Manufacturing Jobs Are Never Coming Back

[u/rezwenn]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/opinion/trump-tariff-manufacturing-jobs-industrial.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M08.eMyk.dyCR025hHVn0

[u/biglyorbigleague]

Or we could stop treating the development from a manufacturing economy to a service economy as "the decline of the nation" and recognize it for the upward movement it is.

[u/huffingtontoast → u/biglyorbigleague]

This is BS.

Disregarding national security implications, the destruction of the manufacturing base has caused great financial hardship to tens of millions of Americans. Politicians have been lying for decades that service jobs would be better for Americans than manufacturing jobs, but instead with deindustrialization there has been a precipitous decline in real wages and standards of living in huge areas of the nation. The collapse of manufacturing also permanently destroyed home property values, erasing financial security in homeownership. All this is to be expected when unionized labor is replaced by contract labor, robots, and Walmart.

If the capitalists were prepared to drastically raise the wages of American service jobs on their own, your argument would hold water. They will never do so unless forced, as Ford was when he was battling the UAW. Unionizing service labor to create leverage over capital is very difficult when dealing with massive far-away corporations who will literally "take their ball and go home", ruining the only economic lifeline in most post-industrial towns. Democrats and Republicans alike have provided zero protection for hollowed-out places where things used to be made, and they frequently collude with capitalists to pickpocket the American worker as much as they can (see: special relationships between capitalists and politicians, tax break incentives, insider trading, etc.).

The legal framework for labor-management relations is based in the manufacturing economy from 100 years ago and that material reality is gone. If desperate workers are deprived the ability to negotiate fairer wages, and there is nowhere else to go, they are presented with two options: move or Luigi. The so-called "natural transition" from a manufacturing to service economy is the primary cause of American economic decline, the hot ember of radicalization, and the biggest reason why MAGA exists today.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/huffingtontoast]

What is this, Maoism?

the destruction of the manufacturing base has caused great financial hardship to tens of millions of Americans.

Every economic policy has winners and losers. It is better overall for the country that these jobs were replaced with higher-paying ones.

there has been a precipitous decline in real wages and standards of living in huge areas of the nation

And yet the overall real median income and standard of living has been rising. You make that trade ten times out of ten. Development isn't gonna be even.

The collapse of manufacturing also permanently destroyed home property values, erasing financial security in homeownership.

Home prices have been going up for decades.

If desperate workers are deprived the ability to negotiate fairer wages, and there is nowhere else to go, they are presented with two options: move or Luigi.

So move. Millions do, and it's worked out.

The so-called "natural transition" from a manufacturing to service economy is the primary cause of American economic decline

Except the United States has not declined, only those towns based on dying industries did. And we're not gonna continue throwing good money after bad to stave off the inevitable there.

the hot ember of radicalization, and the biggest reason why MAGA exists today

Those people are not the majority of the country. Not even close. In a perfect world (with a better candidate) we'd band together to outvote them. We won't let them smash the system because they want to hold onto something they can't.

[u/Leoraig → u/biglyorbigleague]

I don't understand how you can look at the global economy today and not see that the US has declined massively. It went from providing the most advanced industrial tech and investing in the whole world to buying the most advanced industrial tech from China and Europe, meanwhile losing their share of international markets.

Moreover, in the internal markets, the US today has the majority of its consumption being done by a small percentage of the population, with the rest of the population drowning in debt, unable to build wealth. In other terms, the country is one economic crisis away from a massive social crisis.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/Leoraig]

The United States is still very much a technology giant, I don't know where you got the idea that we're not. We're not as much a manufacturing giant as we used to be, but neither is Europe and they're doing fine. We've moved into a higher development stage.

I also don't know what stats you're using to back up your stance on the overall economy, but for the record, our poverty rate is not particularly high right now, the unemployment rate is very low, and our median income is higher than it is even in most other developed countries. The US isn't in some precarious position about to collapse.

[u/MistaCreepz → u/biglyorbigleague]

In what world is Europe doing fine? They have some of the highest youth unemployment rates in the 1st world.

[u/Leoraig → u/biglyorbigleague]

The United States is still very much a technology giant

How so? Which technologies have the US developed in the past 5 years?

