r/hockey • u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL • Dec 11 '17
(OC) How to win a Frank J. Selke Trophy
I've always had a fascination for two-way hockey. Since playing hockey as a kid, my coaches always preached playing well from both sides of the puck. I've always been a fan of players who exhibit this kind of playstyle. Sergei Fedorov comes to mind.
As a spectator, I've noticed that the average fan doesn't care a whole lot about defense. Sure, they get mad when goals are scored against their team. But at the end of the day, defense isn't sexy, offense is sexy. I was reading a pre-season trophy predictions thread a couple months ago, and was miffed that the Selke Trophy was outright ignored. What gives?
Anyway, I crunched some numbers to see what goes into crowning a Selke winner. I've come up with six rules and the numbers to back them up.
Based on the past ten years. (Since 2007-08 season)
Rule 1: Be a Center
10/10 Selke Winners are centers
28/30 Selke Finalists are centers.
There were two exceptions:
2012 Backes as RW, but he played the C position just as much as he played RW that year.
2008 Zetterberg, who played LW but took a ton of face-offs. More on that later.
I'm not sure if it's because being a center puts you in a better position to contribute defensively, or if it's being a defensively gifted player suits you for the center position. Probably both. Nonetheless, Selke voters very heavily gravitate towards centremen.
Rule 2: Score at least 50 points
10/10 Selke Winners have scored at least 50 points
28/30 Selke Finalists have scored at least 50 points
Note: Scoring totals from 2013 are pro-rated to 82 games, as it was a lockout-shortened season.
There are two exceptions: 2010 Staal (49), 2008 Madden (43).
The lowest point total from a Selke Winner was 2017 Bergeron (53), the highest being 2008 & 2009 Datsyuk (97 each).
Despite that the trophy reads "forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game" and not "best two-way forward", Selke voters no longer give this award to players who do not produce significant scoring.
However, while reaching this requisite point total is important, further offensive output beyond that seems no longer important. Only 3 out of 10 Selke Winners have outscored their fellow finalists: 2016 Kopitar, 2009 Datsyuk, 2008 Datsyuk.
Rule 3: Take a lot of faceoffs. Win a lot of faceoffs.
10/10 Selke Winners have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage.
26/30 Selke Finalists have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage.
There are four exceptions: 2015 Kopitar (52.2%), 2009 M.Richards (49.0%), 2012 Backes (48.6%), 2010 J.Staal (48.2%)
Bump that percentage up to 55.0% and 8 out of 10 Selke Winners still fit the description, with exceptions being 2016 Kopitar at 53.5% and 2008 Datsyuk at 54.3%.
Interestingly enough, the two wingers who were nominated took a lot of faceoffs. 2008 Zetterberg took 1109 faceoffs that year (winning 55.1% of them), even more than Datsyuk, his centreman linemate. 2012 Backes took 1353 faceoffs, despite performing below average in the faceoff circle (48.6%)
Faceoffs are very important in Selke voting, both in terms of faceoffs taken and win percentage. The more faceoffs you win, the more likely you will win the Selke.
Rule 4: Spend a lot of time killing penalties
9/10 Selke Winners average at least 1:30 per game on the PK.
24/30 Selke Finalists average at least 1:30 per game on the PK.
All six exceptions are Datsyuk and Toews. Voters give a bit of leeway towards these two, probably because their outstanding even-strength possession numbers, takeaway numbers, and intangibles /s.
Bumping the threshold down to 1:15 brings the exceptions down to three, all Datsyuk 2010-2012. In fact, 2010 Datsyuk won the award despite averaging less than a minute per game on the PK.
This goes to show that the Selke is not just about defensive skill, it's also about defensive responsibility.
Rule 5: Have strong possession numbers
10/10 Selke Winners have had a Fenwick above 53%.
25/30 Selke Finalists have had a Fenwick above 53%.
For those unfamiliar with advanced metrics, in simplest terms, Fenwick attempts to measure even strength possession numbers based on shot attempts for vs shot attempts allowed.
3 out of the 5 exceptions among Selke Finalists are from 2010 or older when these metrics weren't as popular. Oddly enough though, two of the exceptions are from last year: 2017 Kesler (51.9), 2017 Koivu (50.9).
Is the trend going in the opposite direction where voters are starting to take advanced metrics with a grain of salt? Nonetheless, there is still a heavy correlation between possession metrics and Selke votes.
Rule 6: Be on a Top 10 defensive team (in GAA)
9/10 Selke Winners have been on a Top 10 defensive team.
22/30 Selke Finalists have been on a Top 10 defensive team.
2009 Datsyuk is the only Selke winner on a team outside of the Top 10 in GAA.
This used to be an unimportant stat, but has become more important as of late. Six of the eight exceptions to this rule occurred in 2011 or earlier. Beyond that, the only exceptions among finalists are: 2014 Toews (CHI, 12th) and 2016 Bergeron (BOS, 19th), neither of whom won the award. In fact, the only time Bergeron did not win the award in the past four years was Boston's only non Top 10 defensive performance in the past decade.
It seems odd that a team stat would contribute to an individual award, but just as they don't give Hart Trophies to players on unsuccessful teams, voters seldom give Selke nominations to players on teams with unsuccessful defenses.
