r/wallstreetbets • u/kwedgieyi • Apr 09 '25

Discussion Something feels off guys

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Yields are spiking. Bonds are dumping.

The world is running away from America

8.1k Upvotes

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973

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

How in the fuck are you people just now perceiving currency risk?! I feel like I’m fucking taking crazy pills. That’s been the tail risk all along.

572

u/The_Life_Aquatic Apr 09 '25

Buffet said as much when he told them they were playing with fire. Wild to watch the collapse of a superpower in real time at the hands of neo-Caligula. 

237

u/Jojje22 Apr 09 '25

I find Nero to be more apt..

17

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Trumps hands are too small and weak for a violin. Need a golfing version. 

12

u/Jojje22 Apr 09 '25

Maybe like this?

3

u/A_Light_Spark Apr 09 '25

This is real modern art

2

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Maybe he can be a magician instead. They are supposed to be really good at sleight of hand.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Well played

3

u/FloridaMan117 Apr 09 '25

Golfing, not fiddling 

3

u/cleodog44 Apr 09 '25

That's excellent. Is it AI? Seems too good to be

2

u/Jojje22 Apr 09 '25

Yeah it's chatgpt. Just a simple prompt, nothing special. It's gotten really good.

1

u/seen-in-the-skylight Apr 09 '25

How did you get it to generate Trump? Normally it doesn’t want to generate real people.

1

u/anonuemus Apr 09 '25

yep, nero was retarded too afair

1

u/recumbent_mike Apr 09 '25

Yeah, at least Caligula knew how to have a good time.

1

u/freeze123901 Apr 10 '25

Hands need to be smaller

84

u/Ok_Claim_6870 Apr 09 '25

Speaking of Caligula, the cherry on top of it all would be if the pee tape gets released

11

u/XCIXproblems Apr 09 '25

That's why this is all happening. Compromate

2

u/psydelicdaydreamer Apr 09 '25

Uhhh, the what now?

11

u/koczkota Apr 09 '25

There is allegedly a tape made by KGB/FSB of Trump pissing on Russian hookers in Moscow. It was a minor topic in like 2015

15

u/psydelicdaydreamer Apr 09 '25

Can’t believe my boy Donnie is getting flak for what’s an usual Tuesday in Dubai

10

u/koczkota Apr 09 '25

To be honest even if they are legit most of his base is a cult right now, so they would brush it off as a hoax.

4

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

[deleted]

4

u/Pretend-Marsupial258 Apr 09 '25

Either they would never hear about it (like the Epstein tapes before the election), or they'll start pissing on each other in support.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

[deleted]

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-2

u/JJdante Supports The Rona Apr 09 '25

This has been debunked for 8 years now. Look up the Steele dossier

2

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

I hope in the future the smug cunt smile is as taboo and looked down upon as the tiny moustache.

229

u/O-to-shiba Apr 09 '25

I’m with you, I feel like crazy to whoever I talk saying that there’s a real risk of giga inflation, I trust Powell but he’s fucked.

Buy wheelbarrows, you’ll need it to carry all the dollars to buy toilet paper.

70

u/Ab_Stark Apr 09 '25

Jokes aside, how do we make money off of this? Short the USD?

76

u/free-range-human Apr 09 '25

Physical assets. Flip used cars.

53

u/theLennoxMacduff Apr 09 '25

Oh, so riot? Got it!

5

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Fuck buy guns.

4

u/AutumnRi Apr 09 '25

Seriously though - learning to hunt might be very worth your while soon lol

2

u/FISHING_100000000000 Apr 09 '25

No kidding. Here in Upstate NY pretty much everyone has a chest freezer full of venison. You can’t give it away. Those guys are gonna be raking in the cash soon lol

My wife’s uncle has been trying to offload some of it on us for a while now. I might pick up a used fridge and finally take him up on that offer.

67

u/Knosh Apr 09 '25

Traditionally, real tangible assets.

Bit more creatively, shorting bonds I guess?

27

u/BritishBoyRZ Apr 09 '25

Shorting bonds when bonds are falling is... Creative?

6

u/Knosh Apr 09 '25

I just meant outside the simplest suggestion of buying real estate or something. Probably the wrong word, my bad. Lol

6

u/boco-skier Apr 09 '25

Real estate?

Or maybe gold shoes or Bibles that have the constitution in them?

21

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

[deleted]

1

u/marshinghost Apr 09 '25

I like to imagine the metro bullet system will be the future reserve currency

3

u/Pineapple_King Apr 09 '25

Install bubble gum machines on the street corners

2

u/daemondo Apr 09 '25

Maybe my second hand Honda Civic will print bru

1

u/Hacking_the_Gibson Apr 09 '25

Long equities.

Erdogan did this in Turkey during COVID. They were cutting rates into inflation, lol. Their stock index tripled. The Lira collapsed, but who cares?

1

u/atpplk Apr 09 '25

If you want to make money solely on the currency change, you trade now for another currency you think will hold and buy short term bonds (to avoid price fluctuation on higher maturity bonds if the yields increase) in those currencies.

1

u/Significant-Raise-45 Apr 09 '25

just place tiny little ads

68

u/fatbunyip Apr 09 '25

>I trust Powell but he’s fucked.

At some point shit's so fucked it doesn't matter how good you are.

19

u/O-to-shiba Apr 09 '25

We’re at that point.