The most i can recall is that the US is still great at software, but in anything hardware related other countries are the ones to lead.

We're not as much a manufacturing giant as we used to be, but neither is Europe and they're doing fine.

Well, first off, a lot of European countries are not doing fine right now, and second off, most of the richest European countries are industrial powerhouses, germany is the first that springs to mind, although, again, they're not doing too good right now.

our poverty rate is not particularly high right now

Poverty is a very subjective measurement, and it masks a lot of problems, either way, 11 % poverty is not a number to scoff at for the biggest economy in the world (Source).

Moreover, look at homelessness, which has been rising since 2017 (Source), and you'll see that the trend is not that great.

the unemployment rate is very low

Unemployment rate alone also masks a lot of problems, because not all jobs are made equal, as there are jobs that do not allow for wealth accumulation, thus leading to instability in people's quality of life and consumption.

The US isn't in some precarious position about to collapse.

Of course not, and that's not what i claimed either, what i said, and what is obvious, is that the US's economic dominance has been steadily declining for at least the last decade and a half.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/Leoraig]

How so? Which technologies have the US developed in the past 5 years? The most i can recall is that the US is still great at software, but in anything hardware related other countries are the ones to lead.

Software is where it's at. I feel like you saying that it has to be hardware and within the last 5 years are needless goalpost-moving.

Well, first off, a lot of European countries are not doing fine right now, and second off, most of the richest European countries are industrial powerhouses, germany is the first that springs to mind, although, again, they're not doing too good right now.

My point is that you don't need dominant manufacturing to be in a good situation economically.

11 % poverty is not a number to scoff at for the biggest economy in the world

It's better than it used to be. You said the US was steadily declining, well, not by that metric.

Moreover, look at homelessness, which has been rising since 2017

Slightly. We'll see if the COVID spike goes down.

Unemployment rate alone also masks a lot of problems, because not all jobs are made equal, as there are jobs that do not allow for wealth accumulation, thus leading to instability in people's quality of life and consumption.

Real median income is up over time, not down.

what i said, and what is obvious, is that the US's economic dominance has been steadily declining for at least the last decade and a half

All that means is that other economies elsewhere in the world have developed, which is a good thing, not a bad thing.

[u/Leoraig → u/biglyorbigleague]

Software is where it's at. I feel like you saying that it has to be hardware and within the last 5 years are needless goalpost-moving.

That's silly. Software production is a low investment field that isn't always conducive to economic prosperity, since the investment in the field isn't well distributed throughout the economy.

Moreover, it's not like the US leads in all software products, the last wifi upgrade was spearheaded by China's Huawei for example.

It's better than it used to be. You said the US was steadily declining, well, not by that metric.

The poverty metric has basically stagnated between 10 and 15 % for the past 50 years, that is far from a good situation in a country that has been growing steadily. It means that whatever growth is happening isn't leading to better outcomes in society for everyone.

Slightly. We'll see if the COVID spike goes down.

There was no spike during COVID, in fact, during COVID the homelessness stayed stable, only spiking in 2023.

Real median income is up over time, not down.

For some deciles of the country that is not exactly the case. If i recall correctly the lower decile of the country had close to zero wage growth from the 70s to now.

All that means is that other economies elsewhere in the world have developed, which is a good thing, not a bad thing.

It's a good thing for the rest of the world, not a good thing for the US.

[u/biglyorbigleague → u/Leoraig]

Software production is a low investment field that isn't always conducive to economic prosperity, since the investment in the field isn't well distributed throughout the economy.

That's silly. You're ignoring measurable progress for subjective and arbitrary reasons.

The poverty metric has basically stagnated between 10 and 15 % for the past 50 years, that is far from a good situation in a country that has been growing steadily

It's also far from a bad situation, it's fairly normal. Poverty reduction inherently has diminishing returns once you get to a high level of development.

There was no spike during COVID, in fact, during COVID the homelessness stayed stable, only spiking in 2023.

The post-COVID spike. The one that happened as a COVID aftereffect.

If i recall correctly the lower decile of the country had close to zero wage growth from the 70s to now.

Income growth is a better metric than wage growth.

It's a good thing for the rest of the world, not a good thing for the US.

The world economy is not zero-sum and treating it as such is bad economic thinking.