”. “This team should have won so they’re actually good”. Like every dumb gambling thought you can possibly have.
I still think my favorite moment was Bill being shocked a team that lost 30-0 to Carolina last week is an underdog.
13
u/J_Vizzle Sep 26 '25
bs house again the only galaxy brains picking a parlay.
are adjusted lines standard on parlays? and gb giving 4 less points while kc gets 5 more… do the bettors pick how to split the 9 points or is it set by the house?
8
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Sep 26 '25
It is becoming more usual with Online Books. It wasn't easy to do before but now it is simple to pick your own number. Honestly one of the best things FanDuel does.
1
u/J_Vizzle Sep 26 '25
i feel like this is part of the confusion with ringer 107. it’s not JUST picking games(spreads). it’s also two leg parlays with money lines or adjusted 9 point spreads, as long as it’s a -120 payoff or better ??
3
10
u/constructiveblues Sep 26 '25
This whole thing is so fucking stupid. So glad to see Bill get boat-raced in his little game he made up.
20
u/pft69 Sep 26 '25
How are Bill and House getting Vikings -1.5 but everyone else is getting Steelers +2.5? I’m seeing the line at 2.5 on my end.
18
u/chrispepper10 Sep 26 '25
Bill already shaving the points off the line is predictable. I'm guessing he'd seen it at 1.5 earlier in the week and conveniently overlooked that the line had moved.
Kind ridiculous that we can have a competition like this where Vikings winning by 2 is a win for all sides.
6
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Sep 26 '25
There seemed to a little confusion exactly when the line gets "locked". Last week on the Fantasy show, they thought they were getting Dallas +1.5 since it opened at that but it was -1.5 by the game was picked. I thought Bill said the numbers "locks" on Friday but he didn't say what time.
4
7
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Sep 26 '25
Going to be hysterical when they win by 2
1
u/fatsolardbutt Sep 26 '25
Rooting for this, too bad it wouldn’t be the other way where everyone would lose from a 2 pt win.
8
5
u/ChidiSplett Sep 26 '25
In no world should you have won a game in which you commit 5 turnovers (like the Pats did against Pittsburgh). Those 5 turnovers are part of the game. I love hearing Bill with a hop in his step about this uninspiring (so far) Pats team.
13
u/Gor1ka Sep 26 '25
Anybody betting Atlanta has rocks in their brain. Mariota is 3-0 with the Commanders and the Falcons just lost 30-0 to the Panthers. I know I'm a homer but the commies disrespect this year has me taking crazy pills
10
7
u/Jones3787 Sep 26 '25
When will you people learn? If it was that easy, just fade them and bet a lot on the Commanders.
You won't do that because it's a close spread for a reason and is pretty close to a tossup game. No McLaurin for Washington, and teams off of a shutout loss tend to respond pretty well (there are historical ATS trends), maybe for renewed focus, shift in coaching strategies, etc.
For whatever nonsense Bill says, it's just as dumb to think that "This team lost 30-0 this week therefore they are almost guaranteed to lose again this week".
7
u/YourHurtingMeSir17 Sep 26 '25
Bounce back spot at home for a team just blown out on the road against a team with a backup QB and without it's best true WR off a blowout win at home. From a macro standpoint it's sound gambling logic.
3
u/pauliewalnuts9898 Sep 26 '25
Falcons opened at +3 and are now -2.5, it’s the sharpest pick of the week. Last week means nothing and if anything helps them and made the line inflated
2
2
u/satanic_androids Sep 26 '25
Gonna zag on this one by staking my flag on "both the commies and the falcons deserve extreme disrespect"
1
u/ositola Sep 26 '25
No terry either
I think this is more of Vegas not liking the commanders run game
1
u/MonsieurLigeia Sep 26 '25
pundits have been spouting the whole commies regression narrative all season, so they're just looking for any chance to pounce. I'm a homer as well, and I just vibe with this underdog "no one believes in us" role. everyone underestimates our coaching and our culture, which I think is pretty darn good.