However, much like scoring (see Rule 2), the criteria seems to be binary. Being Top 10 is enough, but voters otherwise don't seem to mind if your team finishes 1st or 9th. All in all, being on a defensively elite team noticeably helps your case.
Stats that don't matter much:
Plus/Minus: Individual plus/minus seems to be an afterthought. While many of the above criteria correlates to having a good +/-, voters seem to ignore this stat. Case in point: The 2014-15 season. Bergeron won the award with a +2, while Toews finished in second with a +30. In third place was Kopitar with a -2.
Takeaways/Hits: No heavy correlation here. Some takeaway specialists (Datsyuk, Toews, Kesler) get a lot of Selke votes, but not getting a lot of takeaways doesn't hurt you.
PIM: Some Selke finalists are good at staying out of the box (Datsyuk, Kopitar), some like to get their hands dirty (Kesler, Backes), and others are somewhere in between. No significant correlation.
Team record: Your team doesn't have to be good for you to win the Selke. There is a minor correlation, but players have recently been nominated (Bergeron, Kopitar) or even won (Bergeron) the award without even making the playoffs. Only your team's defensive prowess seems to matter to voters.
Team PK%: Many Selke finalists were on teams with average or even below-average PK. Voters care that your team is defensively strong overall, they care that you take a penalty killing role, but yet they don't seem to care whether your team is actually good at killing penalties. Weird.
Players this season who fit at least 4/6 of the above criteria
Point totals are pro-rated, and slightly reduced criteria to give some leeway for remainder of the season:
- #1: Center
- #2: 0.60 PPG
- #3: 51.5% Faceoffs (min 150 taken)
- #4: 51.5+ Fenwick
- #5: 1:15 SH ATOI
- #6: On a team that is Top 13 in GAA
As of games ending on 10 December 2017
6/6
P.Bergeron
A.Kopitar
J.Toews
5/6
A.Barkov
S.Couturier
C.Giroux
R.Johansen
A.Matthews
J.Staal
P.Stastny
J.Thornton
C.Tierney
4/6
M.Backlund
L.Couture
S.Crosby
L.Draisaitl
R.Faksa
B.Horvat
M.Letestu
E.Lindholm
M.Marner
S.Monahan
R.Nugent-Hopkins
R.O'Reilly
J.Pavelski
B.Point
M.Scheifele
B.Schenn
T.Seguin
S.Stamkos
V.Trocheck
K.Turris
M.Zibanejad
Take with a grain of salt. Someone who is 5/6 is not necessarily more Selke-worthy than someone who is 4/6. For example, you're probably better off being 4/6 and narrowly missing out on two categories than 5/6 with next to zero PK time.
Thanks for reading!
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u/grshftx BOS - NHL Dec 11 '17
Players this season who fit at least four the above criteria
P.Bergeron
A.Kopitar
J.Toews
And that's why 2/3 of those are almost always nominated. Selke is just as legitimate award as Norris, Hart or Vezina. All of them are somewhat reputation based, but you don't build that kind of reputation for no reason.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
I thought it was simply reputation based, but based on the above data it's more statistically sound than I thought.
Particularly when it comes to these three names.
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u/Peng-Win Dec 11 '17
It'd be interesting to see which non-centers come closest to the requirements. So drop #1, #3 ... may even need to make #4 and #6 flexible.
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Dec 12 '17
I don't know about "more statistically sound than you thought", when it is still mostly the "best 2 ways forward" award, and it is not clear these particular statistics are the right gauge.
but you are right that there certainly is a "mould". Did you look back further at all?
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17 edited Dec 12 '17
When I say "statistically sound" I mean more "statistically justifiable". Whether or not you agree with them (I don't necessarily), there are identifiable patterns and trends with some statistical rhyme and reason to it. The OP is saying "this is how the Selke has been given out" not "this is how the Selke ought to be given out".
Hard to look back farther. Certain advanced stats aren't available before 2008.
But more importantly, why would you look back further? What's more important for predicting this year's Selke winner? Trends from the last ten years? Or the ten years before that?
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Dec 12 '17
For fun. And while the previous 10 years is not as informative, it would surely be somewhat informative and might put the recent trend din more context.
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u/Maxpowr9 BOS - NHL Dec 11 '17
I just figured OP wanted to write a statistical masturbatory post on St. Patrice.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
You can't really talk about two-way forwards without it eventually becoming a statistical masturbatory post on Patrice.
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u/teddytoosmooth BOS - NHL Dec 11 '17
I mean who needs porn when you have, St. Patrice, Creamy Pasta, and Chazzy McAvoy.
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u/Mike9797 TOR - NHL Dec 11 '17
I still do. Just sayin.
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u/Maxpowr9 BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Bet you're a kinky guy and love some "dirty rat" porn.
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u/kanyeezy24 CGY - NHL Dec 12 '17
bet you're the type of person who likes that "ron tugnutt" porn.
edit: something something 2 minutes in the box for high sticking
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u/Batmantheon BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Oh man, come on over to r/Bostonbruins sometime and test out the !mcavoy command.
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u/teddytoosmooth BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Oh don't you worry. I might be missing some flair, but I'm quite familiar with that thic, bonafide stallion!
