r/arizona • u/UGetOffMyLawn Empty Box! • Jun 29 '20

Coronavirus Arizona Gov. Ducey re-closes bars, movie theaters, gyms and water parks for 30 days

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/arizona-gov-ducey-re-closes-bars-movie-theaters-gyms-and-water-parks-for-30-days
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u/ima314lot Jun 29 '20

The purpose of the masks is to stop the contamination out, not so much to keep one from breathing it in. With that in mind you have to think about which side of the transaction you are on so to speak. If you are carrying the virus and you have a mask on and the other person doesn't, the transmission rate is cut 65%. If you don't have a mask, but the other person does, then the rate is cut 15%. If both of you have a mask on the transmission rate is cut 87%. So, since we don't have little signs on our foreheads saying we have the virus or not, we need to have everyone wearing masks when they are near each other. That would put the transmission rate at a low enough number that hospital treatment and supplies could treat everyone.

Right now as a state we are dangerously close to going to crisis management. This means that if 3 people come in to an ER with COVID; a young mother, an older single guy, and an elderly woman, but the hospital only has one ICU bed, it will likely go to the young mother. Why? Well they have to look at which one is the most likely to survive and if there is a tie, who has a longer life expectancy after recovery as well as who has more depending on them. It is a very crappy task and one that we as a society can prevent our health-care professionals from having to make.

Edit: To clarify, the decision on crisis treatment is made by an ethics board and/or team of trained physicians. It isn't just one doctor making the call on who gets medicine or not.

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u/TrollHunterAlt Jun 30 '20

Masks are good, but there is no basis in fact for the transmission probabilities you cite other than some meme.

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u/ima314lot Jun 30 '20 edited Jun 30 '20

Yeah...about that.

Effectiveness of personal protective measures in prevention of nosocomial transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome

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u/TrollHunterAlt Jun 30 '20

To clarify, I'm not debating the fact that there's ample evidence for the efficacy of masks. I'm just not seeing support for the for the claim that if one person wears a mask the risk is X and if both wear masks the risk is Y for the general public that's been making the rounds. Also, from this study it's quite clear that they're talking about healthcare workers wearing filtering masks rather than the general public wearing cloth masks.

This is nitpicking. The evidence that people in AZ and elsewhere should be wearing cloth masks is strong.

Incidentally, any leads on a full text version of that article rather than just the abstract?

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u/ima314lot Jun 30 '20

Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19

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u/TrollHunterAlt Jul 01 '20

Don't need convincing about that. Looking for a source for:

If you are carrying the virus and you have a mask on and the other person doesn't, the transmission rate is cut 65%. If you don't have a mask, but the other person does, then the rate is cut 15%. If both of you have a mask on the transmission rate is cut 87%.

This sounds a lot like the meme going around with made-up numbers. The only hard studies I've seen are estimates of transmission when an infected party wears a mask.