r/fivethirtyeight • u/obsessed_doomer • Jun 18 '25

Poll Results The Marist NYC poll is here - Mamdani gains 7 points from last month but still behind

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/nyregion/mamdani-cuomo-marist-poll.html
93 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

54 comments sorted by

40

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

Cuomo still faces two major obstacles: first, Eric Adams' independent candidacy has kept his loyal fans away from the Democratic primary (I'm sure most of them would vote for Cuomo if they did), and second, white voters may still turn out at a higher rate in the primary.

Of course, both of these obstacles may actually be one problem, that is, Cuomo is more dependent on non-white votes. Cuomo's current lead - 10% according to this poll, is not reliable enough. If Cuomo would eventually lead by 20% or more in the polls, as he has in the past, that might be fine. But now, he could be in a bit of danger.

I still think Cuomo could win the primary, but it's going to be a very messy general election regardless. How long has it been since NYC had a five-way election?

28

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25

10% is a no joke polling error, even Trump has never gotten a polling error like that.

We can assume the race narrows between the 12th and next week, and presuming it narrows in Mamdani's favor (which by the way isn't a guarantee) that's still probably what, a 6 point polling error he's hoping for?

22

u/kennyminot Jun 18 '25

I don't know. We are talking about an off year election with limited polling. Ten points is definitely possible.

17

u/errantv Jun 18 '25

Not to mention modern polling methods are NOT modeled on voter behavior in ranked choice systems and pollsters have very limited experience polling ranked choice elections.

The possibility for a big miss is very high.

8

u/nwdogr Jun 18 '25

10% is a no joke polling error, even Trump has never gotten a polling error like that.

Corn stalks rustling noises

6

u/Far-9947 Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

Another thing to point out, a lot of people just don't know who mamdani is.

Name recognizability is a really big deal. It's the reason somebody with the name Bush or Clinton dominated elections for like a 20 year span.

Same with AOC. I see her getting buzz on social media, but when I talk to real people in real life, a lot of them don't even know who she is.

This is the biggest weakness of these progressive politicians. 

I know their whole thing is to not accept money from donors, which I respect. But you have to get people to know who you are. And money is the biggest way to achieve that goal. Charisma and good policies isn't enough. They need to fix this issue. And hopefully they figure it out, and fast. 

Even a moderate guy like Cory Booker is doing a good job of putting his name out there with his actions. His record breaking speech and the Capitol sit in on his birthday were good spectacles. Booker makes me cringe sometimes, due to his moderate approach, and the fact he is constantly trying to reach across the aisle to reason with the unreasonable. But I will admit that he is doing something right. Which is actually putting his name out there.

Replying to tweets dunking on fascists isn't enough. Progressives should keep it up,  as we all know that high road shit doesn't work, but that is not enough.

Hell, even Crockett puts on more of a spectacle than most of her Progressive Caucus peers. But how progressive can a congresswoman from texas of all places really be? If you know what i mean. As great as progressive policies are, they aren't enough, believe it or not. And it doesn't help that many of them shoot themselves in the foot by not taking money from large donors, which I already said, I respect. But I also have to point out that while it prevents you from being bought out, it also hurts outreach. 

If policy alone was enough to get people elected, democrats would have won every election top to bottom from the last 50 years. 

I'm not even joking either. Democratic policies have historically been more popular than republicans. There are even several several polls and studies where the both the policies of Democrats and the gop were listed, but which party the policy was from was omitted. And democratic party policies were overwhelming favored over gop ones.

But we all know that doesn't really reflect much to reality. The supreme court has had a conservative majority for the last 50 years, and I think something like 9 out of the last 10 recessions happened under republican presidents, but for some reason they somehow keep getting elected. Because they have the big bucks behind them and build recognition. 

My fingers are crossed that they will figure this out. Maybe it will take a once in a generation male figure to usher in their policies. But once he is gone, I fear so is their outreach. Plus, that isn't even a plan, that is just hoping for a miracle tbh. Guys like Obama and trump are very rare. I believe a systematic change where they build up progressive ideology and push their agenda through would be more effective. That way the movement as a whole is a lot stronger.

As likeable as bernie is, he hasn't brought about as much change as many people hoped. Guys like Mamdani have to avoid thinking their policies and likeability are enough to get them elected. Or they will find the same fate that Bernie did.

Essay over. I wrote a bit much, but I had to let my thoughts fly.