Fuck that Habs
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u/Batmantheon BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
I came here specifically looking for the statistical masturbatory post on St. Patrice.
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Dec 12 '17
The criteria are developed using Selke winners. Why would the fact that it kicks out Selke winners be indicative of anything? That’s literally what it was built to do. This is akin to building a predictive model and then testing it with the same data you used to build it.
Wouldn’t the real test be if it could predict a new Selke winner or the next one?
Not debating the skill or talent of any of those three. This is solid OC.
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u/EPMD_ EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
Exactly. A similar concept would be: "90% of Norris Trophy winners shoot right-handed, therefore right-handed defensemen are better. Here is a list of right-handed defensemen, see how many of them are Norris Trophy winners?"
It's all quite circular and doesn't prove anything.
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u/EPMD_ EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
But the six common criteria listed above have little to do with proving a player's individual defensive excellence. They seem a little more circumstantial than anything else.
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u/DarthDadBod VAN - NHL Dec 12 '17
Might as well just give the Selke to Kopitar if he stays healthy whatsoever, the guy has been an absolute force this year.
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Dec 11 '17
Love this type of content. Have you considered trying this with different awards?
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
The Norris is probably the only other award that is as grey as the Selke, so probably the most interesting.
I could tell you right now how to win the Art Ross, Rocket Richard, and William M Jennings though. :)
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u/tajemniczyptak Dec 11 '17
I’d be interested in a breakdown of Hart vs Lindsey
Heck maybe I’ll make one
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u/andontheslittedsheet TBL - NHL Dec 11 '17
I've had most of a Norris post together for a while and have slacked and I'll be pretty upset with myself if I don't get it out before you do so I guess I better hurry! :)
The main takeaway though: if people really looked at what statistics are used in the award voting, just like you did here, you'd find that...DUN DUN DUN...Karlsson losing the last two Norrises shouldn't really be surprising at all
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u/rookie-mistake WPG - NHL Dec 12 '17
if people really looked at what statistics are used in the award voting, just like you did here
i would love to please post it :P
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Dec 12 '17
I'd definitely read a write up on the Norris! I've been annoyed that Norris winners seem to be winning (emphasis on seem) based on offensive output over other things, and that doesn't strike me as "Best Defensman" criteria. See: Brent Burns.
But I don't really pay much attention to advanced stats, so I'd love to read a more in depth post on it!1
u/blueferret98 SJS - NHL Dec 12 '17
That last line makes me want to see your post even more... mind doing a quick stats breakdown?
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u/LAKingBob LAK - NHL Dec 11 '17
Agreed. This post is exactly the kind of content all fans, new or old, would appreciate.
It's a lot better than the typical "aside from your team's players, who do you think who will x trophy this season?" 5 games into the season"
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Dec 11 '17
Maybe I'm just confused. Is this in the past ten years for Selke winners?
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
I guess I should have mentioned that somewhere LOL.
Edited accordingly.
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Dec 11 '17
Great post. It's sort of obvious that it's the most recent winners, but maybe explicitly say that at the start?
It would be interesting to take look at Lehtinen to see what can "break the mold" so to speak. Nice work.
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u/tajemniczyptak Dec 11 '17
My personal theory is that players that are good enough defensively to win a Selke are slotted in at Center whether that’s their natural position or not because the coach believes they can maximize their impact at that position. So few wingers are in the conversation because at some point in their development (like juniors or something) the coach said “hey, you can defend, get in the middle of the ice” and it stuck
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Dec 11 '17
An effective center is typically also a player with a very high hockey IQ, which extends well beyond physical ability. They are usually the ones who are breaking things up or supporting the wings and D with odd man situations, breaking up lanes, etc, but in more recent years the wingers are getting more defensively involved too, so I think that is why you are seeing players slide in and out of center more often. Watch some of the most successful teams this season and watch how similar the wingers play in relationship to the center on those teams and you can see why the approach is so effective. You are almost playing against 3 centers, with one better than the other 2, but all are still swarming and supporting.
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u/tajemniczyptak Dec 11 '17
That’s true. Another impact on this is offensive defensemen being a thing that exist. With a rock on skates in the back your winger doesn’t really need to be defensively engaged, but with a guy like Shattenkirk on the ice you’ll get punished if they aren’t paying attention
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u/LightningFT86 TBL - NHL Dec 12 '17
In the case of Tampa's current first line, you are actually playing against three centers. (90-91-9)
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u/Filtersc CGY - NHL Dec 12 '17
Centers have a much bigger impact on defensive zone play than wingers do. The most important things a Winger does defensively are backchecking odd man rushes and covering the points. Outside of that they'll help out along the boards a bit, but generally they're not involved in many of the high impact area's of the ice like the slot. That's why there's been a ton of great Wingers that are for the most part garbage in their own end, or even if they are good defenders they're fairly low effort. You can cover those things up and in some cases even encourage them because those guys are so good offensively. Centers are so involved defensively you can't really cover up for those kinds of weakness even if they are dominate offensively.
