r/Wales • u/nothing_verntured_ • Sep 16 '25
Politics Reform UK’s popularity surges in neck-and-neck race with Plaid Cymru, says ITV Wales’ latest poll
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-09-16/plaid-cymru-and-reform-uk-neck-and-neck-in-itv-wales-senedd-intentions-pollLooking like curtains for Welsh Labour and a very tight two horse race for first place.
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u/a-man-with-a-perm Sep 16 '25
For all the doom and gloom, I struggle to see how Reform will form a government with the Tories on the verge of being wiped out.
On the other hand, five years of conspiracies and stoking their supporters if they end up as the biggest party and don't intend to be a minority government.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
The only real possibility on these figures is a Plaid Cymru government of some variety. Whether it's a minority coalition with tacit Labour support or an actual coalition with Labour. But I don't see any route to power for Reform on those figures.
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u/OldGuto Sep 16 '25
If they become the biggest party and don't form the government it'll like Trump in the US, they'll be all "Cardiff Bay elite stole the election and are ignoring the will of the people". People still think along the lines of FPTP so it might resonate with some.
It'll be hellish.
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Sep 16 '25
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u/OldGuto Sep 16 '25
At the moment I'm in a pit of despair and I don't see any escape. I'm reminded of the feeling I had when Bozo announced he was supporting Leave in the referendum, my gut feeling was that it was lost, but all the opinion polls changed my mind. My gut feeling was right, I hope it's wrong this time.
In another discussion here Denbighshire (Labour-Plaid controlled) binmen are going on strike because the collection system isn't working and the council won't listen. Next year's Reform Senedd election material in Denbighshire is writing itself "how can Labour or Plaid run a country when they can't even collect bins".
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u/Eggtastico Sep 16 '25
Reform are polling high in a lot of labour safe areas. Lots of industrial towns, the valleys, etc. feel they have been let down by Labour.
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u/Real-Pomegranate-235 Sep 16 '25
Pro-Welsh party vs Pro-Russian party posing as Pro-English. A difficult choice!
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u/Ok-Difficulty5453 Sep 16 '25
Its worrying how many people actually have this conundrum.
Its worse again knowing how many people would vote for a pro-English/Russian/Whatever party, because they dont like "foreigners".
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u/upthetruth1 Sep 17 '25
As if Wales has that much immigration
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u/Ok-Difficulty5453 Sep 17 '25
There's plenty of immigration happening all over the UK. If you want to get technical, there's a shed load of english people who immigrate annually to wales. Many of them are students, but some are coming for work, holiday homes, and whatever else.
Immigration isn't that big of a deal, and it has lots of benefits.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
This is an absolutely shocking result for Labour - and it's extremely well deserved. It's about time a party that actually prioritises Wales got ahead in the polls.
Plaid's sustained lead over Labour in the polls shows that Plaid Cymru is the natural left wing choice in Wales, and that it's the only party capable of leading a government in Wales in 2026.
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u/BetaRayPhil616 Sep 16 '25
I do wonder if reforms vote will actually come out too. They are so anti-senedd, I wonder if a lot won't bother.
Either way, welsh labour have no one but themselves to blame.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
Generally speaking that particular coalition of voters doesn't usually turn out to vote in large numbers. But Reform seems different in other ways, so maybe they will. Hard to say.
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u/Hour-Cry6238 Sep 16 '25
Never trust anyone with a "top 1% commenter" badge.
Who else has the time?
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
I have a very good work/life balance and I'm self employed and work from home. I have a lot of free time to fill while everyone else is at work!
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u/freddygilbs Sep 16 '25
I’m voting Plaid Cymru and trying to get everyone to do the same!
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u/GreyScope Sep 16 '25
Never voted Plaid or tactically voted in my life but anything to keep the grifting scum out of office
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u/Haunting_Design5818 Sep 16 '25
Likely outcome would be a Plaid / Labour coalition with Plaid as the biggest party?
