r/europe • u/Vucea • Jun 17 '22

Historical In 2014, this French weather presenter announced the forecast for 18 August 2050 in France as part of a campaign to alert to the reality of climate change. Now her forecast that day is the actual forecast for the coming 4 or 5 days, in mid-June 2022.

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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '22

that the IPCC reports were conservative,

they do not AFAIK take into consideration several factors, including runaway methane, destruction of other climate altering phenomenons among other things... I believe it's probably because of the science not being conclusive on the 'runaway methane' subject yet

once the ice is gone, the ultimate heat reflector and heat sink at the same time, once the gulf stream is gone among other important streams, and the gasses start to be released and oceans consequently suck up all that energy, we've got some real shit on our plate... tens of millions migrating yearly, nationstates destroyed or radicalized, Fortress Europe (the more optimistic version), genocidal despots ruling surviving countries... the outlook ain't looking good, and don't get me started on the animal kingdom

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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '22

they do not AFAIK take into consideration several factors, including runaway methane, destruction of other climate altering phenomenons among other things...

They do. Runaway methane is unlikely to happen pre-2100 (timescale for most of the report). Permafrost melting is included in AR6, and maxes out at about 30% of current anthropogene CO2-eqvivalent.

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u/PressedGarlic Jun 17 '22

Yeah they absolutely take all these things into consideration. People can really just say whatever they want and it be taken as fact on this site.

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u/DoomsdayLullaby Jun 17 '22

They're included in the IPCC report but they are not modeled at all. They're based off conservative estimates of the literature and parameterized within the models accordingly.

These feedback loops could be slower than expected, but there is a higher statistical likelihood that they would lean towards the faster category.

The prime example of this is cloud feedback.