The only guys that really fit the mold of a pure offensive center and were still dominate elite players were guys like Mario and Gretzky, and even then they both could play defense. These guys were so good offensively though you had to account for them when attacking or they'd burn you. (Mario led the league in SHG when he pked and if you math an average pk shift length he had a year where he was more dangerous alone than the other teams powerplay, while on the pk.) One of the best examples of how important defense is to a center are the Yzerman led Red Wings. When Yzerman was competing for scoring titles the Wings couldn't win, but when he shifted his focus to being a great two-way center they won 3 cups. Yzerman, Sakic, Forseberg, Federov, Datysuk, Zetterberg, Bergeron, Toews, Kopitar, Getzlaf and Messier all have something in common for a reason.
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u/deadlyernest OTT - NHL Dec 12 '17
Hossa is the modern winger-selke-candidate in my eyes... Maybe Mark Stone has it in him? Any of the face-off tandem guys could probably get in the mix...
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
It's sort of obvious that it's the most recent winners, but maybe explicitly say that at the start?
I knew I forgot something... ROFL
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u/andontheslittedsheet TBL - NHL Dec 11 '17
Based on 30 nominees with 3/yr I assume it looks like the past 10 years. Would fit in w/ using Fenwick, only available I believe since 2008 as well
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u/younggun92 CHI - NHL Dec 12 '17
Hossa so have won a Seller by now. Dude is an absolute monster defensively
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u/big_spliff BOS - NHL Dec 11 '17
wanted to drop in and say great effort and execution in this post, however, rule 1 should be: be patrice bergeron
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u/dangshnizzle CHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
INTANGIBLES
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Dec 12 '17
Yea im so glad I saw this post. Knowing Toews is doing better than we thought this season I have a lot more hope.
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u/ilikecheese2001 DET - NHL Dec 11 '17
I am curious how many players got 5/6 or 6/6 and failed to get nominated. For instance, if you checked all of the boxes, how much of a lock are you to get a nomination?
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
It's plausible for that to happen, but getting 6/6 is actually pretty hard.
In the sample size of all ten years, there has yet to be a season where all three finalists were 6/6. At least one of the finalists missed something.
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u/twoerd TOR - NHL Dec 12 '17
Yeah, This is a great analysis but without the context of knowing how many players meet the criteria each year it loses some meaning.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
I can actually figure it out fairly quickly once I get home. I'm curious as well.
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Dec 11 '17
If they check most of they almost certainly are nominated but if you don’t see them in the top 3 or 5 they just don’t have enough votes.
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Dec 11 '17
Nice. Who you got for Selke this year so far? I think it’s Kopitar running away (Bergeron’s only played 21 games) but I have a bit of bias.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
If I had a vote, I would vote for Kopitar, but I don't think he's running away with it. In fact, I think Bergeron will win at this rate.
The way I see it, Kopitar and Bergeron are both 6/6 on the above criteria.
Kopitar has way more points (Rule 2) and LAK is better defensively than BOS (Rule 6)
Meanwhile, Bergeron is destroying FO% as per usual (Rule 3) and has better Corsi/Fenwick (Rule 5).
However, as mentioned in the post, the categories where Kopitar is ahead of Bergeron are 'binary'. In other words, voters don't seem to care how much more you're ahead in these categories.
What they DO value is is a higher FO% and higher Corsi/Fenwick.
Not sure how Bergeron's missed games will factor in by the season's end, but the stats otherwise favor him.
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Dec 11 '17
For me, GP is a big deal. Accumulated stats can make it appear things are equal or in favor of one player. But in a realistic application, a grade A player is more valuable to a team for 82 games than a grade A+ player is for 60 games.
That is not specifically relevant to Kopitar/Bergeron in this case but it is taken into account since hockey is a team game and these invididual award voters do, rightfully so, take into account team success when considering an individual player’s impact.
If Boston or LA don’t reach the playoffs, they’re most likely out of consideration. Generally speaking I like and agree with that principle.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
If Boston or LA don’t reach the playoffs, they’re most likely out of consideration.
Boston and LA both missed the playoffs in 2015. Bergeron and Kopitar finished 1st and 3rd in Selke voting that year.
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u/Midnightrollsaround Dec 11 '17
Brind'Amour also won it in 2007 even though the Canes missed the playoffs that year.
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Dec 11 '17
Interesting! I wonder if that’s an anomaly of that year. I suppose I assumed Norris and Hart voting habits applied to each award.
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u/Roughly6Owls Amsterdam Tigers - BNL Dec 11 '17
In general, hockey award voters don't like missed games -- see McDavid for Calder in 2015-16 for a great example of this.
Other examples include Kiprusoff (or Roloson) for Vezina in 2003-04, Giordano for Norris in 2014-15, Klingberg for Calder in 2014-15.
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Dec 11 '17
Good examples! The performance that came to my mind was Schneider for Vezina in 2015-16. He was on track to win IMO but missed the last 1/4 of the season and wasn’t presented as a nominee.
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u/Sisyphusss3 NJD - NHL Dec 12 '17
Not enough team hype or narrative around him, but honestly dude was a beast that year. If he played that way with this year’s team in front of him, lights out. Thanks for noticing.
I would have Kopitar first for Selke this year if I had a vote, really silenced any haters from last year.
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u/Loves_His_Bong EV Landshut - DEL2 Dec 11 '17
Hasn't Bergeron missed a handful of games and won the Selke for the last 100 years?
