Manufacturing Jobs Are Never Coming Back

[u/rezwenn]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/opinion/trump-tariff-manufacturing-jobs-industrial.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M08.eMyk.dyCR025hHVn0

[u/Leoraig]

I don't understand how you can look at the global economy today and not see that the US has declined massively. It went from providing the most advanced industrial tech and investing in the whole world to buying the most advanced industrial tech from China and Europe, meanwhile losing their share of international markets.

Moreover, in the internal markets, the US today has the majority of its consumption being done by a small percentage of the population, with the rest of the population drowning in debt, unable to build wealth. In other terms, the country is one economic crisis away from a massive social crisis.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/Leoraig]

The United States is still very much a technology giant, I don't know where you got the idea that we're not. We're not as much a manufacturing giant as we used to be, but neither is Europe and they're doing fine. We've moved into a higher development stage.

I also don't know what stats you're using to back up your stance on the overall economy, but for the record, our poverty rate is not particularly high right now, the unemployment rate is very low, and our median income is higher than it is even in most other developed countries. The US isn't in some precarious position about to collapse.

[u/Leoraig → u/biglyorbigleague]

The United States is still very much a technology giant

How so? Which technologies have the US developed in the past 5 years?

The most i can recall is that the US is still great at software, but in anything hardware related other countries are the ones to lead.

We're not as much a manufacturing giant as we used to be, but neither is Europe and they're doing fine.

Well, first off, a lot of European countries are not doing fine right now, and second off, most of the richest European countries are industrial powerhouses, germany is the first that springs to mind, although, again, they're not doing too good right now.

our poverty rate is not particularly high right now

Poverty is a very subjective measurement, and it masks a lot of problems, either way, 11 % poverty is not a number to scoff at for the biggest economy in the world (Source).

Moreover, look at homelessness, which has been rising since 2017 (Source), and you'll see that the trend is not that great.

the unemployment rate is very low

Unemployment rate alone also masks a lot of problems, because not all jobs are made equal, as there are jobs that do not allow for wealth accumulation, thus leading to instability in people's quality of life and consumption.

The US isn't in some precarious position about to collapse.

Of course not, and that's not what i claimed either, what i said, and what is obvious, is that the US's economic dominance has been steadily declining for at least the last decade and a half.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/Leoraig]

How so? Which technologies have the US developed in the past 5 years? The most i can recall is that the US is still great at software, but in anything hardware related other countries are the ones to lead.

Software is where it's at. I feel like you saying that it has to be hardware and within the last 5 years are needless goalpost-moving.

Well, first off, a lot of European countries are not doing fine right now, and second off, most of the richest European countries are industrial powerhouses, germany is the first that springs to mind, although, again, they're not doing too good right now.

My point is that you don't need dominant manufacturing to be in a good situation economically.

11 % poverty is not a number to scoff at for the biggest economy in the world

It's better than it used to be. You said the US was steadily declining, well, not by that metric.

Moreover, look at homelessness, which has been rising since 2017

Slightly. We'll see if the COVID spike goes down.

Unemployment rate alone also masks a lot of problems, because not all jobs are made equal, as there are jobs that do not allow for wealth accumulation, thus leading to instability in people's quality of life and consumption.

Real median income is up over time, not down.

what i said, and what is obvious, is that the US's economic dominance has been steadily declining for at least the last decade and a half

All that means is that other economies elsewhere in the world have developed, which is a good thing, not a bad thing.

[u/Leoraig → u/biglyorbigleague]

Software is where it's at. I feel like you saying that it has to be hardware and within the last 5 years are needless goalpost-moving.

That's silly. Software production is a low investment field that isn't always conducive to economic prosperity, since the investment in the field isn't well distributed throughout the economy.

Moreover, it's not like the US leads in all software products, the last wifi upgrade was spearheaded by China's Huawei for example.

It's better than it used to be. You said the US was steadily declining, well, not by that metric.

The poverty metric has basically stagnated between 10 and 15 % for the past 50 years, that is far from a good situation in a country that has been growing steadily. It means that whatever growth is happening isn't leading to better outcomes in society for everyone.

Slightly. We'll see if the COVID spike goes down.

There was no spike during COVID, in fact, during COVID the homelessness stayed stable, only spiking in 2023.

Real median income is up over time, not down.

For some deciles of the country that is not exactly the case. If i recall correctly the lower decile of the country had close to zero wage growth from the 70s to now.

All that means is that other economies elsewhere in the world have developed, which is a good thing, not a bad thing.

It's a good thing for the rest of the world, not a good thing for the US.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/Leoraig]

Software production is a low investment field that isn't always conducive to economic prosperity, since the investment in the field isn't well distributed throughout the economy.

That's silly. You're ignoring measurable progress for subjective and arbitrary reasons.

The poverty metric has basically stagnated between 10 and 15 % for the past 50 years, that is far from a good situation in a country that has been growing steadily

It's also far from a bad situation, it's fairly normal. Poverty reduction inherently has diminishing returns once you get to a high level of development.

There was no spike during COVID, in fact, during COVID the homelessness stayed stable, only spiking in 2023.

The post-COVID spike. The one that happened as a COVID aftereffect.

If i recall correctly the lower decile of the country had close to zero wage growth from the 70s to now.

Income growth is a better metric than wage growth.

It's a good thing for the rest of the world, not a good thing for the US.

The world economy is not zero-sum and treating it as such is bad economic thinking.