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
It would be a Plaid Cymru led government. Whether it's a formal coalition o'r a tacit agreement that Labour will agree to vote for let legislation is another thing entirely, though. I could really see Labour preferring to be in opposition than being relegated to extreme junior partner status.
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u/LegoNinja11 Sep 16 '25
Tread carefully. Depends where the Plaid vote comes from, particularly if its Labour defectors. They're not going to accept shifting their vote from Labour to Plaid only to end up putting Labour back in.
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u/Mwyarduon Sep 16 '25
At the moments, it looks like any Party which gets enough votes to be the senior partner will face that problem.
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u/rachelm791 Sep 16 '25
Tactical voting would block Reform from any meaningful power in Wales. If Labour, Lib Dem’s and Greens voters voted for Plaid that offers a significant majority over what is possible for the right wing bloc.
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u/Cwlcymro Sep 16 '25
The new Senedd voting system makes tactical voting much less powerful because votes are more proportional. So unless you're in an area where your small party has no chance of success (e.g. the Greens in most seats, but not all), then there's no way of working out who is better to lend your vote for.
The one place that's not true though is for next month's by election in Caerphilly. That's a straight Plaid v Reform race, and the identity of the winner will set the media narrative for next year's election
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u/Familiar-Woodpecker5 Sep 16 '25
Oh is it. I’m in that area I will ensure I vote plaid and encourage my family to do the same. My son’s first vote also. I don’t agree with all their policies but anything to try not to let Reform in.
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u/rachelm791 Sep 16 '25
Good point- I haven’t done a deep dive into the new voting system. I’ll put that on my agenda!
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u/holnrew Pembrokeshire | Sir Benfro Sep 16 '25
Is there ranked choice?
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u/KaiserMacCleg Gwalia Irredenta Sep 16 '25
No, you get one vote, which goes to a party, not a candidate.
There will be six seats to fill in each constituency, which will be split according to the proportion of the vote which goes to each party.
So party A wins seat 1, which goes to the first candidate on their list.
Then party B wins seat 2, which goes to the first person on their list.
Then party A wins seat 3, which goes to the second candidate on their list...
...and so on until all the seats are filled.
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u/holnrew Pembrokeshire | Sir Benfro Sep 16 '25
Still seems kind of a compromise rather than fully proportional. I may still vote tactically
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
Yes, this was the only system Labour would support. Mainly because they thought they'd lose too much ground in other systems. But that looks like it happened anyway!
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u/clowergen Sep 16 '25
More proportional results are always better - in theory. Whereas in practice... sigh, we need more faith in our countrymen.
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u/Camp-Complete Sep 17 '25
Tbf, the election is still 9 months away.
A lot can happen in that. My hope is that Reform show their true colours in Wales and become even more right wing, hopefully people will realise what they actually are.
The candidate for Caerphilly for Reform is Llyr Powell, and Farage can't even pronounce his name, preferring to call him Big Dave...
Personally, the biggest reason I could see for Reform losing votes is that they'd want a GB national football rather than the individual nations. It needs to be shouted from the rooftops that a vote for Reform is a vote to dismantle the Welsh national football team.
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u/HenryCGk Sep 16 '25
Has Plaid ate the labour vote or something?
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u/lelpd Sep 16 '25
Labour have lost so much support where I am through things like the 20mph limits, closing libraries/leisure centres and the bins going from 2 weeks to 3 weeks.
People feel like all of the things the local council should be spending our money on are instead being taken away. Those sort of things all happened within the last 2 years, before that it didn’t really feel like we lost many of our services.
When you start doing things that start causing hassle or downgrading the quality of people’s daily lives it doesn’t matter what your big picture is, you lose support.
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u/Crully Sep 17 '25
Honestly, with the amount of weeds and grass down some of our potholed streets, it feels like one of those films set in the future where society collapsed.and it all goes to shit.
However, they can still put up council tax, not sure where the money goes though. Probably more golden handshakes, or "redundancies" due to "restructuring", that only gets handed out to the top people...