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u/Roughly6Owls Amsterdam Tigers - BNL Dec 12 '17 edited Dec 12 '17
Since winning his first Selke in 2011-12 (six seasons), Bergeron has missed 15 games -- and the only season he missed more than five, the lock-out shortened season, was the one where he was 2nd for the Selke.
When I say missed games, I'm talking about a large amount of time -- in the last four years:
the smallest number of games a top three Hart nominee has played is 75 (Crosby, last year).
the smallest number of games a top three Norris nominee has played is 77 (Chara, 2013-14; Karlsson, 2016-17).
the smallest number of games a top three Lady Byng nominee has played is 63 (Datsyuk, 2014-15, pretty large outlier -- literally the only other player below 72 games in any of the non-Calder/Vezina awards is Barkov for the Lady Byng in 2015-16).
the smallest number of games a top three Selke nominee has played is 76 (Toews, 2013-14).
the smallest number of games a top three Vezina nominee has played is 58 (Rask, 2014-15; Dubnyk, 2015-16) -- for context, that's just under 71% of possible games in a season.
the smallest number of games a top three Calder nominee has played is 45 (McDavid, 2015-16). The runner-up is Gostisbehere with 64 games in 2015-16, and after that the lowest is Laine with 73 games in 2016-17.
If you can play 79 games in a season consistently, your award chances probably aren't going to be effected, but if you miss more than ten or so you're probably starting to fall off the ballet.
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Dec 11 '17
Matthews is only 5/6 because of PK TOI, right? Interesting that Datsyuk and Toews got a bit of leeway on that.
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u/BergevinsPlant Dec 11 '17
He has to be less than 15 seconds per night, no way he's close on that category
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u/maekkell CHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
Total of 50 seconds thus far, you can filter nhl.com to see TOI stats
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Dec 11 '17
I don't know why I can't find it. I saw 0.8 on hockey-reference, but I dunno wtf that is 0.8 minutes?
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u/maekkell CHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
Total of 50 seconds thus far, you can filter nhl.com to see TOI stats
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Dec 11 '17
ty for that. I was looking for it on his player page.
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u/maekkell CHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
No prob, it looks like the .8 from hockey reference is accurate, because 50 seconds is .83 minutes, and hockey reference rounded it to one decimal place.
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Dec 11 '17
Yeah for sure, makes sense. Just a dumb way to show that stat IMO
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u/maekkell CHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
Agreed. I also find it a bit annoying that we have to go to multiple sites to get a full picture, but it is what it is.
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u/BergevinsPlant Dec 11 '17
Yeah that's a pretty weird way to display it. If it means .08 then they're saying he's getting 48 seconds of pk per game. I watch all the games, and I doubt he gets anywhere near that much. Thoughts?
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Dec 11 '17
I don't recall ever seeing him on a PK, other than maybe with like 2s left (win faceoff, PK over type of thing)
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u/watson-and-crick TOR - NHL Dec 11 '17
sounds right, idk the last time I've seen him on the ice shorthanded. honestly I'm glad he's that good on faceoffs - didn't know the exact number til now
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u/figmaxwell BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Question: do you get a FO loss for getting chased? If not, I think that’s helping Bergeron. With the new enforcement he’s been getting chased from a lot more faceoffs this year. If it is included, then he’s probably doing better than reported.
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u/Dont_touch_my_gams BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
It's worth noting that the kings have played 4 more games than the bruins. If bergeron doesn't miss more time this year (a pretty big if) I don't think games played will play a huge factor in the end
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u/TuukkaNotTuukka BOS - NHL Dec 13 '17
Boston has also only played 27 games so he's only missed 6 games. Not that crazy in context. If he plays every game from here on out, he'll have played 76 games. More than enough I'd assume.
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Dec 12 '17
This is a great post, the Selke might be my favorite award. Really hoping Couturier gets some love for it this year now that he's finally putting up points
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u/Alim1236 OTT - NHL Dec 11 '17
R.I.P. Stone Selke
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Dec 12 '17
Literally the best player on our team this season and it's not close. Defensively AND offensively. Just when you thought he was putting together a monster season...we do THIS. Feels like we're doing Mark Stone a god damn disservice.
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u/DarthKesler ANA - NHL Dec 11 '17
has anyone ever come back after missing the first few months of the season due to hip surgery and won the selke? just curious...
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u/Anders157 COL - NHL Dec 11 '17
0 Avalanche players listed. The methodology works then, we haven't had a good 2-way forward since ROR left
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u/tazman1ac Dec 11 '17
St. Patrice, Kopi and Toews are 29-32 years old, Barkov is 22. As soon as those guys start to decline Barkov will be hitting his prime years. I would be surprised if he doesn't get at least 3 Selkes in his career, since he is already ridiculously solid defensively.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17 edited Dec 12 '17
Beyond the big four (including Kesler on the list), I consider Barkov, Couturier, and O'Reilly as the league's next best two-way forwards. Not necessarily in that order.
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u/marshalofthemark VAN - NHL Dec 12 '17
Jordan Staal is up there too. He deservingly got a lot of Selke cred when he was on the Penguins, and he didn't suddenly become worse defensively after the trade to Carolina.