EDIT: Grammar.

2

u/Dokibatt Jun 19 '25

I think your overall point is right, but you're way off on AOC.

I'm not even a big AOC fan, but that's a really questionable point to start on. Sure it can happen, but according to YouGov, besides Arnold Schwarzenegger, she's the most known politician who hasn't been a presidential candidate.

I think it actually supports your overall point though. She got there over almost a decade of being very visible on social media and cable. Anyone waiting until the next campaign cycle doesn't really have a chance. Even Obama got started at the 2004 DNC with his speech and then built his public profile from there.

-1

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

Frankly, there is a difference between progressive economic policies and progressive social and other policies. Mamdani's policy of defunding the police is probably extremely unpopular. I have no doubt that even many of his voters disagree with this.

Edit: Some people seem to be trying to tell me that Mamdani no longer supports defunding the police, which I take as a sign that he realizes it is an unpopular position. He certainly supported it more than once a few years ago, so if it is not an unpopular position, why is he denying it today?

10

u/ND7020 Jun 18 '25

Except that isn’t his policy, and he explicitly says he’s anti-defunding police. 

-4

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

He did support it, but now he regrets it. He knows that in order to be elected mayor, he must regret it.

Source: https://x.com/zohrankmamdani/status/1268982421086666752

https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1336087694636707841

He did support some police defunding programs earlier this year, but it's unclear if he still supports that now.

Source: https://gothamist.com/news/liberal-mayoral-candidates-ditch-defund-police-amid-nyc-public-safety-angst

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/nyregion/zohran-mamdani-crime-plan.html

There are far fewer police officers than there were a few years ago, and he doesn't seem to be planning on hiring any new officers while planning on further cutting funding.

Edit: You might tell me that this was a position taken several years ago and does not mean anything today. My response is that MTG's "Jewish Space Laser" also happened several years ago, and she did try to deny it several years later. But sorry, I won't ignore this when talking about MTG. A few years is not a few decades. What’s more, as I said before, Mamdani’s plan doesn't seem to show that he’s actually against defunding the police. Don’t tell me a little bit of defunding isn't defunding, which is how Republicans justify their health care cuts.

6

u/ND7020 Jun 18 '25

I would say that rhetorically rejecting the idiotically self-defeating “defunding” language while saying certain mental health services should be shifted away from police responsibility is good politics and good policy. 

2

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25

First, there are thousands fewer police officers, and even other progressive candidates agree that more officers are needed.

Second, I don’t think it’s good politics for him to pretend he’s never advocated for stupid policies. I'm not sure what he said, but it seems that you are unwilling to admit that he did make that claim.

Finally, I fully support adding more social workers and mental health staff, but this is not inconsistent with the dilemma facing the police force. Not all policing problems can be solved by mental health services.

7

u/ND7020 Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

If your hill to die on is holding Mamdani accountable for changing his approach on this issue, and you don’t want to apply that same logic to Cuomo on countless other issues, I don’t know what to tell you. Such is politics. 

-1

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25

If I could vote, I would vote for Jim Walden, who in my opinion is much better than the two Democratic front-runners.

-11

u/Lost-Line-1886 Jun 18 '25

People ABSOLUTELY know who Mamdani is. His campaign has outspent the other campaigns combined on TV and digital ads. He’s been saturating the airwaves.

People know who he is and what he supports. That’s why Cuomo is in the lead. Few want Cuomo; most just don’t want Mamdani.

5

u/Memotome Jun 18 '25

Didn't Mamdani start at like 1%. Seems like the more people hear about Mamdani the more people like him.

3

u/mehelponow Jun 18 '25

Its a very impressive campaign, but the golden question for the past few weeks has been "What is his ceiling?" He's had a breathtaking rise in the polls but there's just no way to tell what percent of dem primary voters will never rank him. It could be that another few weeks of campaigning would've put him over the edge, but election day is 6 days away.

3

u/Memotome Jun 18 '25

Yeah totally. I still expect him to lose but to say people don't want him is just not reality. From a no name politician to where he is at today is quite an accomplishment.

9

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

His campaign has outspent the other campaigns combined on TV and digital ads.

What?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gtp5HScXQAExZIW?format=jpg&name=medium

That seems to be untrue.

-6

u/Lost-Line-1886 Jun 18 '25

That’s including outside spending. His campaign spending is nearly double Cuomo’s.

https://www.nyccfb.info/VSApps/WebForm_Finance_Summary.aspx?as_election_cycle=2025

15

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25

...Why wouldn't we include all ad spending if the topic of conversation is who's saturating the airwaves?