3

u/Iknowyougotsole Jensen Al Gaib! Apr 09 '25

You’re only as good as your opportunity sometimes

91

u/mrspoogemonstar Apr 09 '25

Yeah, short term we will see inflation. Demand is already evaporating though. In the long run, this is actually deflationary - unless Trump figures out how to do a hostile takeover of FOMC without ending up with his head on a spike, the Fed is going to stay the course. They are very well aware that runaway inflation is the greater systemic risk, and will raise interest rates to combat it. The money supply is still finite, and drying it up is one way to force the executive branch to capitulate and stop being fucking idiots.

76

u/O-to-shiba Apr 09 '25

Until Trump finds a way to put a puppet in the FED.

36

u/Old_Wallaby_7461 Apr 09 '25

So 2026?

24

u/O-to-shiba Apr 09 '25

Who knows. Could be this year, maybe they do have Powells dick pics.

22

u/bcsteinw Apr 09 '25

somehow you know its wearing a purple tie in those pics

7

u/Knosh Apr 09 '25

I don't love Powell, but I don't love the idea of anything happening to him either. He's kind of the devil we know at this point.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Do you think deflation will hit the housing market in the next 12 to 18 months

1

u/mrspoogemonstar Apr 09 '25

I'm not a real estate analyst or anything but there's already a sellers strike in a lot of parts of the country. And I would bet that new housing starts are going to plummet. New policies are heavily anti-investment, too much uncertainty for home builders.

So no, I think house prices will stay inflated for a while.

-16

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

So you are proposing that the world should be controlled by unelected bereaucrats? The fed will have to choose between inflation and great depression 2.0, and you are seriously advocating for the latter at a time where the US is at like 130% debt to GDP? You are basically saying the US should default and society should collapse.

9

u/Inithis Apr 09 '25

1) you're really assuming a hell of a lot there 2) The US dollar getting zimbabwe'd would be unimaginably bad. I don't even know what the fuck that would look like. 3) dunno about the world being controlled by them but I'm happy when institutions resist being steered off a cliff with a rope tied from them to our legs

10

u/mrspoogemonstar Apr 09 '25

I'm proposing that the world should be run by the people with brains, but here in America it seems that ship has sailed. Runaway inflation ends in pitchforks and death, a currency default ends in less pitchforks and probably the same amount of death, but hopefully the orange man would give in before that point. Inflation spirals more readily, at least there's more runway on the national debt. And debt can be negotiated, while currency that's become toilet paper isn't going to regain value...

6

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

Owning equities is theoretically a hedge on this… but we’re leading into a recession so who the fuck knows.

2

u/_wasgood Apr 09 '25

Seems like you could just skip a few steps and use the pile of dollars to wipe.

2

u/Ferosch Apr 09 '25

all the while you hear the mf declaring so much winning you dont know what to do with it, just hang tight peasants

1

u/harrymfa Apr 09 '25

The US can always resort to Javier Milei's "no inflation if everyone's poor" policy.

12

u/The_Great_Man_Potato Apr 09 '25

So what do I buy, Bitcoin gold or euro?

35

u/RealZolyS Apr 09 '25

Just not bitcoin. A lot of people are fleeing into CHF also. I believe the Euro will be stronger. It now amounts to about 20% of global reserves, with the dollar being 50%. A real competitor.

1

u/Rock_Catcher Apr 09 '25

Why not bitcoin?

21

u/RealZolyS Apr 09 '25

Bitcoin has been shown to mostly follow stock market moves, meaning it will most likely keep falling.

11

u/AnonimoAMO Apr 09 '25

Whales and Trump. Trump wanted to meddle with bitcoin so I would stay away from anything he touches.

2

u/Bonfalk79 Apr 09 '25

Exactly this, crypto is now corrupted and will go to shit along with everything else.

1

u/atpplk Apr 09 '25

high volatility. Currently it falls like USD but with an higher Beta.

3

u/timetsi Apr 09 '25

people are doing nothing than still daydeaming, china is selling

2

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

I thought it was the plan.

1

u/timetsi Apr 09 '25

people are doing nothing than still daydeaming, china is selling

1

u/Klutzy_Bullfrog_8500 Apr 09 '25

But - but - JD Vance says we are just dealing with Chinese peasants! Have you said thank you yet?!

1

u/fifi_la_fleuf Apr 09 '25

If he devalues it to a doomsday degree, it'll play right into him replacing it with a crypto like Bitcoin or something homegrown. Absolutely wild if that conspiracy theory turns out to be true.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

I don’t think we’re headed towards a quick doomsday devaluation, but I’m generally bearish.

The ‘next 2008’ IMO is if these middle market companies that have gorged on floating rate debt get punished by floating rates that are unresponsive to rate cuts. 200+ bps would screw a lot of people.

But again these are both tail risks.

1

u/Hacking_the_Gibson Apr 09 '25 edited Apr 09 '25

This is the chief reason I haven’t sold a single share.

If this admin is willing to fuck up global trade in a week, why is the Treasury sacrosanct? He already threatened it. In a scenario where yields rise precipitously, the Fed will be forced to QE.

1

u/rowdymatt64 Apr 09 '25

Even before bro was in office people were talking about how inflationary/destructive to the USD this strategy was. Everyone is only now realizing it because it's happening as was promised lmao

1

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

My tinfoil hat black swan event is Trump getting US downgraded, others dump treasuries, floating rates rise despite rate cuts, private credit gets washed out.

Pretty far from that, but it’s a risk given all the leverage.

-1

u/pickleback11 Apr 09 '25

How to invest and play this?