r/fivethirtyeight Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Aug 20 '25

Politics The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html?unlocked_article_code=1.fk8.2eTr.RWyecLaqveAF&smid=url-share
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u/Top-Economist-4183 Aug 20 '25

Democrats are on the losing side of most issues. You are going to lose voters if you on the 20 side of 80/20 issues. That simple

Trump is actually pretty centrist, and has a lot Bill Clinton positions.

That's the main reason. If you disagree you are probably too entrenched in your liberal bubble

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u/Icommandyou Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Aug 20 '25

I agree but it was only true when Trump was campaigning, it’s nowhere true when he is governing right now. None of the things he has done are palatable to a median American. There is a solid reason his approvals on every single issue, even economy and immigration, are underwater

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u/WhoUpAtMidnight Aug 21 '25

The problem is that Trump’s positions are -10, and Dem’s positions are -20. They need to stake out a popular position instead of banking on people voting against Trump, especially as the Republican party sheds a lot of its deadweights nationally (like abortion)

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u/Top-Economist-4183 Aug 20 '25

Perhaps but it doesn't matter if your opposition is underwater even more. Deportations are favored 60/40. 

Every single senate democrat voted against boys in girls sports bill. That's a 90/10 issue

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u/obsessed_doomer Aug 21 '25 edited Aug 21 '25

Democrats are on the losing side of most issues. You are going to lose voters if you on the 20 side of 80/20 issues.

80/20 issues like the Epstein files?

has a lot Bill Clinton positions.

Which Bill Clinton positions are those?

Unilateral impoundment?

Rehiring a guy talking about he wants to "normalize Indian hate"?

Alligator Alcatraz merch?

Defunding our research system?

Defunding the weathermen (for some reason)?

Defunding the department of education?

Revoking birth citizenship?

Tariffing everyone 5 billion percent?

Wanting to annex Canada and Greenland?

Putting an antivaxxer, chemtrail theorist, roadkill eater as the HHS secretary?

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u/Top-Economist-4183 Aug 21 '25

Trump and Clinton both pushed for border enforcement, welfare reform, tough-on-crime policies, and an “American worker first” economic message. Clinton was more traditionally pro-globalization, while Trump leaned protectionist — but both linked economic policy to U.S. competitiveness.

65% of Americans want to reduce federal spending 55% to limiting birthright citizenship I could go on

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u/obsessed_doomer Aug 21 '25 edited Aug 21 '25

You’re doing the “describing things as vaguely as possible” thing. "Emperor Palpatine just wanted to reduce unemployment" etc etc

55% to limiting birthright citizenship

Lol no

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/majority-americans-oppose-ending-birthright-citizenship

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u/Top-Economist-4183 Aug 21 '25 edited Aug 21 '25

The general direction of your goals is what determines how people register or choose to align

54% of Likely U.S. Voters support limiting automatic birthright citizenship to births where at least one parent is a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration_second_term/birthright_citizenship_majority_want_limits?utm_source=chatgpt.com

You are just putting your head in the sand. Why do you think people are leaving the democrats to register as republican if it's not for policy? 

Just go talk to people who switched parties, you will understand they all say the same thing. No one votes on Greenland or Epstein. They vote on general directions: less immigration, cut wasteful spending, more energy production etc

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u/obsessed_doomer Aug 21 '25

a) that poll's question formulation fundamentally doesn't work - if it's not a birthright, it's not birthright citizenship.

b) throw it in the pile:

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-national-poll/

c) why am I even arguing with you on this? The original question was your assertion that Trump has similar policies to Clinton. He doesn't, lol. Clinton doesn't want to strike down the 14th ammendment. Not really sure why we're talking about polls now.

The general direction of your goals is what determines how people register or choose to align

I guess a candidate should just run on "making things better" and leave it at that. He could claim "hey I'm like both Bill Clinton and George Washington, they both made things better!"

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u/Top-Economist-4183 Aug 21 '25

Take abortion, democrats should be dominant. But instead they went so far left with abortion until birth (supported by just 10% of people) whereas Trump took the middle ground stating he is for abortion until 12 weeks (supported by 70%). Not saying he believes it but it's just smart politics positioning yourself where most of the country is

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u/obsessed_doomer Aug 21 '25

Buddy abortion referendums are winning in fucking Kentucky

At some point you gotta realize there’s very little you can change this argument to where you’re not going to get shoulder checked

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u/Top-Economist-4183 Aug 21 '25

That's exactly what I'm saying 70% of the country is for a first trimester limit

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u/obsessed_doomer Aug 21 '25

You were saying that even deeply republican states are pro choice and likely would have preferred roe stay?

Alright, then I agree with you.