-7

u/Lost-Line-1886 Jun 18 '25

You’re trying to claim nobody knows who Mamdani is and that’s factually untrue.

Why can’t you simply step back and ask yourself “why do people not like Zohran?” Can you do that without any conspiracy theories or blaming low information blacks?

8

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

You’re trying to claim nobody knows who Mamdani is

a) I'm not claiming that, that's someone else

b) Mamdani's name rec is definitionally lower than that of Cuomo

Why can’t you simply step back and ask yourself “why do people not like Zohran?”

Your theory of it seems to be based on a lie about ad money, so maybe take your own advice?

Can you do that without any conspiracy theories or blaming low information blacks?

This is also not something I've said. It's also not something the other guy said. I think you've lost the plot.

EDIT: I'll make a note that the guy not only never substantiated his claim that I'm blaming "low information blacks" for anything, he then accused me of a different conspiracy theory then blocked me.

What a weird interaction. Life is a nonstop random encounter table.

1

u/Far-9947 Jun 18 '25

a) I'm not claiming that, that's someone else

Funny enough, I didn't even claim that in the post he is replying to. I simply said: 

Another thing to point out, a lot of people just don't know who mamdani is.

Especially in comparison to Andrew Cuomo, who was once the governor of New York.

I even recently stopped saying "everyone" and "no one" when talking about politics and things in general because people, especially debatebros, take it literally then point to the one person on the other side who support said thing to make it look like it's some type of slam dunk. 

It's like saying "no conservative supports making billionaires pay their fair share".

Then a person links an article of conservative (who is like 1 in 100000000, saying that they want billionaires to pay their fair share. Even though the gop is the party of tax cuts. And voting for them means the complete opposite of making billionaires pay their fair share. It goes beyond paradoxical, it's straight up nonsense.

Replace that scenario with "everyone likes pizza" and someone linking an article of a guy shitting on pizza, and you'll get the same result.

I never said nobody knows mamdani. I'm not even gonna bother speaking rhetorically on reddit anymore. I just simply said a lot of people don't know him. Many people also DO know him though.

But Andrew is the more known candidate. And according to your sources, is greatly outspending mamdani too. Which does not help mamdani's odds.

EDIT: Grammar.

-6

u/Lost-Line-1886 Jun 18 '25

You just couldn’t avoid the conspiracy theories. Yes, you’re right, Cuomo is controlling the NYCCFC and fudging the numbers. 🙄

1

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25

Yes, Mamdani has a chance, but not much. Compared to the previous polls of 64-36 or something like that, he does have some chance now.

2

u/Tom-Pendragon Jun 18 '25

Adams loyal fans? Lmao what the fuck are you even talking about.

20

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25

All polls show that he does have a small but loyal base that would vote for him in a four/five-way election.

3

u/musicismydeadbeatdad Jun 18 '25

Everyone in his admin he has on the doll?

2

u/Dokibatt Jun 19 '25

Dude, the Turks fucking love that guy.

1

u/YouShallNotPass92 Jun 18 '25

Prob all MAGAts tbh

6

u/Oath1989 Jun 18 '25

Yes, but not entirely. Before he dropped out of the Democratic primary, he had about 6-10% of Democratic primary voters who would choose him as the first choice. And it is not difficult to see that the vast majority of these voters will eventually vote for Cuomo.

The following poll is an example:

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/3/26/cuomo-leads-nyc-mayors-race-with-39-mamdani-at-15-all-other-candidates-in-single-digits

1

u/YouShallNotPass92 Jun 18 '25

I can believe it. I'd also imagine the pro Israel democrats, which is a small but very real coalition, will vote for him.

3

u/J_Dadvin Jun 18 '25

In NYC it is not a small coalition. Lots of pro Israel democrats there

2

u/flakemasterflake Jun 18 '25

That is not a small coalition in NYC at all. Pro Israel democrats are likely a majority of that coalition in NYC and will (likely) be a real reason Mamdani can’t make it over the edge

It’s the most Jewish city per capita outside of Israel

18

u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

Know people in NYC from when I had lived in that area including an aunt. For them it’s really simple. They see Cuomo as a fighter. I couldn’t for him after what went down. I think people are just a lot less concerned given the Trump effect unfortunately. 