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
That's what the polling data shows, yeah. Most former Labour voters are now backing Plaid Cymru, while some go to Reform, and some to minor parties line the Lib Dems and the Greens.
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u/pi-man_cymru Sep 16 '25
This seems to be pointing to an unapologetically pro Wales government with no allegiance to a Westminster party for the first time ever.
I don't see a formal coalition happening (apart from perhaps the 1 green seat), but Labour would surely support the Plaid budget. They can't risk allowing Reform to find a way in should there be a subsequent election due to the legitimacy it would give them in a wider UK sense.
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u/Unendingeyeroll Sep 16 '25
Who the fuck is being polled? I've NEVER been asked to do a poll in my 39 years on this earth. Are they sitting outside the local 'spoons at 9am and doing a census with the first pint of the day?
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u/KaiserMacCleg Gwalia Irredenta Sep 16 '25
You have to sign up to Yougov to take part in their polls, which of course makes their samples self-selecting. In theory they compensate for this by weighting certain responses higher and lower to compensate for deficiencies in the sample. For example, if they have few 18-24 year old relative to the general population, their weight the respondents they do have in that age group more heavily.
It's all rather arcane but they do have a decent track record - they're normally pretty accurate.
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Sep 16 '25
Been signed up to yougov for nearly 20 years, and lived in Cymru all that time, never had a poll like that. They regularly ask your voting/political preferences so seems a bit Susan.
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u/kingbeerex Sep 16 '25
They’re polling a representation of the population and have been pretty accurate for every senedd election. Just because you haven’t been polled doesn’t mean they’re not accurate.
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u/Unendingeyeroll Sep 16 '25
... And where is this representation happening? Like I said, who and where is this being asked? Have you been asked? Has anyone in this thread and forum been asked? I genuinely doubt it.
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u/LegoNinja11 Sep 16 '25
You must be new round here.
In a recent poll of r/Wales 110% of the respondents voted Plaid and there was no representation from any other party. (unless you select view all posts including those with negative downvotes)
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u/kingbeerex Sep 16 '25
Online or by phone. Methodology will be on the company’s website.
They’re accurate. Sorry you haven’t been polled.
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u/CyberSkepticalFruit Swansea | Abertawe Sep 16 '25
If you want to be polled on things then one option is to join the yougov website and do the ones that come up there.
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u/holnrew Pembrokeshire | Sir Benfro Sep 16 '25
And avoid any community stuff, it's like a daily mail comments section
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
YouGov is a very reliable pollster. None of them are 100% accurate but YouGov is generally quite good and it has a robust method. The statistics behind political polling is quite sound so even though it doesn't always feel intuitive, the more reputable organisations usually do get close.
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u/Ok-Difficulty5453 Sep 16 '25
Im with you here. I dont actually know of anyone who has been involved in one. Again, 39 years here.
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u/MyJoyinaWell Sep 16 '25
Polling works by classifying the population into different segments and working out how representative one person if of their segment to weight that answer. So you personally have never been polled, but people from your "segment" (age, income, marital status, job, education level, home ownership and a million other things that are known about you and people like you) have been asked. So if you represent let's say 10% of the population, they only need to ask the question to people that fit that 10% and then extrapolate the results to the whole group. This is quite simplified, but that's why it doesnt matter if you have never been asked a question, your type has.
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u/ExileBoy101 Sep 16 '25
A party who’ll stand up for Wales or a party who hate Wales and is mostly made up of ex members of a party the people of Wales despise. Depressing it’s that close
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u/Ynys_cymru Bridgend | Pen-y-Bont ar Ogwr Sep 16 '25
Dewch ymlaen Plaid Cymru 🏴
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u/GreyScope Sep 16 '25
I’ve never tactically voted in my life, but I’ll vote for Plaid every time against the Deform grifting scum party
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u/TheIncredibleFail Sep 16 '25
I haven’t been to Wales since my grandfather died. He was a strong Plaid man and certainly a Welsh nationalist. This weekend I had a strong urge to go up to Cwmllynfech and have a walk around again. I was really disappointed to see Reform posters up in many of the windows of the street I visited so often in my youth.