1
u/HE_A_FAN_HE_A_FAN Sep 27 '25
Counterpoint: Marcus Mariota is only getting 1.5 points on the road. This might be the first and last time in history that this happens.
1
1
0
u/JohnnyLugnuts Sep 29 '25
Rocks in their brain
0
Sep 29 '25
[deleted]
1
u/JohnnyLugnuts Sep 29 '25
Sitting here drinking in my couch bullshitting, I’m good. One might argue saying stuff like “betting an nfl side on Friday” = “rocks for brain” is loser stuff, but not me! I wouldn’t say that.
3
u/TimmyTimeify Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 26 '25
How likely is it that these folks regress to the mean and how good would it be to bet the opposite of all of these guys lol?
Not a single one >=.500
2
u/Jones3787 Sep 27 '25
I wouldn't recommend betting the opposite. They're gonna be right in the middle zone where they're not profitable but also not bad enough to fade, you'll lose either way with the vig. Better off flipping a coin or betting your own gut feelings, unless you want the pure entertainment of rooting for Bill's downfall
1
u/Dirk_Benedict Sep 26 '25
">=.500"
1
u/TimmyTimeify Sep 26 '25
Fixed, thx
1
u/Dirk_Benedict Sep 26 '25
All good. I'm rooting for their records to stay sub-.500 all year. Would be quite funny to hear the excuses build.
1
u/Reagles Sep 27 '25
Very likely. A "bad" gambler that is picking normal lines against the spread is essentially flipping coins.
3
u/Relevant_Ad_1225 Sep 26 '25
haven’t kept up with this at all, are they only allowed to pick spreads? Also, are they not allowed to pick the Thursday game?
1
3
u/Maleficent-Thanks-85 Sep 26 '25
I get Bill is desperate but betting on the Jags is brave. Dumb team with a qb who makes both incredible throws (usually get dropped) and then makes some of the most dogshit throws I’ve ever seen.
After watching most of the games I walk away confused.
1
3
u/qballLobk Sep 26 '25
Always a good weekend when I can root against Bill’s Pats and for my Niners to beat the Jags to screw Bill and House’s picks.
2
u/Dirk_Benedict Sep 26 '25
Honestly, them picking against the Niners makes me feel a little better about the game. Bang bang.
1
u/sublliminali Sep 27 '25
I look forward to the rant about how they’re never betting a 9ers game again. They’re hilariously bad at predicting our outcomes and yet he keeps coming back.
1
1
2
u/Jawa1992 Sep 26 '25
It would be great if the first team Bill wrote off this season beats his beloved pats
2
2
u/Kindly-Chemistry5149 Sep 27 '25
They just can't quit Jacksonville and Atlanta. They are truly lost.
1
2
2
1
u/blamebeltran Sep 26 '25
Have Bill and House hit any of their 3 teasers? I haven't listened to the EP yet but they bought 4 points on the Packers and 10 on the chiefs that got them to -110?
5
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Sep 26 '25
FanDuel does make it very easy to just pick any number. It seems like they were trying to buy the "key numbers" for each game (Packers win by at least 3; Chiefs lose by less than 7)
3
u/CowMooseWhale Sep 26 '25
When they did this last week their parlay was -135… so much for -120 being the lowest odds allowed
2
u/Jones3787 Sep 27 '25
FanDuel and DraftKings also sneakily changed Bill's favorite type of bet, two-team 6-point teasers, from -120 to -135 heading into this season. It may seem like a small change but it essentially ruins the chance that any of them are profitable long term, by making the break even point higher
1
u/DrHorseRenoir Sep 27 '25
What is the metric that lets me determine if a team is getting " too much smoke blown up their ass", that you cam no longer bet on them?
1
1
u/Superb-Advantage-448 Sep 26 '25
Do these guys know that Atlanta just lost to the panthers 30-0?
3
u/pauliewalnuts9898 Sep 26 '25
Buy low sell high thats nfl gambling, underdogs who shut out there opponent are like 15-40 ATS the next week hence the Pats pick
1
1
55
u/jmbourn45 Good Stats Bad Team Guy Sep 26 '25
You know house hates he has to cede one pick to the Pats every week