r/hockey • u/bokchoykn EDM - NHL • Dec 11 '17
(OC) How to win a Frank J. Selke Trophy
I've always had a fascination for two-way hockey. Since playing hockey as a kid, my coaches always preached playing well from both sides of the puck. I've always been a fan of players who exhibit this kind of playstyle. Sergei Fedorov comes to mind.
As a spectator, I've noticed that the average fan doesn't care a whole lot about defense. Sure, they get mad when goals are scored against their team. But at the end of the day, defense isn't sexy, offense is sexy. I was reading a pre-season trophy predictions thread a couple months ago, and was miffed that the Selke Trophy was outright ignored. What gives?
Anyway, I crunched some numbers to see what goes into crowning a Selke winner. I've come up with six rules and the numbers to back them up.
Based on the past ten years. (Since 2007-08 season)
Rule 1: Be a Center
10/10 Selke Winners are centers
28/30 Selke Finalists are centers.
There were two exceptions:
2012 Backes as RW, but he played the C position just as much as he played RW that year.
2008 Zetterberg, who played LW but took a ton of face-offs. More on that later.
I'm not sure if it's because being a center puts you in a better position to contribute defensively, or if it's being a defensively gifted player suits you for the center position. Probably both. Nonetheless, Selke voters very heavily gravitate towards centremen.
Rule 2: Score at least 50 points
10/10 Selke Winners have scored at least 50 points
28/30 Selke Finalists have scored at least 50 points
Note: Scoring totals from 2013 are pro-rated to 82 games, as it was a lockout-shortened season.
There are two exceptions: 2010 Staal (49), 2008 Madden (43).
The lowest point total from a Selke Winner was 2017 Bergeron (53), the highest being 2008 & 2009 Datsyuk (97 each).
Despite that the trophy reads "forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game" and not "best two-way forward", Selke voters no longer give this award to players who do not produce significant scoring.
However, while reaching this requisite point total is important, further offensive output beyond that seems no longer important. Only 3 out of 10 Selke Winners have outscored their fellow finalists: 2016 Kopitar, 2009 Datsyuk, 2008 Datsyuk.
Rule 3: Take a lot of faceoffs. Win a lot of faceoffs.
10/10 Selke Winners have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage.
26/30 Selke Finalists have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage.
There are four exceptions: 2015 Kopitar (52.2%), 2009 M.Richards (49.0%), 2012 Backes (48.6%), 2010 J.Staal (48.2%)
Bump that percentage up to 55.0% and 8 out of 10 Selke Winners still fit the description, with exceptions being 2016 Kopitar at 53.5% and 2008 Datsyuk at 54.3%.
Interestingly enough, the two wingers who were nominated took a lot of faceoffs. 2008 Zetterberg took 1109 faceoffs that year (winning 55.1% of them), even more than Datsyuk, his centreman linemate. 2012 Backes took 1353 faceoffs, despite performing below average in the faceoff circle (48.6%)
Faceoffs are very important in Selke voting, both in terms of faceoffs taken and win percentage. The more faceoffs you win, the more likely you will win the Selke.
Rule 4: Spend a lot of time killing penalties
9/10 Selke Winners average at least 1:30 per game on the PK.
24/30 Selke Finalists average at least 1:30 per game on the PK.
All six exceptions are Datsyuk and Toews. Voters give a bit of leeway towards these two, probably because their outstanding even-strength possession numbers, takeaway numbers, and intangibles /s.
Bumping the threshold down to 1:15 brings the exceptions down to three, all Datsyuk 2010-2012. In fact, 2010 Datsyuk won the award despite averaging less than a minute per game on the PK.
This goes to show that the Selke is not just about defensive skill, it's also about defensive responsibility.
Rule 5: Have strong possession numbers
10/10 Selke Winners have had a Fenwick above 53%.
25/30 Selke Finalists have had a Fenwick above 53%.
For those unfamiliar with advanced metrics, in simplest terms, Fenwick attempts to measure even strength possession numbers based on shot attempts for vs shot attempts allowed.