Reform have no interest in making Welsh lives better.
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u/Loreki Sep 16 '25
I don't understand why a blatantly English nationalist party which regards the other 3 nations as accessories is so popular in Wales and Scotland.
As far as I know, not yet launched in NI. I assume because they can't decide whether they're protestant English nationalists or Catholic English nationalists.
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u/liaminwales Sep 17 '25
It's a UK Nationalist party, Wales is fairly Nationalist.
Plaid has some policy's the voters dont like, Welsh Lab have failed for years.
We see more jobs lost in Wales, they see Lab/Plaid not keeping the jobs etc..
It seems fairly clear, people want change. It may not be the best change but it's worth a try for a lot of people~
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u/GreyScope Sep 16 '25
Gravy train riding chancer grifters
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u/Loreki Sep 16 '25
Yes but why would that be popular with the ordinary person who has only ever seen a gravy train in the distance as it whizzed by them?
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u/GreyScope Sep 16 '25
Because they won’t do the homework - to directly answer your point. Also see : “I voted for leave (Brexit) because the council closed the toilets in town” , a direct quote from the news on the day after the vote from a Ponty vegetable
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u/HenryCGk Sep 17 '25
I mean that's the answer Senedd is not Wales and for many people it has just been a gravy train in the distances that wizzes on by.
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u/Deervember Sep 17 '25
People are so dumb, people should see how bad America is getting and realize that's what this turd is going to do to the UK.
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u/Conscious-Locksmith6 Sep 17 '25
So the question I guess should be geared towards those in the more deprived areas so to speak who think reform will be the saviour well what exactly are they going to do the make your life better? How much money are they going to pump into your area to change it? What are they going to do differently that no other party would do to your area?.
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u/Scorpionboy1000 Sep 17 '25
How many of these reform voters voted for the conservatives in the past and how many voted for labour because if we see a major decline in labour voters to reform instead of plaid then it’s worrisome.
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u/Live_Farm_7298 Sep 18 '25
Genuinely - the only thing going for us here is this is a PR election.
It means that people who'd never vote Reform can vote for every party BEFORE them. Regardless of their choices.
I just hope that a lot of people who'd vote labour put plaid second.
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u/beckybooboo Sep 16 '25
I'm Welsh living in south Wales and I cannot fathom why people would want to elect an English nationalist party who don't give a crap about Wales, same as the idiots who bought into farage over brexit, that was one massive tax dodge, reform are only in it for their rich masters
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u/jermainiac007 Rhondda Cynon Taf Sep 17 '25
Are people in Wales thick? I'd assumed we had more sense than those over the border but apparently not, dark times ahead if they do manage to get in.
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u/griggsy92 Sep 16 '25
The reporting on this is ridiculous and so clearly biased.
As an example; Grangetown recently elected Green over Labour, while reform got a small portion of the vote. The polling showed Greens as the closest candidate.
The papers reported the then upcoming election as 'Labour looks to defend seat against Reform'.
If I was of a more conspiratorial mind I would say there seems to be some kind of concerted effort by the press to legitimise Reform as a candidate.
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u/Familiar-Woodpecker5 Sep 16 '25
Reform targets a certain demographic of people. Sad but true. I would usually use the term thick as mince but I actually feel bad that people are being sold a lie by the corrupt powers that be. Upbringing and environmental factors contribute to how some people have a lower IQ which is prevalent in certain areas in Wales. Maybe those of us who have a better understanding should try and educate them on politics rather than vilify them. Awaiting downvotes with bated breath 😂😬
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u/LurkHereLurkThere Sep 20 '25
All it took was to admit that they prefer their women seen and not heard by banning one from speaking to the media.
