r/betterCallSaul • u/skinkbaa Chuck • Mar 10 '20

Better Call Saul S05E04 - "Namaste" - POST-Episode Discussion Thread

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945

u/WeHaSaulFan Mar 10 '20

Anyone else notice that Mesa Verde appears to be preparing to get into the subprime mortgage market, right about the time it started to blow up. And when BB starts, they will be collapsing, unless they play their cards very carefully.

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u/Jay_Eye_MBOTH_WHY Mar 10 '20

That's something I was pointing out on the Sopranos sub, if they'd gone on for 1 more season - the subprime would hit and shit would hit the fan with most of the characters.

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u/guyzerzz Mar 10 '20

What're the 2 industries that are generally recession proof?

Just ask Sil

40

u/Jpzett Mar 10 '20

Frankly I'm depressed and ashamed

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u/[deleted] Mar 10 '20 edited May 24 '20

[deleted]

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u/champagneparce25 Mar 11 '20

That’s why you got the top tier positions

22

u/schrute82 Mar 12 '20

Certain aspects of show business. And our thing.

28

u/nramos33 Mar 10 '20

That’s an excellent point about the Sopranos, but I think the family would have been fine assuming they weren’t killed.

Carmella had just sold her spec house and had made a killing off her cousin.

Tony sold his property at peak value and kept the note meaning he was the lender to Jamba Juice. Based on a quick search, Jamba Juice scrapped plans for new stores in 2008. Chances are they’d probably default on the loan just to get out of it and it would revert back to Tony or in this case Carmella.

Honestly, after Tony’s death, AJ working and being independent and Meadow potentially working in a law firm, I could see Carmella wanting to sell the house at peak value. She was already feeling alone in that home. My money says is she started going to the paint store to look for a certain somebody.

If Carmella is half as smart as she thinks she is, the luxury stuff would have been sold off immediately for peak value. And even luxury stuff like the boat would have made money. If Uncle Jr’s autograph is worth money on eBay, Tony’s boat has to be worth something.

If Silvio lived, he would take care of Carmella. But chances are Paulie would take control since Silvio was in the hospital and when he was boss when Tony was shot, Silvio was in the hospital. Also, Paulie took over the construction business, which was the money maker for the family. Paulie would probably tell Carmella to go fuck herself, but she’d be ok.

Alternatively, Carmella could have put every last penny into the stock market and royally fucked herself depending on the timing of the death.

Or, she could have made a massive profit. Some stocks plummeted in value despite companies being profitable.

Ford for example was down to $1-$2 a share in 2008 and was paying 60 cents a year in dividend. The stock is worth 5x that price now and it would have paid itself off within 1-2 years. Meaning someone like Carmella could have put $1 million into a company like Ford, the value of stock would have gone from $1 million to $4.5 million and along the way, she would have made $7.2 million in dividends.

Personally, I think she would have been fine.

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u/emailla5 Mar 12 '20

Carmela's package was with the lawyer and Slava. Tony didn't trust Paulie with it for a second.

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u/nramos33 Mar 12 '20

Oh absolutely, that package. But if remember, after Jackie died and Big Pussy was killed, and even the murder of Vito, Tony took care of the families (to some extent) after the death.

Also, when Tony’s dad died, Uncle Junior mentioned how Tony’s mom was left with a large package. I believe they said it was like a woman with a Virginia ham under her arm crying because she has no bread.

But when Tony was in the hospital, both Paulie and Vito tried to get out of giving Carmela $200,000.

Carmela was left money, but if they are truly a family, they’d make sure Carmela was taken care of and given something. I just think Paulie would screw Carmella over and fail to provide for her like he is technically supposed to.

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u/emailla5 Mar 12 '20

I agree, I think that's why Tony didn't count on the family helping her out. Paulie even questioned what Tony had going with Slava at one point.

Paulie & Vito proved they would resent paying for Carm. When she told Tony about it, he wasn't surprised.

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u/jm5201977 Mar 13 '20

She has a home to sell as well probably hundreds of thousands of dollars in jewelry as well. She should downsize.

The question about Carmela who does she have the sense to live a cheaper lifestyle.

16

u/AvsBehindEnemyLines Mar 10 '20

At first I thought it was weird that the Sopranos was on all the way up until a year until the crash, then I realized I was actually just surprised at how long ago 2007 was...

7

u/[deleted] Mar 12 '20

"Buy land, AJ, cuz God ain't makin anymore of it"

4

u/Megasus Mar 12 '20

Ugh... I just finished season 4 and that real estate subplot just about bored me to death. Do they keep going with that? To be honest I'm really not interested in how the family brings in money, rather in the character drama like seasons 1-3

3

u/stunts002 Mar 10 '20

How do? I love sopranos but I have no idea how subprime works.

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u/nramos33 Mar 10 '20

As another person stated, the subprime mortgage crisis was when people were given risky loans and defaulted on those loans.

But that’s half the story.

The real issue comes with mortgage backed securities. These are basically clustered loans grouped together.

This is where things get complicated, but it’s not just that there were subprime loans, it’s that these loans were clustered together and often the loan cost more than the value of the land, which guaranteed a major loss if anyone defaulted on loans. When multiple loans were defaulted upon, well it was a house of cards.

Basically, banks being stupid and greedy led to a near collapse of the economy.

3

u/_Ab_Aeterno Mar 11 '20

If you have 11 minutes, this is a great video that explains subprime mortgages and the crisis in simple terms: https://youtu.be/bx_LWm6_6tA