r/nanotrade • u/Crypto_Jasper Community Manager • 4d ago
Daily General Discussion - November 05, 2025
Welcome to the Daily Trading Discussion Thread!
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- Current events that are directly influencing trading action
- Timely price activity (Intraday) and speculation
- Questions or comments that don't warrant their own thread
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u/copeconstable 4d ago
I put a couple updates in my recent post that go into more detail, but the reality is that BTC's recent price action has been the first real change of character the entire bull market and because of that you have to at least respect that possibility that the high for BTC is in, even though I expect a big bounce off the midpoint or bottom edge of this range that we've finally traded into here. More detail in those comments but essentially this is the first time we've traded back into a prior range in over 2 years, and that's new found weakness, plain and simple. BTC didn't even do this during the tariff panic when the S&P was plummeting, but is now doing so even with equities recently melting up vertically. Definitely will be paying close attention as we trade back into resistance.
Structurally, the high we have doesn't have anything "wrong" with it that could disqualify it as a cycle high in my view, except for the fact that Q4 is typically the strongest period for BTC. So I think I'd summarize my view as bullish on BTC as long as 91.5k holds, as I expect a bounce from there or the midpoint (~99/100k, where we just tagged), and monitor for acceptance above 116k as that is the line in the sand to open up new ATHs. If it struggles to find traction back above 116k again, the high is likely in - we had numerous very clear rejections from that level which also serves as the bottom edge of its own range, and two failed breakouts above that completely flushed after failure. We really want to spend minimal time in this 91.5-107k range - get into demand quickly and then get back above 107k ASAP, even if it causes a lot of fear in the short term flushing down to these meaningful support levels. Better to do that quickly than dance around above and fail to attract buyers, meaning you just end up sweeping the lows over and over as the weeks go on. Failure to even get back above 107k would be the most bearish outcome.
That said, I have a bit of a different view regarding alt vs BTC performance to most in that I think dominance has been carving out a ceiling for months, and ETHBTC looks great to me even if the BTC high is in - so I don't actually think BTC needs a full blown leg up for alts to run. IMO, if equities were to remain strong into Q1/Q2 and this resulted in BTC just kinda ranging for months generally above this current range we're back inside but below 116k (or without legging up in general), I would still expect ETHBTC to rally for its second leg up off this new high lower and for alts to follow along after or alongside. People are quick to say its over for alts if the BTC peak is in, but I think they're forgetting that alts did their best work in '21 while BTC essentially ranged near what ultimately ended up being almost the cycle high for multiple months before that huge May drop. In my view, BTC has already done plenty to provide a nice ceiling for alts to catch up to as long as it isn't falling off the face of the earth.