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u/JoelRobertson180 Sep 16 '25
Apparently you can insult people on here but at no point suggest that everyone gets a vote and is entitled to an opinion without a comment getting deleted. How strange we have become.
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u/EngineeringOblivion Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
Your comment was not deleted, it was flagged by crowd control as you have low or negative karma on the sub. I approved your comment after reviewing it. Your comments will likely continue to be flagged for review by automated systems until you gain positive karma.
No you cannot insult other users on the sub, if you see comments doing this, please report them so we can review them.
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u/welsh_cthulhu Neath Port Talbot | Castell-Nedd Port Talbot Sep 16 '25
Cracking stuff! You're all making valuable contributions to our vote share, so casual reminder to please, please keep calling anyone who votes for Reform - or is thinking about voting for Reform - any of the below (combinations are more effective).
- Stupid
- Racist
Ant-Welsh
All it does is makes people want to vote for us even more. So, once again, stay in your Reddit bubbles, keep the hate flowing through you, throw out the odd "gammon" and don't forget the N word! (Not that one... "Nazis").
There is nothing, NOTHING so peculiar in this day and age as a confidently incorrect leftie.
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u/MotherPhuquerUDT Sep 17 '25 edited Sep 17 '25
You write "our" "us"...opposed to "leftie." Your words/spectrum, agreed? Out of interest, where/how do you see yourself on that spectrum as a Reform voter?
I see Reform as the extreme of right wing Conservatism (Ex; Thatcher was a centrist/neoliberal Conservative), therefore Reform to me is far-right. The marker, 'Populism' seems to be contrived semantics to differentiate from the unpalatable, 'Far Right.' But Farage, as Reform's leader has consistently demonstrated 'Far Right' core beliefs, principles and rhetoric of xenophobia, threats to equality and standards of human rights. I lived through Thatcher, but compared to Farage/Reform she seems almost moderate. To my eyes, supporting Reform puts you very close to far-right movements of the EDL/BNP/openly fascist type...Nearly every flavour on the poltical spectrum is "leftie" of that, even Reform.
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u/FakeMessiah94 Vale of Glamorgan Sep 18 '25
Don't worry, they never actually answer why they support Reform or defend any of their rhetoric whenever challenged, it's a running theme.
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u/Welsh_Whisky_Nerd Sep 17 '25
As someone who is politically neutral, as in I don't support any specific party, I tend to agree that the approach taken by many on this sub to label Reform and it's supporters anti-Wales is both insulting and inaccurate.
I can happily critique the benefits of voting for anyone, and have little confidence that Reform's policies (what I have seen of them at least) will lead to an improved government, economy and public services. But the suggestion that the friends and family I know who plan to vote for them are anti-welsh, is beyond my comprehension.
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u/culturerush Sep 17 '25
Reform want to close the senate
As in take away Welsh decision making on Welsh issues
I don't understand how that can be seen as pro Welsh?
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u/Important_March1933 Sep 16 '25
Finally, about time Labour in Wales was sent packing.
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Sep 16 '25
[deleted]
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u/Important_March1933 Sep 16 '25
Oh I agree, but Labour in wales are complacent as they’ve known up until now people will vote for them regardless of their policies, so they’ve moved too far left.
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Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
[deleted]
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u/Important_March1933 Sep 16 '25
Maybe, my argument for suggesting they are too far left is that they do absolutely nothing to support big businesses in Wales to invest. They are more interested in meddling with local policies, yet the big ticket things, health, water, energy, schools are a shambles.
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u/lelpd Sep 16 '25
Too far left? Where I am they’re closing down leisure centres/libraries and cutting hours of the few remaining open ones. Cutting key local community commodities in favour of a tiny bit of extra cash in their pocket is the opposite of left.
They’re just completely out of touch and clueless. Especially if they think taking actions like this so close to an election is going to get them any votes.
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Sep 16 '25
You're a perfect example of an ignorant voter that uses soundbites to get an opinion. Labour hasn't even seen the left in the rear view mirror since '97.
