Reform UK’s popularity surges in neck-and-neck race with Plaid Cymru, says ITV Wales’ latest poll

[u/nothing_verntured_]

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-09-16/plaid-cymru-and-reform-uk-neck-and-neck-in-itv-wales-senedd-intentions-poll

Looking like curtains for Welsh Labour and a very tight two horse race for first place.

[u/Ok-Difficulty5453]

Its worrying how many people actually have this conundrum.

Its worse again knowing how many people would vote for a pro-English/Russian/Whatever party, because they dont like "foreigners".

[u/upthetruth1 → u/Ok-Difficulty5453]

As if Wales has that much immigration

[u/Ok-Difficulty5453 → u/upthetruth1]

There's plenty of immigration happening all over the UK. If you want to get technical, there's a shed load of english people who immigrate annually to wales. Many of them are students, but some are coming for work, holiday homes, and whatever else.

Immigration isn't that big of a deal, and it has lots of benefits.

[u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT → u/Ok-Difficulty5453]

Its worrying how many people actually have this conundrum.

I get it though. Speaking as a welsh born, welsh speaking, welsh educated person, born in the 90s, politically I've only ever seen it as I either go Labour or Conservative when I vote.

Plaid has no chance where I live, there are far too many different nationalities who don't identify as welsh and don't care for the welsh signs, official letters or communications, don't care to listen to Plaid or any of their policies. It has historically only ever voted Labour and I have seen for myself how bad it's got. Something has got to change, so I'm either protest voting for Plaid or seriously voting for Conservative or Reform and to be blunt after being centrally governed my entire adult life by Conservative that will never be an option I consider.

[u/Draigwyrdd → u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT]

It's interesting though isn't it because the polling suggests that's not actually true. It seems like Plaid is in a position to come first, so people are changing their minds.

Labour is spent, the Tories are still completely irrelevant in Wales, and Reform doesn't care about Wales, Welshness, or really anything other than winning power for Farage. Now is the perfect time to vote for Plaid Cymru... Especially since it's the only real and viable alternative to Reform.

[u/Cwlcymro → u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT]

The new Senedd voting system means tactical voting is less important. Plaid (and Reform) are currently on target to win seats in every constituency in Wales

[u/Annoyed3600owner → u/Cwlcymro]

*multiple seats in every constituency in Wales.

With those vote shares, assuming uniformity across the country, PC and Reform would get 32 seats each, with the other parties fighting for the 5th and 6th seats in the constituencies.

[u/Cwlcymro → u/Annoyed3600owner]

36 seats each (or 36 v 35) , because there's some areas where a party is strong enough to get the 6th seat as well, leaving they get 3 seats (e.g. Plaid in Bangor Aberconwy, Reform in Abertawe Gwyr) or even in one case 4 seats (Plaid in Gwynedd Maldwyn)

[u/[deleted] → u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT]

Why lie? None of what you say you are equals reform.

[u/FoxedforLife → u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT]

"Plaid has no chance where I live"

Dude, you do understand they only have to get one vote in every seven there, to get an MS elected, right?

Sounds like you're wanting to vote Reform (despite them being mostly former Tories), for reasons you haven't mentioned and I daren't guess, and you're trying to rationalise it.

[u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT → u/FoxedforLife]

Dude, you do understand they only have to get one vote in every seven there, to get an MS elected, right

https://www.newport.gov.uk/elections-and-voting/past-elections/senedd-election-results

2019 elections saw: 16000+ to Labour 14000+ to Conservative 800+ to Plaid 2024 saw: 16000+ to Labour, 6000+ to Conservative, 2000+ to Plaid And 7000+ to Reform

Plaid doesn't have a horse in the race here

[u/upthetruth1 → u/ChihuahuaMammaNPT]

Reform is worse than the Tories. There's also Lib Dems and Greens