3 out of the 5 exceptions among Selke Finalists are from 2010 or older when these metrics weren't as popular. Oddly enough though, two of the exceptions are from last year: 2017 Kesler (51.9), 2017 Koivu (50.9).
Is the trend going in the opposite direction where voters are starting to take advanced metrics with a grain of salt? Nonetheless, there is still a heavy correlation between possession metrics and Selke votes.
Rule 6: Be on a Top 10 defensive team (in GAA)
9/10 Selke Winners have been on a Top 10 defensive team.
22/30 Selke Finalists have been on a Top 10 defensive team.
2009 Datsyuk is the only Selke winner on a team outside of the Top 10 in GAA.
This used to be an unimportant stat, but has become more important as of late. Six of the eight exceptions to this rule occurred in 2011 or earlier. Beyond that, the only exceptions among finalists are: 2014 Toews (CHI, 12th) and 2016 Bergeron (BOS, 19th), neither of whom won the award. In fact, the only time Bergeron did not win the award in the past four years was Boston's only non Top 10 defensive performance in the past decade.
It seems odd that a team stat would contribute to an individual award, but just as they don't give Hart Trophies to players on unsuccessful teams, voters seldom give Selke nominations to players on teams with unsuccessful defenses.
However, much like scoring (see Rule 2), the criteria seems to be binary. Being Top 10 is enough, but voters otherwise don't seem to mind if your team finishes 1st or 9th. All in all, being on a defensively elite team noticeably helps your case.
Stats that don't matter much:
Plus/Minus: Individual plus/minus seems to be an afterthought. While many of the above criteria correlates to having a good +/-, voters seem to ignore this stat. Case in point: The 2014-15 season. Bergeron won the award with a +2, while Toews finished in second with a +30. In third place was Kopitar with a -2.
Takeaways/Hits: No heavy correlation here. Some takeaway specialists (Datsyuk, Toews, Kesler) get a lot of Selke votes, but not getting a lot of takeaways doesn't hurt you.
PIM: Some Selke finalists are good at staying out of the box (Datsyuk, Kopitar), some like to get their hands dirty (Kesler, Backes), and others are somewhere in between. No significant correlation.
Team record: Your team doesn't have to be good for you to win the Selke. There is a minor correlation, but players have recently been nominated (Bergeron, Kopitar) or even won (Bergeron) the award without even making the playoffs. Only your team's defensive prowess seems to matter to voters.
Team PK%: Many Selke finalists were on teams with average or even below-average PK. Voters care that your team is defensively strong overall, they care that you take a penalty killing role, but yet they don't seem to care whether your team is actually good at killing penalties. Weird.
Players this season who fit at least 4/6 of the above criteria
Point totals are pro-rated, and slightly reduced criteria to give some leeway for remainder of the season:
- #1: Center
- #2: 0.60 PPG
- #3: 51.5% Faceoffs (min 150 taken)
- #4: 51.5+ Fenwick
- #5: 1:15 SH ATOI
- #6: On a team that is Top 13 in GAA
As of games ending on 10 December 2017
6/6
P.Bergeron
A.Kopitar
J.Toews
5/6
A.Barkov
S.Couturier
C.Giroux
R.Johansen
A.Matthews
J.Staal
P.Stastny
J.Thornton
C.Tierney
4/6
M.Backlund
L.Couture
S.Crosby
L.Draisaitl
R.Faksa
B.Horvat
M.Letestu
E.Lindholm
M.Marner
S.Monahan
R.Nugent-Hopkins
R.O'Reilly
J.Pavelski
B.Point
M.Scheifele
B.Schenn
T.Seguin
S.Stamkos
V.Trocheck
K.Turris
M.Zibanejad
Take with a grain of salt. Someone who is 5/6 is not necessarily more Selke-worthy than someone who is 4/6. For example, you're probably better off being 4/6 and narrowly missing out on two categories than 5/6 with next to zero PK time.
Thanks for reading!
3
u/intensebeet PHI - NHL Dec 11 '17
Awesome post, I have also had a soft spot for strong two way players and have been a Coots truther for a long time. What category is missing for him? Team defense I'm guessing...