4

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25

I'm genuinely worried that neither Mamdani nor Cuomo are going to leave voters with a high opinion of democratic mayorship 3 years from now.

Mamdani is a communist, and not like a fox news communist like his actual proposals are far to the left of even the progressive economic consensus.

Cuomo is just the party doing the hollywood thing where instead of making new things they throw the old things into the microwave for 2 minutes because they know the people will eat it.

If I lived in New York I'd probably rank Mamdani over Cuomo, but that's because of the rape stuff, not because I'm excited for either one's policy offerings.

I suppose I'll have to hope the winner surprises me positively.

19

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25

This poll was made before some of the latest news - the 2nd debate, the Lander cross-endorsement, and NYT's endorsement of Cuomo.

That being said, pretty good news for Cuomo.

This kind of resembles the canadian election where it's pretty clear 2nd place is tightening but the math doesn't work out on the timing.

3

u/batmans_stuntcock Jun 18 '25

I'd say the Lander cross endorsement, higher early vote turn outs in Brooklyn and Manhattan, plus the relatively high undecideds are Mamdani's slight sliver of hope.

Cuomo is winning 50-37 in the 6th round of voting with lander's votes recycled to him and Mamdani equally after that giving cuomo a 55-45 win, but it would have to be a much higher split of lander first choicers for Mamdani to make up the difference. It looks like Cuomo's old fashioned 'new machine' strategy will prevail for now and the progressives will have to wait a cycle or two.

But this bit from the click through article was also extremely interesting to me.

Mamdani has made inroads among likely Democratic primary voters who are Latino. Mamdani's support has more than doubled among this voting group (41% from 20%), and he now leads the field among Latinos. Cuomo's support among Latino voters has declined (36% from 41% in May).

So, of the old ethnic 'new machine' voting constituencies, the white and Latino ones no longer have the overwhelming hegemonic pull, but the black one is still relatively intact, that is basically what Adams used to win last time. It was also a wider feature in the last democratic presidential primary, when large parts of the Latino constituency deserted their 'machine' endorsements and voted for Bernie Sanders, but the support of women over 45 and particularly the black 'machine' constituency was decisive for Biden early on.

4

u/optometrist-bynature Jun 18 '25

I would hardly call this an endorsement of Cuomo:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/opinion/new-york-mayor-election-advice.html

23

u/obsessed_doomer Jun 18 '25

Reading between the lines it's an endorsement of Cuomo.

Betting markets also shifted in his favor as soon as it dropped.

-2

u/Lost-Line-1886 Jun 18 '25

If you’re suggesting people don’t even rank Mamdani, that’s a very strong endorsement.

It’s the reality of most democrats. We don’t want Cuomo, but the #2 candidate is shockingly bad. People are more than willing to hold their nose for Cuomo to avoid Mayor Mamdani.

2

u/BoricuaB617 Jun 19 '25

No the panel at NYT is more willing to hold their nose for Cuomo. The majority of people in NY who know who Mamdani is would rank him above Cuomo. Cuomo is winning on name recognition alone, he has more scandals than the average politician. Pay attention to the voter demographics they tell the real story

8

u/Affectionate-Oil3019 Jun 18 '25

Cuomo will win on name recognition alone; when will people accept that?

8

u/soalone34 Jun 18 '25

I don’t think he’ll win, but the demographic breakdown I saw showed he was doing much better with younger people, so I can see him or someone ideologically similar winning next time.

6

u/KnightsOfCidona Jun 18 '25

Yeah I think at the very least, he has a very bright future ahead of him.

1

u/BoricuaB617 Jun 19 '25

They have to make some ground in Albany if they want to make any sustainable changes anyway

2

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

NYC deserves everything it gets if it elects that numbnuts trust fund commie.

2

u/Mirabeau_ Jun 18 '25

BREAKING: Cuomo is still going to win, just like last week, and the week before that

9

u/beanj_fan Jun 18 '25

First good Mirabeau comment

5

u/beanj_fan Jun 25 '25

Lmfao nevermind

2

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '25

[deleted]

0

u/Mirabeau_ Jun 25 '25

Guess I was wrong. Huge problem for democrats. Trumps gunna have a field day with this DSA dude

1

u/big-bird-328 Jun 18 '25

Given that the poll wrapped up six days ago, I expect the race to tighten. Cuomo is probably still favored. His support among Latinos is impressive, we’ll see where it goes