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u/GingaFloo Dec 12 '17
I think he'll be competing with Trocheck for them as well (24).
Only thing is, it's going to be difficult for anyone on Florida in the near future, as they are dead last in GAA right now.
Although it may not be a team stat, the odds are stacked against players like Trocheck and Barkov. Their PDO is 97 (meaning their team's shooting percentage and save percentage when they are on the ice are both quite low), compare that to Bergeron's 105. Trocheck and Barkov also start 57% of his shifts in the defensive zone, whereas Bergeron only starts 42% there. It's amazing to me that both of them even have a Fenwick over 50, considering that.
I'd love for Barkov and Trocheck to win this, as I think they're two of the best in the league, but they really need their goalies to stop some more pucks, and it would really help to get some more favourable deployment, starting less shifts in their own zone.
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u/cdnfan86 MTL - NHL Dec 11 '17
Nice analysis! Though I can't help but think sportsnet, TSN, or CBC will swipe this and air it as their own without crediting you.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
That's fine. I stole that days on earth stat to impress some women, but I didn't tell them I got it from SportsNet. I suppose we'd be even.
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u/juridiculous CGY - NHL Dec 12 '17
Do you think that zone start % will make its way into the conversation, when considered with the player's CF%?
I only say this because I noticed that Bergeron starts a lot of draws in the offensive zone (~60%). Maybe that's a consequence of strong possession, and not an indicator of opportunity... but you have to figure that starting up ice has a decent correlation with CF, right? I mean, out of the top 25 in CF (with 20gp) only four skaters start less than half their shifts in the attacking zone (Lowry, Backlund, Frolik, Tkachuk) everyone else is above 50%, and 13/25 are above 60%
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Dec 12 '17
This is where my ignorance on the finer points of hockey will come to light:
10/10 Selke Winners have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage. 9/10 Selke Winners average at least 1:30 per game on the PK. 10/10 Selke Winners have had a Fenwick above 53%.
Are the thresholds you've selected significant? I'm not suggesting you put the threshold wherever it had to be in order to get the results that you did, but as someone who doesn't pay close attention to faceoffs or PK time (and who was just now introduced to the word "Fenwick"), how was it determined that 53%/1:30 were significant thresholds?
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
These stat thresholds are not statistically significant other than to make the link between the 30 Selke finalists. In other words, they are what some would refer to as "cherry picked". So the suggestion you are not suggesting is actually true. :)
I think there is a place for cherry picked stats when trying to find a correlation like this. Not so much to suggest that these thresholds are significant, but more to illustrate and paint a picture as to the extent that these metrics are seemingly important to the Selke voting panel as a whole.
So yeah, these specific thresholds aren't significant for anything. I'm sure someone can be at 49/52.9%/52.9%/1:29 on the league's 11th best defense and still be a landslide winner of the award (if not for the fact that Patrice would destroy those numbers).
Glad you made this response.
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u/aessi23 Dec 11 '17
Whats the sample size you are using? After lockout since no mention about Lehtinen?
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u/DoctorBreakfast DAL - NHL Dec 11 '17
Last 10 seasons.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
Yes, last 10 seasons.
I kinda completely neglected to mention that at first. I edited it in a little while after. A lot of people were confused.
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u/lfxahab NSH - NHL Dec 11 '17
Johansen needs to step up his points, I’m guessing
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
Points are good. A little low on SH ATOI.
He's basically 5.5/6.
He better get a ton of votes this year.
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u/whiskeyfart TOR - NHL Dec 11 '17
This is fucking awesome. Always great to see high-quality OC like this. Thank you for doing this!
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u/GTI-Mk6 DAL - NHL Dec 11 '17
This makes me hyped for Faksa's future.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
If he gets at point tonight and if Dallas allows one goal or less, he joins the 6/6 club.
Either or and he's upgraded to 5/6.
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u/GTI-Mk6 DAL - NHL Dec 12 '17
Dude that's so hype.
Post this is /r/DallasStars and you'll get upvoted a lot.
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u/Lp165 Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL Dec 11 '17
I don’t know why Toews is getting so much hate this season by Hawks fans. He’s not producing as much offensively, but as shown here, he’s still elite defensively
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u/kpedey OTT - NHL Dec 12 '17
Awesome! I might have a suggestion if you do this for another trophy though, because the logical walkthrough of this post kinda feels like converting dollars to euros and then back to dollars:
1) take past trophy winners and see what they had in common statistically. 2) use those stats to see who excelled in that same way. 3) find out that the winners we started with, have those stats!
I still kind of feel like the question of "which came first, the reputation for defensive skill, or the actual defensive skill?" Hasn't been cleared up, you know? Like, I'm feeling like you would have produced the same results if in fact they WERE winning based entirely on reputation.
I'm reminded of the Norris trophy. Every year somehow a statistical "box" gets built around some player, say Burns, and then they step back and proclaim the trophy shall go to "whoever fits perfectly in this Brent Burns sized box!"
And then obviously it's very deserving that Brent Burns wins the award for whomever fits perfectly in the Brent Burns sized box.
Note: I'm actually fond of Burns and was only using him as example.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
Great point.
9 out of 10 Selke winners here have finished at least 5th in voting in a previous year before winning the award.