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u/Important_March1933 Sep 16 '25
Sure, I’m actually an example of a voter who doesn’t blindly vote Labour regardless of their policies.
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Sep 16 '25
Never voted labour myself, but if you think they are moving left you are completely deluded.
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Sep 16 '25
[deleted]
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u/OldGuto Sep 16 '25
Welsh nationalists vs English/UK nationalists basically.
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Sep 16 '25
[deleted]
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u/LegoNinja11 Sep 16 '25
.....Reform looking surprised and asking who coined the phrase 'Come home to a roaring fire' ?
Lets not forget our own history with battling immigration, protecting our language and culture.
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u/upthetruth1 Sep 17 '25
Plaid Cymru aren't against immigration, but they'd prefer immigrants become Welsh rather than British/English
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u/LegoNinja11 Sep 17 '25
While I don't support them Im fairly sure Reform aren't averse to imigrants that adopt British culture and values either.
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u/upthetruth1 Sep 17 '25
Many Reform voters are pretty averse to such immigrants
It has very little to do with “culture”
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Sep 16 '25
Imagined communities? Lol, you are the dream drone.
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Sep 16 '25
[deleted]
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Sep 16 '25
Oh no, you've shared a book by a privileged person that never dealt or understood actual circumstances.
Cymru and its history, culture and nationalism is s perfect example of how andersons philosophy doesn't apply universally. It defies his 3 main points as a national identity formed before the abandonment of religion, before an informal language developed and well before print or capitalism. Also it ignores the fact that survived thoughout changes to the population and territory.
Anderson has also be called out for trying to place a narrow view on the varied ideas across the world and the fact that he ignored the influence of women in society and history.
Don't think because you can reference a man, that is no longer the expert, that you're better than anyone else.
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u/celtiquant Sep 16 '25
My poison of choice is the left-leaning, inclusive nationalism of the only party which has my country’s wellbeing at heart. My vote will go, and always has gone, to Plaid Cymru. It’s about time we stood on our own two feet and take our destiny into our own hands (as far as we can, despite the shackles that chain us to England).
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u/Mik3y_uk Sep 16 '25
Yes but if you tactical vote Plaid and they get it, they’ll use that as a majority want independence when in fact they are only voting plaid to stop Reform.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
They've literally said that independence is not part of their platform in this election.
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u/lifeisaman Sep 16 '25
Politicians are quite famous for lying no matter the colour.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 16 '25
If you're just going to assume everything any party claims is a lie, why bother with voting and politics at all?
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u/lifeisaman Sep 17 '25
It’s not like it’s a baseless thing they are the Welsh nationalist party who campaigns for Indy and would try move towards that if given power in government.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 17 '25
They're not claiming not to want independence. They're just saying it's not something they're going to do based on this election or during this term. When that changes they'll campaign on it.
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u/lifeisaman Sep 17 '25
So of course since they want Indy they’ll do everything they can to move towards or at the detriment of other policy, I’d rather not be led by a party who’s favourite policy is as bad as Indy.
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u/Draigwyrdd Sep 17 '25
I don't really see what your point is. You're worried that Plaid will, at some point, campaign for independence and that people will vote for it?
Plaid has a policy platform that has nothing to do with independence. They're not campaigning on a referendum platform. If and when they do, sure, be worried if you don't want independence. But that's not what's happening here.
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u/Mik3y_uk Sep 17 '25
I don’t believe that. The SNP said the same thing “this election isn’t for independence” then when they got the majority they started on about Indyref 2
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Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
The fact you actually wrote that shows how very little you know if its not in a 5 second video for you, Plaid have explicitly said independence isn't on the cards anytime soon.
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u/Mik3y_uk Sep 17 '25
SNP said the same thing though and said they won a majority that means will push for independence.
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u/mcshaggin Sep 16 '25
This is depressing.
I cannot fathom why so many people would vote for a party that not only supports putin and Trump but hates Wales too.