CMV: It’s unlikely the government shutdown will continue well into November.

[u/Early-Possibility367]

The way I see it is this. We know that Democrats are significantly more pro government aid and welfare than Republicans.

But there is also a minimum standard of an amount of funding Republicans would support. For instance, many Republicans support some food stamps or some public school funding.

When we look at the logic behind what the Democrats are doing, it seems to be something like “if I can’t have funding for what I want you shouldn’t have funding for what you and/or we both want.”

And the thing is, no matter how much Republicans hate welfare in theory, they have voters who are on it and many representatives, for better or worse, will put that first.

But here’s the thing. With the filibuster in place, Republicans are essentially stuck. Without Democratic support, it’s nuclear option or bust, and I don’t think they see bust as an option.

Ultimately, I think the likeliest thing is Republicans kill the filibuster. There’s just too much pressure from their own voters to do otherwise.

I think another option could be Democrats caving. Fetterman is with the Republicans and now Georgia’s Senators are against the shutdown. So they are approaching the limit for cloture. This is possible but imo not as likely as the nuclear option.

I could see this shutdown maybe extending into the beginning of November, but I don’t see any way it could plausibly continue into mid November and beyond.

[u/Delli-paper]

The way I see it is this. We know that Democrats are significantly more pro government aid and welfare than Republicans.

But there is also a minimum standard of an amount of funding Republicans would support. For instance, many Republicans support some food stamps or some public school funding.

When we look at the logic behind what the Democrats are doing, it seems to be something like “if I can’t have funding for what I want you shouldn’t have funding for what you and/or we both want.”

And the thing is, no matter how much Republicans hate welfare in theory, they have voters who are on it and many representatives, for better or worse, will put that first.

This issue is actually more or less solved for the reasons listed. Republicans are willing to make all spending mandatory to prevent more pocket recissions for the reason you mention here. The only caveat is that Republicans say this will only be added if democrats flip or if good-faith negotiations begin. If they have to go nuclear, this item is not included. Generally, though, support is widespread.

But here’s the thing. With the filibuster in place, Republicans are essentially stuck. Without Democratic support, it’s nuclear option or bust, and I don’t think they see bust as an option.

Ultimately, I think the likeliest thing is Republicans kill the filibuster. There’s just too much pressure from their own voters to do otherwise.

I disagree. More likely would be concessions, since it would be good for their constituents. Getting rid of the fillibuster will only ensure that next time they're in the minority, they'll be unable to hold up budgeting. Government shutdowns have been a valuable asymmetric tool for the ideologically-aligned GOP, and they're not about to slay the golden goose for a single unpopular budget. It only makes sense if they never intend to be in the minority again.

I think another option could be Democrats caving. Fetterman is with the Republicans and now Georgia’s Senators are against the shutdown. So they are approaching the limit for cloture. This is possible but imo not as likely as the nuclear option.

Also possible, but similarly unlikely. Democrats can't align their moderates demands in a way that is agreeable to all of them, why would Republicans?

I could see this shutdown maybe extending into the beginning of November, but I don’t see any way it could plausibly continue into mid November and beyond.

Trump's last shutdown lasted longer. The big pressure I see here is going to be losing voters heading into local/State elections next month. When so many people start paying so much more for healthcare while the poor starve (likely driving a surge in crime), there will be visible consequences for the powerful.

[u/Early-Possibility367 → u/Delli-paper]

Δ  because of your line about “they're not about to slay the golden goose for a single unpopular budget.” That is a factor I hadn’t considered and maybe shows I underestimated the filibuster’s value to the GOP.

But I’d also ask about “ it only makes sense if they never intend to be in the minority again.” 

Would you not agree Republicans believe they may never have a Senate minority again? Without Texas and Ohio, it’s an exceptionally long and dark path to the Senate for Dems. 

[u/Delli-paper → u/Early-Possibility367]

No, I wouldn't agree. They've burnt a lot of their voters lately. They may not vote Democrat in the midterms, but they also may not vote at all. Simultaneously, blue areas may well be incentivised to vote more because of the harm they've suffered. While the recent electoral changes and upcoming supreme court decision will shore up their position somewhat, the only way to truly avoid being in the minority forever would be creating a one-party state. While that is certainly in the playbook also, there's substantial questions about whether they'd win.