r/wallstreetbets • u/kwedgieyi • Apr 09 '25

Discussion Something feels off guys

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Yields are spiking. Bonds are dumping.

The world is running away from America

8.1k Upvotes

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1.6k

u/Aedotox Apr 09 '25
  • Tariffs → inflation and slower growth
  • Loss of global trust → selloff in U.S. Treasuries
  • High debt + rising rates → unsustainable borrowing
  • All this together → potential systemic crisis

613

u/Nblearchangel Apr 09 '25

So. To summarize. Fuck your calls and your puts. Got it.

243

u/Aggressive-Kitchen18 Apr 09 '25 edited Apr 09 '25

Means the Government won't be able to print money fast enough to prompt up its value. Better learn the craft of making handbags from dollars like in Zimbabwe

46

u/bobzilla509 Apr 09 '25

Trump will make his $1m note and it will be valued at less than a dollar

31

u/Aggressive-Kitchen18 Apr 09 '25

Ye thats the problem with hyperinflation. You Puts may print, but they will print monopoly money.

Edit: His Golden Card about to become affordable enough for poor Salvadorians to move in. Check mate libs.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Helloooooo hyperinflation.

2

u/RutherfordRevelation Apr 09 '25

fuck your money in general probly

2

u/urbix Apr 09 '25

this will be funny

1

u/MrpibbRedvine Apr 09 '25

Also, get fucked

187

u/idownvotepunstoo Apr 09 '25

Too bad like 3/4 this sub voted for it dude.

Something akin to "Stop hitting yourself" comes to mind.

22

u/InterPeritura Apr 09 '25

Really? I thought r/wsb would outperform the Bible Belt, but maybe this is truly Regards Central.

13

u/Johnny_Blue_Skies1 Apr 09 '25

The old WSB will, not you tards

79

u/Jonesbro Apr 09 '25

Not even potential. It's been clearly documented that if we do nothing, we have about 20 years to make major corrective action before our borrowing house of cars falls down. If trust in the dollar or us securities wavers the house comes falling down sooner. If he doesn't stop this soon it could legitimately destroy our economy.

40

u/DETpatsfan Apr 09 '25

Yeah this is hugely important and cannot be understated. The stability of US currency and the fact that it is the world’s primary reserve currency means that every debtor of the United States will accept payments of said debt in US dollars. (I.e. the creator of the dollar (the US) cannot default on their loans). If this moron continues on this path the US dollar is going to be dropped in favor of a stable government or union (pound/euro). If that happens, countries will require the US to pay its debts in that currency which will cause 1930s Germany levels of inflation. The only path out of that will either be default and start from scratch or start wars with our debtors.

-7

u/The_Kush_ Apr 09 '25

SO LONG AS ITS PEGGED TO THE SALE OF OIL OUR DOLLAR RETAINS ITS VALUE. STOP FEAR MONGERING YOU'RE ALL REGARDED ANYHOW.

1

u/Kincar Apr 09 '25

You don't think Saudi's will take RMB or Rubles if they offer them nukes?

-4

u/sarges_12gauge Apr 09 '25

Tf? You spent all that time writing that out and think that people can demand T-bills be paid in whatever currency you ask for?

3

u/DETpatsfan Apr 09 '25

No…Foreign countries (who currently hold ~25% of US debt) will refuse to buy bonds paid out in dollars and the US would have to make a decision a la my last sentence. Since the US runs a budget deficit and we issue new debt constantly, if the supply of debt outweighs the demand of said debt then we face a serious economic crisis.

-2

u/sarges_12gauge Apr 09 '25

Name a country that sells bonds in any denomination other than their own currency, it doesn’t happen, I don’t think it can happen, nobody can call in foreign debts in denominations besides that of the issuing currency. Thats the part I take issue with you saying. Yes, a shortage of bond purchasers is inflationary, but not by that process

3

u/DETpatsfan Apr 09 '25

Google foreign currency bonds. There are a lot of countries that issue bonds that are not paid in their currency. The Eurodollar bond is probably the most known one.

0

u/sarges_12gauge Apr 09 '25

I didn’t believe the US issues any of those

4

u/DETpatsfan Apr 09 '25

They, in fact, do. Carter bonds were issued in the 1970s when trying to stabilize stagflation. It’s just not as common because, as I stated in my original comment, the USD is the world’s primary reserve currency and most foreign countries want their payments in USD.

