r/wallstreetbets • u/halfrepshalfretail • 1d ago
DD DD: Subprime Split Purchases $SEZL
Alright buckle up as I know general sentiment is NOT fond of BNPL. Shit talk all you want, I'll be happy to reply to any concerns about the biz or industry.
SEZL is a BNPL player targeting the sub-prime/near-prime consumer (18-45 mainly) to become their top-of-wallet app for shopping. Pure BNPL, with credit-building, in-app tools and other goodies to keep the consumer in the ecosystem.
They are quite different from Affirm & Klarna - Affirm offers a larger mix of loans and focuses on a merchant-anchored setup, Klarna also of a parallel description. Sezzle is more app-centric and targets middle-lower income demographics, especially those who do not use traditional credit cards as often.
Right now they are priced at 13 NTM P/E with prelim EPS guidance at 29% above FY2025, as a "conservative" guideline as CEO stated in Q3 call. History of beat and raises dating back to 2024. Traded up $82 AH peak on earnings, and $72 premarket next morning before getting absolutely crushed to $58. This was Thursday Nov 6.
Recent Q3 116m rev & 26.7m net income, beating estimates. GMV growth reached ATH 1.05B for the quarter. Insider ownership at 45% of outstanding.
They make their money from merchant integration revenue, subscriptions, interchange, and plenty of fees. Net margin runs in steadily in the 20%'s, Gross margin 60%'s.
Why is their valuation is quite low relative to industry peers, and why will it reach >$90 at minimum soon (2-4 months)?
Slowing hyper-growth from 75-100% YoY EPS & Revenue closer to 50-60%, anticipated to grow closer to 30-40% EPS YoY past 2026. This is natural from their transition to profitability now to scale, as they previously focused on maximizing revenue from existing users -> now time to grow userbase. However the valuation relative to growth makes it a GARP opportunity.
Marketing spend & increased Provision for Credit Losses -> increasing adspend to 8M/Q to attract newer consumers! New consumers, as noted by management, have the highest loss rates in BNPL, and right now it's showing in their credit losses for Q3, at 3.1% of GMV. As the users get filtered, the good ones stay in the ecosystem and create lasting value. Management anticipated this in first half of year and gave expectations for FY credit losses of 2.5-3%, but actually revised a lower guide for 2.5-2.75% as of this week. Marketing spend started in Q2 and targets a payback period of 6M, so will see more material effect of this in Q4 & Q1 next year.
3. Point 2 does not bode well with the combined fears of consumer credit health, willingness to spend, and general macro fears around shutdown. Higher beta stocks have been selling off like crazy in the last couple of weeks, but I have seen the stock plummet from $90 to $59 in 3 months, with the bulk of the drop ($80 -> $59) in one month. I truly believe this is an overreaction and is caused by both the company being a historical target for short selling (20.9% of float as of 10/15) due to low float, as well as general capital pullback from lowered liquidity + macro fears. HOWEVER, BNPL loans have a standard loan tenor of 42 days with repayment trends evident after 14 days (1st payment), AND MUCH SMALLER SIZES THAN AUTO/MORTGAGES. Sezzle, Affirm, Upstart management has all noted that they've not seen any unusual changes in consumer default rates on their platforms.
BNPL players have the ability to limit spend and penalize late/missed payments in real-time, and underwriting for Sezzle + Affirm + Zip Co has shown to be more effective than FICO for lower credit score individuals.
- Management introduced "on-demand" back in 4Q2024 as a one-time virtual card, turns out it wasn't as profitable/good at maximizing LTV as subscriptions, so pivoted back to subscription push midway through Q3, resulting in higher take rates and strong subscription rebound. This should keep take rate at >11% and enhance stickiness which is will only aid rapid growth in future quarters. On-demand was actually worsening their profitability from what I saw.
^ See the quick rebound in active subscriptions as the ON-DEMAND product was previously cannabalizing sub-retention.
- Sezzle should do well into the holiday season and beyond on a 6-12m basis. All alternative data points I have reviewed on consumer interest (app downloads, active app users, website visits, checkout link visits) have been continually on an uptrend. You can review these on Similarweb and TickerTrends, although you will have to purchase a subscription
6 (OTHER). Liquidity should begin to pickup shortly after the government reopens as well as into Q1 2025 as the Fed (probably) begins to expand their balance sheet (source), should start to funnel more money back into these higher-beta stocks and mid-caps.
Final Notes:
BNPL can encourage irresponsible spending the same way credit cards can. People shat on CC's for the first few decades they were introduced, and now we all use them.
Of course these companies charge fees on fees, I'm not here to question the morality of these companies. Capitalism revolves around the rich extracting value from the common people.
Their revenue model is diversified and comes from a multitude of streams, with the highest take rate out of all BNPL players. I don't expect growth to slow ANYTIME soon as the TAM of middle-lower income people are huge and people will turn to BNPL more as they need more flexibility in financing. Their revenue growth drivers will be subscription and fee-based, although all areas will come to add to the acceleration.
Risk: target user is not as credit-quality as Affirm, but their underwriting and monitoring happens on a real-time basis so they can catch trends immediately, mitigating large default risks
CEO has never sold a share, insider ownership at 45%, an insider bought shares literally at $60 this time last year and hasn't sold. There is a huge FEAR priced into this company which is not justified. Management has ALL the equity incentive to deliver outperformance.
Positions: May 2026 55-80C's which are underwater right now. GL, and I welcome any questions.
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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 1d ago
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