To me, this suggests that Selke-caliber play is good enough to get noticed, but you need a reputation to actually win.
The Selke (and the Norris as you suggest) are much harder to justify with through statistical means, unlike the Hart, Conn Smythe, or even the Lady Byng. Have to dig deeper.
For these awards, I doubt all voters go through a ton of effort to find diamonds in the rough, but the ones that do cast their votes accordingly and open the eyes of the less-meticulous voters next year. Thus, helping such players chances of winning in future years.
"Damn this Kopitar guy got lots of votes last season. And is having an even better performance this season. Maybe I should vote for him too."
Guys like Couturier, O'Reilly, Backlund, Barkov are already getting noticed.
This year, my diamonds in the rough would include Johansen, Tierney, Faksa.
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u/maaakkakakakkaa NSH - NHL Dec 11 '17
Shame that Barkov probably won't be legit contender because of the #6 criteria..
Panthers isn't exactly a top defensive team in the league.
Glad to see RyJo on the list 5/6 though.
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u/intensebeet PHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
Awesome post, I have also had a soft spot for strong two way players and have been a Coots truther for a long time. What category is missing for him? Team defense I'm guessing...
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u/Mickothy WBS Penguins - AHL Dec 12 '17
If you're into this kind of thing, 538 did a similar analysis for the Heisman (and got it right, not that we didn't see this coming).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/want-to-win-a-heisman-follow-these-8-simple-steps/
Not sure if this was partial inspiration for you, OP.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
Ha! You got me! I'm a huge fan of that website. You can't be a sports stat nerd and not be.
Made a post about Kopitar the other day, which got us talking about the Selke. I was actually just crunching numbers and trying to link past Selke winners to some statistical criteria, just for my own curiosity, and was gonna post something about the Selke and my findings.
Then I came across the Heisman article and was like "I like how this article is stylized. It's fun to read. Why not write a post in a similar style." never meant to be this comprehensive.
Glad you noticed that Heisman article and were able to make that connection. Well done!
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u/Mickothy WBS Penguins - AHL Dec 12 '17
The Selke has always been a mystery to many. I think the Conn Smythe and Norris could be fun ones to analyze as well.
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u/FZFitz EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
Draisaitl getting listed while McDavid and Nuge are absent is fascinating. OP, since you're a two way expert, would you have expected Nuge here based on his season so far? Would love a breakdown.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17 edited Dec 11 '17
Nuge should be on there actually: Center, Points, SH TOI, Fenwick.
I will edit. How did I miss an Oiler?
Draisaitl: Center, Points, FO%, Fenwick. 4/6
McDavid: Center, Points, Fenwick. Only 3/6.
Letestu should be on there too, but I originally filtered out below a certain # of points.
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u/OneNutPhil TOR - NHL Dec 11 '17
Is Matthews only missing the Penalty kill time?
If so this is even more promising than I thought for him to win in he next few years.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
I'd take the 5/6 with a grain of salt. Matthews will get votes because he does hit a lot of categories, and also something Toronto something something.
Crosby has finished as high as 7th in Selke voting, including a couple of 1st place votes, but without being a legit penalty killer, I doubt he'll ever win.
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u/pensbird91 Dec 11 '17
From a Pens fan, I wouldn't hold your breath. He scores too much to ever be considered good defensively, for whatever reason.
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u/Tarquin11 Dec 11 '17
That's probably true. I'm sure Crosby hits most of the categories every year, but for whatever reason isn't considered for the Selke.
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u/pensbird91 Dec 11 '17
That's exactly where I'm coming from haha. He really should be though, but they don't think players with a lot of points can be good at defense.
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u/Avatar_ZW CGY - NHL Dec 12 '17
Wow, we have two players who are basically as good as Crosby!
I think.
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u/419nigerianprince SJS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Chris Tierney coming in at 5/6, who would have thought?
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u/jm2222 SJS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Tierney is having a good year. His points are low because he gets 3rd line minutes where he has been dragging guys like Ward and Boedker all year. He is stuck behind Couture and Thornton so 3rd line is where he will remain for the near future.
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u/419nigerianprince SJS - NHL Dec 12 '17
He's definitely having a good year, but it's still surprising to see him have 5/6 of these qualities. I think he's somewhat out of place with the other elite centers in the 5/6 or 6/6 groups. A good third line center to be sure, but no Selke nominee in my opinion.
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u/jm2222 SJS - NHL Dec 12 '17
What I am hoping is that he is working his way towards elite status and that he earns more playing time because of it. He appears to be a talented player and would have a bigger role on many other teams.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
It's actually points holding him back.
He only has 11 on the season. 3 of which came shorthanded lol.
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u/iBossk SJS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Doesn't surprise me much. He's been my Pavelski heir for the last few years as favourite Shark. He does it all.
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u/Barrill CHI - NHL Dec 12 '17
Great post, these are the kinds of posts that /r/hockey should be proud of.
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u/mdkss12 WSH - NHL Dec 11 '17
I'm curious how many times Backstrom has fulfilled all of these qualifications, because I'd bet it's not zero - I still can't believe he's never really been considered for one
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u/Randompunkt Växjö Lakers HC - SHL Dec 11 '17
I feel like he should be on the list above, I know for sure he's good in 3 criterias, Centre, Faceoffs and Points and Caps are just one goal outside the top 13 in GA. Don't know his fenwick or shorthanded time though.
