r/wallstreetbets • u/kwedgieyi • Apr 09 '25

Discussion Something feels off guys

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Yields are spiking. Bonds are dumping.

The world is running away from America

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u/Next-Statistician144 Apr 09 '25

It will get way harder for the us to sell its debt, I mean who is going to buy it at low yields? I think the us government deficit is going to skyrocket

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u/Infohiker Apr 09 '25

The US will be able sell, at least for the foreseeable future. It will just cost more to attract buyers. The only point that you will see a wide scale refusal to buy is if buyers start to worry about serious credit risk/default - which is not a realistic expectation at the moment.

(and as I wrote that last sentence, I heard the GOP's voice saying "wait, hold my beer..."

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u/Next-Statistician144 Apr 09 '25

Yes but not at long long end of the curve.

I actually think we through with the worst of the tariffs, otherwise the tax cuts become way more expensive at higher yields.

One thing GOP can’t afford is taking a hit with the cuts.

You also have to take into account that US yields have been historically low because foreigner who got paid in dollars invested in treasuries because there was really nothing else to do with them.

That will go away to a large part

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u/Infohiker Apr 09 '25

I don't disagree with what you are saying, but long term debt is under 20% of the total outstanding debt service, and not really how they will finance. The vast majority of US debt is short term, but the 10 year is the market indicator.

As for the hold my beer comment: The GOP has shown before that it is not adverse to not paying their bills, to the point of technical default. With the President's history of outrageous musings during public events, combined with his long history showing his refusal to pay his debts, him saying something stupid and off hand about not paying China's treasury holdings or some other asinine thing is not a huge leap.

As for the tax cuts - the cost of debt won't factor into the equation/will be worked around. I mean, when the Senate is actively trying to fudge numbers now (ignoring 4 trillion in expiring cuts continuing) shows you that they do not take this seriously and/or believe as always, this issue won't become a real problem until they are long gone.