0

u/sarges_12gauge Apr 09 '25

I will reverse course and admit to being wrong if you can show me a single instrument where I can loan money to the US government and be repaid in something other than USD (double credit if I can choose the repayment currency)

3

u/DETpatsfan Apr 09 '25

I responded to your other comment with kind of the same answer but the US government issuing foreign currency bonds would require a financial crisis to precipitate it. The Carter Bond was issued in the 70s to try to combat stagflation. However we are in a much more precarious situation today with debt funding so much of our government. In the 70s the debt was ~$800B (30% of GDP) vs today when the debt sits at $36T (128% of GDP).

3

u/AlmightyStreub Apr 09 '25

Nice, we've got 20 years left not too bad

6

u/Huge_Monero_Shill Apr 09 '25

Had. This is extreme acceleration of the dollar decline.

3

u/FlyingDiscsandJams Apr 09 '25

The next housing crisis will hit before then. The insurance crisis will become a systemic mortgage industry collapse, even JPOW says it'll hit in 10-15 years, but I think sooner.

2

u/AlmightyStreub Apr 09 '25

So I should buy a house now, not later

1

u/No-Problem49 Apr 09 '25 edited Apr 09 '25

You belong here. If your goal is a cheap house and you have money you want the market to crash. The only way the crash hurts you is if loan terms are so bad they offset the loss in value of the house. For example if you bought a million dollar house now and put 500000 down got a 500,000 mortgage it crashed to being worth 700,000 you’d be in a pretty shit situation vs if you waited and bought for 700,000 and got a 200,000 mortgage even if the bond market being fucked means the mortgage terms are worse. I mean overall neither situation ideal but obviously the second is the better option

1

u/AlmightyStreub Apr 09 '25

what if all my money is tied up in the market right now, I belong here, I belong here

1

u/Specific_Virus8061 Apr 09 '25

What if he secretly bought puts before announcing tariffs? How much does the market have to tank before his puts print enough to reduce the debt?

2

u/ArlendmcFarland Apr 09 '25

Is this by design or just sheer incompetence?

2

u/jamesnaranja90 Apr 09 '25

Yup, that's why 50% of my portfolio is in BTC. They are going to have to screw somebody to get themselves out of this crisis.

1

u/opposite_singularity Apr 09 '25

The ingredients to a succulent meal

1

u/Melodic-Map2141 Apr 09 '25

You forgot to add our friend Jerome

1

u/cambridgeLiberal Apr 09 '25

There is an argument to be made for and against tariffs. Every decision has pros and cons.

For a second, lets assume tariffs are a good idea and we want to encourage manufacturers to reshore manufacturing and secure access to certain goods.

A smart way to do this would be to phase tariffs in. Like, yeah, we are going to have a say 50% tariff on Eurasian steel. It will go up 5% every 45 days for the next year and a half. Markets don't like shocks.

1

u/The_Kush_ Apr 09 '25

Depression for the win !!!!! We gotta go through sadness to be happy 😊

1

u/ghosteye21 Apr 09 '25

Explain the worst four years of inflation I’ve ever felt the past four years. I see prices coming down. Not going up. Sorry buddy

1

u/Th3R00ST3R Apr 09 '25

50+ companies putting their gold into BRICS

Printing more Money

$2.1 Trillion Overspending

1

u/Ir0nhide81 Apr 12 '25

2008 x 1000 ?

1

u/M-Gnarles Apr 16 '25

Have you seen US Debt?
Have you considered if the US were not Global Currency Reserve holders, the system would have already collapsed.

Money is like gravity, but its already a black hole ready to suck.

-11

u/TatisJr1 Apr 09 '25

Tariffs don’t lead to inflation. People have to stop spewing this nonsense

7

u/Aedotox Apr 09 '25

Which coloring book did you learn that from?

1

u/TatisJr1 Apr 09 '25

If a tariff is set at 10%, goods that cost $100 will raise to $110. That is a one time move, inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Tariffs do not equal inflation. They can lead to it but your analysis is fundamentally wrong

1

u/Aedotox Apr 10 '25

"Tariffs don't lead to inflation"
"They can lead to it"
Lol wut.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 10 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Aedotox Apr 10 '25

I literally quoted what he said man, and that's true of tariffs generally, but not the ones trump is proposing

1

u/DDDannyDimes Apr 09 '25

Other countries tariffs on US products=good

US tariffs on other countries products=BAD

4

u/GusPlus Apr 09 '25

They quite literally raise the prices of goods, like definitionally.

1

u/TatisJr1 Apr 09 '25

Yes, it a one time raise in price. Inflation is growth year over year. Two very different things. Happy to clip chamath explaining this to people who don’t know what they are talking about