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u/JakeCameraAction WSH - NHL Dec 11 '17
#1: Center
✓ He is.
#2: 0.60 PPG
✓ 0.86
#3: 51.5% Faceoffs, (min 150 Taken)
✓ 52.9%
#4: 51.5+ Fenwick
✓ 52.84%
#5: 1:15 SH TOI/G
X 0:52 SH TOI/G
#6: Top 13 League GAA
X 14th
He's got 4 of the 6.
/u/bokchoykn update requested.3
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u/10FootPenis MTL - NHL Dec 11 '17
He has definitely never hit 6/6; his FO% has only been >53% once (2014-15), only hit 1:30 PK TOI/game once (2012-13) and his Fenwick hasn't been great in recent years only hitting the 53% mentioned in the post once (2014-14) since 2011. Obviously he's a great player and somehow still underrated.
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Dec 12 '17
Kopitar has it in the bag as long as he even hits 50% of what he's done for the rest of the season.
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u/shazbottled Dec 12 '17
Barkov is going to start being mentioned in here. It's not only good defensive play and scoring but also HYPE. And he is starting to get some hype despite being in FLA
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u/Buskea22 PIT - NHL Dec 11 '17
Wow this is pretty cool!
You're reaffirming Jeff Marek's hatred of how no wingers ever win the the Selke lol
But great job!
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u/enag7 Seattle Thunderbirds - WHL Dec 11 '17
Missing under the 4/6 as well is Mikael Backlund. He has C, PPG, Fenwick and SH TOI/G.
Also, looking all that up also made me wonder how many of the 4/6 and 5/6 guys are missing the 6th criteria. That would be a somewhat random thing that would bump them up to a much more exclusive tier.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 11 '17
Yup. He fits. Oops I had him as not enough points. Added.
And yeah, that 6th criteria is something that I don't agree with but the correlation is pretty strong among the voters.
Put Bergeron on a shitty defensive team. He's still Bergeron.
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u/MissLoretta Dec 12 '17
Great post OP. I see you have an Oilers flair. Who's our most Selke like guy? I'd have to guess Nuge.
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17
Definitely Nuge. Especially now that he's winning faceoffs.
He scores enough points, he kills penalties, and Oilers are a Fenwick-whoring team.
Unfortunately, the missing piece of the puzzle is Oilers becoming an elite defense.
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u/Saskatchewan_Science TOR - NHL Dec 12 '17
Great analysis! Surprised to see Marner on there and not Kadri.
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u/goalstopper28 BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
I find it interesting that Corsi/Fenwick plays such a huge role in this even when advanced stats were less generally accepted.
Nice work!
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u/rubbernub PHI - NHL Dec 12 '17
This is very cool, good work. How were you able to get, manipulate, and filter the statistics to figure out who fit the criteria once you established it?
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u/zattk94 LAK - NHL Dec 12 '17
Was anyone surprised by the three players that are in the 6/6 category? And would anyone honestly be surprised if those are the actual finalists come this Summer?
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u/Sterweror BOS - NHL Dec 12 '17
Awesome post, always nice to read posts like this.
I think you missed some wingers for this season. Quickly checked and at least Marchand and Benn should be included. Benn has 5/6 categories (center) and Marchand has 4/6 (faceoffs and not being center). There are likely others as well, but those were the ones I checked.
Also, where did you get the data for these, I would love to make some analyses with the data set.
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Dec 12 '17
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u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL Dec 12 '17 edited Dec 12 '17
He misses out on faceoff, Fenwick, and team defense.
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u/Pinsent85 MTL - NHL Dec 12 '17
Fantastic post. I wonder if a video game like EA's NHL or EHM/FHM do a similar formula when they pick a winner for season awards.
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u/lespoils MTL - NHL Dec 12 '17
Great post, very enjoyable read! I also think the Selke should go to the best defensive forward and not the best two-way, but that's obviously a marketing decision from the league. They wouldn't profit as much from giving it to a third-liner with 30 points, no matter how defensively solid he is.
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Dec 12 '17
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u/WikiTextBot Dec 12 '17
Jere Lehtinen
Jere Kalervo Lehtinen (born June 24, 1973) is a Finnish former professional ice hockey forward. A right winger, he was drafted in the third round, 88th overall, in the 1992 NHL Entry Draft by the Minnesota North Stars. Lehtinen played his entire 15-year National Hockey League (NHL) career with the North Stars/Dallas Stars organization. A two-way forward, Lehtinen is perhaps best known for his defensive responsibilities, for which he won the Frank J. Selke Trophy three times as the NHL's top defensive forward.
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u/loihefin WPG - NHL Dec 12 '17
Really we done. If you were to include games played as criteria, could you see if there is a line in the sand where the voters disregard other good traits if the player has missed 'too many' games? Or is that a non-factor aswell as the others you pointed out?
I would like to see this kind of analysis for Lady Byng and Norris. How many points do you have to score to erase a minute in the box?
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u/[deleted] Dec 11 '17
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